Sunday, July 17, 2005
Has the tide turned in Pakistan?
Since September 11, both the United States and al Qaeda have recognized that Pakistan is an important battleground in the war. Islamic extremists are reputed to have significant political power in Pakistan, and are said to riddle the government, including particularly the intelligence service (the notorious ISI). Al Qaeda has twice tried to assassinate President General Pervez Musharraf, so he is obviously mindful of Islamist power. It probably also means he hates their guts and would love to see the Islamists defeated, even if he has to walk carefully for fear of giving them a political wedge.
But Pakistan and its government have other interests, and that has allowed the United States to cajole and coerce Musharraf's government into cracking down on the jihadis. Pakistan needs secure borders, which is why it supported the Taliban regime in Afghanistan. Now the United States is the big boss in Kabul, and Pakistan knows that as long as we are there in force we will be in a position to influence its security. More important still is its border with India. The United States has not hesitated to lean toward India if it felt that Pakistan was being insufficiently aggressive in the war on al Qaeda. Pakistan's government has therefore done its level best to keep both the United States and al Qaeda quiescent.
In the last three days, though, there is new evidence that Pakistan is less concerned about al Qaeda today than it has been. On Friday, Pakistan acknowledged for the first time that it had allowed American troops on its soil in hot pursuit of Taliban fleeing across the border. This acknowledgement resulted in the usual uproar, but the fact of the acknowledgement suggests that Musharraf is no longer worried about the Islamist backlash. That development in and of itself is huge.
Then yesterday Musharraf announced a new crackdown against Muslim extremists, targeting not just the usual "tribal regions" in western Pakistan, but Islamist organizations throughout the country. These organizations have been technically banned for some time, but it does not seem (from my living room, reading the English-language press, at least) that Musharraf has really done anything about them until now.
All of this suggests that al Qaeda is significantly weakened in one of the key battlegrounds of the war. The tide in Pakistan has turned.
4 Comments:
By 
, at
Sun Jul 17, 02:50:00 PM:
Dear Mr. Tigerhawk:
Pakistan has publicly admitted that U.S. military operations have occurred on Pakistan's soil. I agree with you that this is a very significant, and positive, turning point in the war against Al Qaeda.
We wrote on our blog on Friday on the danger that latent Pakistani instability poses to U.S. interests and humanity in general:
http://westhawk.blogspot.com/2005/07/i-say-pervez-whats-that-ticking-noise.html
The point we make at Westhawk is that the U.S.'s strengthening alliance with India is putting more pressure on Pakistan to cooperate with the U.S. on achieving the U.S.'s goals in south Asia, including killing bin Laden. Heretofore, Musharraf has believed that he could keep the U.S. on his side by allowing Al Qaeda to stay in play. But as the U.S.-India alliance advances, that calculation my now reverse. Musharraf may now look ahead and see the day when the U.S. gives up on Pakistan completely. The U.S. will be able to do that when the U.S.-India alliance becomes very tight, precisely the direction it is now heading. Now, in order to keep the U.S. with Pakistan, Musharraf is forced to ramp up action against Al Qaeda.
One more example of the importance of diplomatic strategy.
For more ramblings on these and other topics, we invite you and your readers to our blog:
http://westhawk.blogspot.com/
Westhawk
By 
Gordon Smith, at
Sun Jul 17, 04:58:00 PM:
Musharraf, a dictator who came to power through military coup, is a convenient ally. Like Westhawk says, it is in his best interests to keep his friends close and his enemies closer.
By , at
Mon Jul 18, 02:15:00 AM:
Wow, the apoligist is right...
He's a good guy and the "military coup" thing has always been a bit unfair. His predecessor had refused to hold fair elections so he seized power and was to go ahead and hold those elections untill 9/11 happened and Afghanistan, Bin Laden, Taliban, ISI and all the rest (A.Q. Kahn) ruined any chance of reform.
Wow. I was under the impression that some Islamist allies of Musharraf in the Pak military (Lt Gen. Muhmud Ahmed, Lt Gen Aziz Khan and others) overthrew the Prime Minister because he had attempted to replace Musharraf with a loyalist as Army Chief. Musharraf wasn't even in the country at the time, but by the time he got back he was in charge.
Incidently the reason Musharraf was nearly sacked was because of an unprovoked attack against India in the Kargil region, which cost thousands of lives on both sides and nearly brought about a nuclear war, before international pressure forced Pakistan to withdraw. President Clinton found out the the PM was completely in the dark about what was going on, as the military, lead by Musharraf were following their own foreign policy.
By , at
Mon Jul 18, 02:22:00 AM:
Okay, two 'wows' in one post may have been excessive.
Regardless, while the Musharraf regime continues to act against Al Qaeda, it reopens Jihadi training camps for terrorist groups like the Jaish-e-Mohammad and Lashkar-e-Taiba because they bleed the Indian Army in Kashmir. These same training camps and terrorist groups are involved in virtually every terrrorist act that makes the news, including the 7/7 attack in London.
