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Friday, July 15, 2005

US troops in Pakistan and al Qaeda's strategic decline 

Stratfor reports that U.S. troops are in Pakistan($):
U.S.-led troops killed 24 militants inside Pakistani territory late July 14 after the militants fired missiles at a base housing Afghan forces and then fled into Pakistan, Pakistani Director General for Inter-Services Press Relations Maj. Gen. Shaukat Sultan said July 15.

Sultan's statement marks the first admission by a senior Pakistani official that U.S. troops have engaged in an operation on Pakistani territory.

Until now, the government of Pakistan was incredibly careful not to allow -- or admit that it had allowed -- U.S. troops to operate on its soil. Pakistan's President Gen. Pervez Musharraf has been under tremendous domestic pressure from Islamists, including al Qaeda and its supporters, to keep its cooperation with the United States below the visibility of the Pakistani public. If Pakistan is now willing to admit that there are U.S. troops on its border, Musharraf must now believe that al Qaeda's influence within his country has diminished significantly. This is direct on-the-ground confirmation of the findings of the Pew Center's recent widely-publicized poll of attitudes in the Muslim world, which found that support for terrorism in a number of Muslim countries, including Pakistan, had declined markedly.

If you have been looking for evidence of al Qaeda's strategic decline, this is it.

1 Comments:

By Anonymous Anonymous, at Sat Jul 16, 01:11:00 PM:

The Pew Center report is a good read. But it doesn't suggests muslim communities are about to turn in jihadists to foreign occupying forces.

From US 'in talks with Iraq rebels'

After weeks of delicate negotiation involving a former Iraqi minister and senior tribal leaders, a small group of insurgent commanders apparently came face to face with four American officials seeking to establish a dialogue with the men they regard as their enemies. ...

After a discussion about Al-Qaeda activities, the Americans bluntly advised the Iraqis to "cease all support, logistics and cover for Zarqawi’s group". Only if links to Al-Qaeda were severed would the Americans be ready to discuss Iraqi demands.

"Our response was that we will never abandon any Muslim who has come to our country to help us defend it," the commander said.

* * * * *

From the Pew Center report:

"There is also little consensus among Muslim publics on the causes of Islamic extremism. In no country did a majority agree on a primary factor. Pluralities in the range between 34% and 40% point to U.S. policies and influence (Lebanon, Jordan); poverty and lack of jobs (Pakistan, Morocco); lack of education (Turkey); and immorality (Indonesia). In no country is either government corruption or lawlessness designated as a wellspring for extremism by more than a small percentage."

Each section of the report ends with quotes. This one is important:

"Religion is playing a greater role in politics because of the globalization process. Globalization has made new values and new cultures that are starting to penetrate Indonesia. The changes are so quick and so drastic, that of course this creates problems. Many people cannot cope with this change, and to create certainty in their life they turn back to values they know, such as religious ones. It's a defense mechanism, that is not exclusive to Muslim culture."
- The co-founder of a think tank in Jakarta

"There is no such thing as violence against civilians in defense of Islam. The wording is misleading. What is happening in Iraq, the UK, in the US is not violence against civilians in defense of Islam. It is resistance against occupation."
- A 31-year-old bank employee in Lebanon

* * * * *

Poll: U.S. not winning world popularity contest

Associated Press
Published June 24, 2005

WASHINGTON -- The United States' popularity in many countries -- including longtime allies in Europe -- is lagging even communist China's.

The image of the U.S. fell sharply in 2003, after its invasion of Iraq, and two years later has shown few signs of rebounding in Western Europe or the Muslim world, an international poll found.

"The U.S. image has improved slightly but is still broadly negative," said Andrew Kohut, director of the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press. "It's amazing when you see the European public rating the United States so poorly, especially in comparison with China."

Almost two-thirds of Britons, 65 percent, saw China favorably, compared with 55 percent who held a positive view of the United States. In France, 58 percent had an upbeat view of China, compared with 43 percent who felt that way about the U.S. The results were nearly the same in Spain and the Netherlands.

The United States' favorability rating was lowest among three Muslim nations that are also U.S. allies -- Turkey, Pakistan and Jordan -- where only about one-fifth of those polled viewed the U.S. in a positive light. Only India and Poland viewed the U.S. more positively than they viewed China.

The poll found suspicion of the U.S. in many countries where people question the war in Iraq and are growing leery of the U.S.-led war on terrorism.

Polls were taken in April and May with samples of about 1,000 in most countries.  

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