Tuesday, February 03, 2004
Bush's Africa initiative
Somebody forwarded to me a recent issue of Debka-Net-Weekly, the subscription only analytical newsletter published by Debka, the Israeli site that at least one friend of mine derides as "Likud propaganda." On that I am not so sure -- the authors of Debka are clearly hawkish in their tendencies, but they by no means give Sharon or his government a free pass.
In any case, the January 23 issue of the newsletter devotes a lot of space to its take on the Bush administration's diplomatic efforts in Muslim North Africa, including particularly Libya and the Sudan. A big excerpt of the Debka letter follows, and it is sweeping in its vision. If events transpire as Debka proposes (and my general sense is that Debka misses in its predictions about as often as it hits), it will be a very dramatic autumn:
Kickoff in Tripoli
Aides are working hard on the fine details of the Bush visit to Libya, according to DEBKA-Net-Weekly’s sources in Washington, the Middle East and North Africa. It will probably last three days. The Secret Service responsible for the president’s safety has yet to decide whether to allow him to attend a state dinner in one of Qaddafi’s gorgeous desert oasis tents where he receives most favored guests of state – unless, of course, the Libyan leader opts for the symbolism of a state banquet in honor of the US president at Libya’s armed forces general headquarters. That was the site US warplanes bombed in 1986 at the behest of a former Republican president, Ronald Reagan, killing one of Qaddafi’s adopted daughters and putting him to flight covered in dust. It was a surprise reprisal for the terrorist bombing sponsored by Qaddafi at the La Belle disco, a favorite Berlin hangout of American intelligence and military troops, in which two US servicemen and a Turkish woman died.
The teams preparing the president’s trip have so far agreed on two features:
It will be a state visit configured well in advance as a major feather in the presidential cap and a centerpiece of his campaign trail. Bush will follow up his Tripoli spectacular with a visit to Khartoum, billed by DEBKA-Net-Weekly’s sources in Washington and Sudan as eye-catching as the Libyan trip. He will celebrate America’s momentous success in bringing one of Africa’s most intractable conflicts, Sudan’s bloody 21-year civil war, to an end, together with President Umar Hasan Ahmad al-Bashir and the man Washington has slated as vice president, the rebel leader, John Garang, leader of the Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA) of the south. This see-saw revolt against the Muslim-dominated government in the north was fought for autonomy for the mostly Christian or animist south. The conflict cost some two million lives, displaced some four million people and brought oil-rich Sudan to the brink of penury and famine.
Former Sudanese rebels get stake in oil
Former US senator and successful Sudan peace broker John Danforth anticipates winding up the Nairobi peace conference by the end of January or early February. He has reported to the White House that the two sides have settled most points at issue over the division of Sudan’s natural resources – especially oil. They are close to finalizing agreement on power sharing within the central government in Khartoum and the disposition of three small disputed territories in the south – the central Nuba mountains, the southern Blue Nile State and the oil-rich Abyai district.
Sudan’s natural resources were just as much an issue in the civil conflict as ethnic and religious causes and equally promise to be the key to its future prosperity. In January 2003, this Nile state’s proven oil resources stood at 563 m barrels. Output of 300,000 bpd is expected to rise to an estimated 450,000 in 2005 once the country is pacified and rebel attacks on oil installations a thing of the past.
DEBKA-Net-Weekly reports that designating Garang vice president is part of the arrangement governing the disposition of Sudan’s oil. The Abyai district will come under “presidential” control on the basis of half and half shares in national oil resources between Bashir and Garang. Bush is looking forward to the two former foes walking alongside him on the red carpet and inspecting the airport honor guard together, a signal to the entire continent that President Bush of the United States alone had the mojo for bringing Christians and Muslims to embrace peace and coexistence in place of implacable enmity.
He will also make it clear that Washington will be keeping a friendly eye on the former enemies to make sure they keep on cooperating.
On Friday, January 16, Danforth said in Nairobi:: “I want to say publicly that our interest in Sudan is sustained. It’s been going for a period of time. We want to be involved as best we can, not only until this agreement is signed, but thereafter as well.”
Sudan secularized
In more than one respect, the Sudanese peace and power-sharing pact could be an even more effective campaign booster than Qaddafi’s repentance. The Christians, who make up a quarter of Sudan’s population of 37 million, were long supported by conservative Christian groups in the United States whose votes Bush will be soliciting. Their championship will be vindicated by a settlement that gives the Christian minority of Sudan the victory of a place in the sun.
Even better, according to our sources, the peace accord is revealed by DEBKA-Net-Weekly’s sources as incorporating a secret rider between the Sudanese and US presidents – known to Garang – which undertakes to remove the Shariya, or Islamic law, from the constitutional basis of government.
For the first time ever, American diplomacy will have succeeded in converting a country dominated by radical Muslims – in Sudan’s case since the 17th century - into a secular democracy – in a period, moreover, when fundamentalist Islam is at its most militant. The Sudanese settlement will be Bush’s riposte to Arabs, Europeans and those Africa and Middle East experts who insisted America was wasting its time trying to introduce religious and democratic reforms into those regions. Against whoever wins the Democratic race for the presidency, Bush will be able to hold up his success in Khartoum as a living model for Baghdad and a draw for grateful American Christians.
