Friday, April 17, 2009
Thawing with Havana
Reports from both AP and Fox News both indicate that substantial progress is being made, and made rather rapidly, in the beginnings of the process of normalizing relations with Cuba.
From AP:
(emphasis added)"In a diplomatic exchange of the kind that normally takes months or years, President Barack Obama this week dropped restrictions on travel and remittances to Cuba, then challenged his Cuban counterpart Raul Castro to reciprocate.
"Within hours, Castro responded with Cuba's most open offer for talks since the Eisenhower administration, saying he's ready to discuss 'human rights, freedom of the press, political prisoners — everything.' Cuban officials have historically bristled at discussing human rights or political prisoners, of whom they hold about 200."
From Fox:
"The ball, so to speak, is probably in a different court," Gibbs said Thursday. "If there are those that are serious about openness and freedom and any other concerns that might be enumerated (by) other leaders that attend this summit -- seeing an increased freedom of the press, seeing a release of political prisoners. We'd be interested to know what the leaders in Cuba and what leaders that might be coming to the summit with that issue on their mind, what they're willing to do and talk about with those in order to demonstrate that there's a willingness to see something happen on the other side."(emphasis added)
Of course there have been false openings before, but there is reason to think that this time it just might be genuine. Countries such as Cuba -- living somewhat close to the edge economically in the best of times -- need to reach out to new sources of potential economic development and partnership. Second, the Castro brothers are not getting any younger. Third, the domestic U.S. politics of a warming with Cuba are different now as compared to even a decade ago because of the changes in the Cuban-American community in South Florida -- the Cubans who were adults in 1959-60 and fled Castro and have hated him since then are starting to age and die off; their kids have done well in the U.S., and are not as adamant about reclaiming nationalized property in Cuba, and want normalization. Many second generation Cuban-Americans are Democrats, and in fact one of President Obama's largest fundraisers in South Florida, and a member of his National Finance Committee, is such a person.
I grew up with my mother's relatives living behind the Iron Curtain in Central Europe, so the events of 1989-90 had some personal significance for me. If we are on the verge of a 1989-90 type breakthrough with Cuba, that would be a positive thing for both the U.S. and Cuba, provided that the reforms highlighted above (and others) eventually and quickly become meaningful, and are not simply window dressing. If that's not the case, Cuba is Lucy pulling away the football, and we are Charlie Brown.
7 Comments:
By 
, at
Fri Apr 17, 06:16:00 PM:
You haven't learned your lesson.
1. Communists lie.
2. Communists lie.
3. Communists lie.
Your main error is thinking that they actually care about improving the economic conditions in Cuba. The people currently in power in Cuba do not. In fact, they have purged the more "open" ministers--the last two not too long ago.
There is no good reason to believe things would be different this time. My money is on more lies and Pres. Obama being taken for a fool.
We will see either way.
By , at
Fri Apr 17, 06:41:00 PM:
Too soon to know much.
Overall I approve. Mostly because the sanctions are more trouble than they are worth.
Raul and Fidel aren't going to change their ideology. But maybe they believe a thaw help them more than hurt them.
Fidel is about gone. Raul may want to retire peacefully soon. The best way to do it would be to play nice and then quietly step aside.
So far we have given them a flow of dollars and good publicity. And easy access to the Cuban American community in the US.
They have given nothing. Or are their concessions down in the fine priht?
Will Hugo like this?
K
By Fausta, at
Fri Apr 17, 06:48:00 PM:
Pure windowdressing.
And no matter what, $5 says the Obama administration will ease the embargo enough to render it meaningless by September this year, if that late.
By , at
Fri Apr 17, 08:54:00 PM:
All over Face Book and Drudge report. America Hating Hugo Chavez and President Obama shares a Semi Fist-Thumb Power Hand Shake Pump.
http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?pid=1526535&id=68526244856&ref=mf
By 
Escort81, at
Fri Apr 17, 09:06:00 PM:
Fausta, you know much more about the region than any of us, so I respect your view, and won't take the other side of your $5 bet.
U.S. headquartered travel and leisure companies (including cruise lines) probably have a business opportunity in the near-to-medium term, but if you are correct, the Cuban people will remain status quo politically. I suppose from a philosophical standpoint, it will be a little bit like doing business with China, except that Cuba doesn't have a fifth or a quarter of the global population.
It sucks to be Charlie Brown and kick air instead of a football.
By Dawnfire82, at
Fri Apr 17, 09:07:00 PM:
"America Hating Hugo Chavez and President Obama shares a Semi Fist-Thumb Power Hand Shake Pump."
At least he didn't bow. That's an improvement.
By Escort81, at
Fri Apr 17, 09:13:00 PM:
At least he didn't bow. That's an improvement.Heh.
Looking at the photo, it seems pretty mundane, which I guess is a good thing.
