Tuesday, April 04, 2006
Iran: quick hits
Among the many stories about Iran in the last few days, I noticed two or three that provoked some quick thoughts. I am going to be busy for most of the day, so you will be free to offer your own comments below without fear of attack from me.
Last week I attended a roundtable discussion on the Iran crisis at Princeton University. After it I got in a conversation with one of the panelists and a couple of faculty from the audience, and several of them said they believed that Iran had a bomb already, purchased on the black market. That speculation begs two questions: why not reveal that fact, and why continue to develop an indigenous capability? One answer might be that the Iranians are less interested in the Bomb for military reasons per se than for the prestige, both domestically and internationally. But prestige can come only from an indigenous program.
Now, Iran has been rattling its sabres like Napoleon's ghost the last few days, test firing torpedoes and missiles like there is, er, no tomorrow. In other words, they are not hesitating to reveal their military capabilities, probably to deter any attack that they might fear from the West. So if they had a purchased bomb, why not just say so? North Korea's been bragging on a bomb that it has not tested or proved, so why doesn't Iran? Maybe they don't have one already, or perhaps because they only want to crow about a weapon they have built themselves.
We are also seeing increasingly credible stories of attack preparations. Are these stories leaked by the planners, to stiffen the E-3's negotiating position (one can almost hear the German guy whispering to his counterpart mullah that his country won't do anything, but the UK is really just the 51st state), or are we seeing the opening rounds in another anti-war bureaucratic battle?
Finally, who really gives a rat's ass what Hans Blix thinks about Iran? His absurd implication that we should treat Iran and North Korea similarly because, well, we should, is particularly laughable coming from the man who consistently denied the possibility that Iran was pursuing a weapon back when it was his call to make. Now a mullah bomb is "at least five years away"? How does he know? Lots of anti-Bush experts were arguing at Princeton just four nights ago that it was at least three years away. Hans Blix doesn't know any more than you or I.
1 Comments:
By 
blert, at
Tue Apr 04, 12:20:00 PM:
The mullahs have long been informed that claim of possession is a casus belli. It's a redline.
Iran has more than a few atomics already. She is following the Israeli example: never claim or detonate -- just build and build.
Working to established basic designs there is no reason to test "all up".
Even the Trinity test was deemed a waste by many at the time. Confidence was high. Every possible non-nuclear subcomponent had been tested and retested.
Bottom line, you don't need to test for the big boom to have high confidence.
Iran has been operating a heavy water plant since 1995. They have had the makings for Plutonium converter plants for a decade.
They've had research reactors since 1968.
What the mullahs want is to be a nuclear superpower and sit at the big table. Then they can co-opt or absorb OPEC. All of that can be done without a single test.
Even one test lets Bush & Co off the hook and means their prompt doom.
Hence, my astonishment at A-bomb test predictions in the bloggosphere.