In any case, the January 23 issue of the newsletter devotes a lot of space to its take on the Bush administration's diplomatic efforts in Muslim North Africa, including particularly Libya and the Sudan. A big excerpt of the Debka letter follows, and it is sweeping in its vision. If events transpire as Debka proposes (and my general sense is that Debka misses in its predictions about as often as it hits), it will be a very dramatic autumn:
Kickoff in Tripoli
Aides are working hard on the fine details of the Bush visit to Libya, according to DEBKA-Net-Weekly’s sources in Washington, the Middle East and North Africa. It will probably last three days. The Secret Service responsible for the president’s safety has yet to decide whether to allow him to attend a state dinner in one of Qaddafi’s gorgeous desert oasis tents where he receives most favored guests of state – unless, of course, the Libyan leader opts for the symbolism of a state banquet in honor of the US president at Libya’s armed forces general headquarters. That was the site US warplanes bombed in 1986 at the behest of a former Republican president, Ronald Reagan, killing one of Qaddafi’s adopted daughters and putting him to flight covered in dust. It was a surprise reprisal for the terrorist bombing sponsored by Qaddafi at the La Belle disco, a favorite Berlin hangout of American intelligence and military troops, in which two US servicemen and a Turkish woman died.
The teams preparing the president’s trip have so far agreed on two features:
It will be a state visit configured well in advance as a major feather in the presidential cap and a centerpiece of his campaign trail. Bush will follow up his Tripoli spectacular with a visit to Khartoum, billed by DEBKA-Net-Weekly’s sources in Washington and Sudan as eye-catching as the Libyan trip. He will celebrate America’s momentous success in bringing one of Africa’s most intractable conflicts, Sudan’s bloody 21-year civil war, to an end, together with President Umar Hasan Ahmad al-Bashir and the man Washington has slated as vice president, the rebel leader, John Garang, leader of the Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA) of the south. This see-saw revolt against the Muslim-dominated government in the north was fought for autonomy for the mostly Christian or animist south. The conflict cost some two million lives, displaced some four million people and brought oil-rich Sudan to the brink of penury and famine.
Former Sudanese rebels get stake in oil
Former US senator and successful Sudan peace broker John Danforth anticipates winding up the Nairobi peace conference by the end of January or early February. He has reported to the White House that the two sides have settled most points at issue over the division of Sudan’s natural resources – especially oil. They are close to finalizing agreement on power sharing within the central government in Khartoum and the disposition of three small disputed territories in the south – the central Nuba mountains, the southern Blue Nile State and the oil-rich Abyai district.
Sudan’s natural resources were just as much an issue in the civil conflict as ethnic and religious causes and equally promise to be the key to its future prosperity. In January 2003, this Nile state’s proven oil resources stood at 563 m barrels. Output of 300,000 bpd is expected to rise to an estimated 450,000 in 2005 once the country is pacified and rebel attacks on oil installations a thing of the past.
DEBKA-Net-Weekly reports that designating Garang vice president is part of the arrangement governing the disposition of Sudan’s oil. The Abyai district will come under “presidential” control on the basis of half and half shares in national oil resources between Bashir and Garang. Bush is looking forward to the two former foes walking alongside him on the red carpet and inspecting the airport honor guard together, a signal to the entire continent that President Bush of the United States alone had the mojo for bringing Christians and Muslims to embrace peace and coexistence in place of implacable enmity.
He will also make it clear that Washington will be keeping a friendly eye on the former enemies to make sure they keep on cooperating.
On Friday, January 16, Danforth said in Nairobi:: “I want to say publicly that our interest in Sudan is sustained. It’s been going for a period of time. We want to be involved as best we can, not only until this agreement is signed, but thereafter as well.”
Sudan secularized
In more than one respect, the Sudanese peace and power-sharing pact could be an even more effective campaign booster than Qaddafi’s repentance. The Christians, who make up a quarter of Sudan’s population of 37 million, were long supported by conservative Christian groups in the United States whose votes Bush will be soliciting. Their championship will be vindicated by a settlement that gives the Christian minority of Sudan the victory of a place in the sun.
Even better, according to our sources, the peace accord is revealed by DEBKA-Net-Weekly’s sources as incorporating a secret rider between the Sudanese and US presidents – known to Garang – which undertakes to remove the Shariya, or Islamic law, from the constitutional basis of government.
For the first time ever, American diplomacy will have succeeded in converting a country dominated by radical Muslims – in Sudan’s case since the 17th century - into a secular democracy – in a period, moreover, when fundamentalist Islam is at its most militant. The Sudanese settlement will be Bush’s riposte to Arabs, Europeans and those Africa and Middle East experts who insisted America was wasting its time trying to introduce religious and democratic reforms into those regions. Against whoever wins the Democratic race for the presidency, Bush will be able to hold up his success in Khartoum as a living model for Baghdad and a draw for grateful American Christians.
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