Tuesday, April 04, 2006
Al Qaeda in Iraq switches out Zarqawi
Has the battle for Iraq increased the credibility of al Qaeda among Arabs and Muslims, or decreased it? On that question turns the strategic value of Operation Iraqi Freedom, at least as it relates to the war on Islamic jihad.
Al Qaeda is beginning to act like an organization with a credibility problem. Wire services reported Sunday that al Qaeda in Mesopotamia "has replaced Jordanian-born Abu Musab al-Zarqawi as political head of the rebels, confining him to a military role." He has been replaced with an indigenous Iraqi, probably in the hope of showing a cosmetic change that will mollify the Sunni resistance, which has been turning against al Qaeda since last summer and increasingly since the bombing of the Golden Mosque this winter.
Stratfor($) had this to say last night:
Guys like Zarqawi don't take a public demotion -- even if they retain real power -- unless they are under tremendous internal pressure. Al Qaeda is failing in Iraq, and knows that if it does not radically revise the tenor of its campaign it will continue to lose whatever credibility it started with when it led the charge against the Americans in 2003. Like any Western political party with declining poll numbers, it hopes that if it switches horses it will recover squandered popularity. Whether Zarqawi in fact remains in charge or not is immaterial -- this public demotion is powerful evidence that al Qaeda is not winning a battle that it previously defined as the center of its campaign.
Al Qaeda is beginning to act like an organization with a credibility problem. Wire services reported Sunday that al Qaeda in Mesopotamia "has replaced Jordanian-born Abu Musab al-Zarqawi as political head of the rebels, confining him to a military role." He has been replaced with an indigenous Iraqi, probably in the hope of showing a cosmetic change that will mollify the Sunni resistance, which has been turning against al Qaeda since last summer and increasingly since the bombing of the Golden Mosque this winter.
Stratfor($) had this to say last night:
Al Qaeda in Iraq's chief, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, has reportedly agreed to step down as the jihadist insurgents' political leader to allow an Iraqi national to take that position while al-Zarqawi becomes the insurgents' military chief. However, al-Zarqawi will continue to wield real power and maintain his status as a figurehead. Such a move likely will allow al-Zarqawi to counter the jihadists' growing isolation from the Sunni community in the wake of Iraq's ongoing political process.
Guys like Zarqawi don't take a public demotion -- even if they retain real power -- unless they are under tremendous internal pressure. Al Qaeda is failing in Iraq, and knows that if it does not radically revise the tenor of its campaign it will continue to lose whatever credibility it started with when it led the charge against the Americans in 2003. Like any Western political party with declining poll numbers, it hopes that if it switches horses it will recover squandered popularity. Whether Zarqawi in fact remains in charge or not is immaterial -- this public demotion is powerful evidence that al Qaeda is not winning a battle that it previously defined as the center of its campaign.
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