Wednesday, September 08, 2010
Now that Labor Day is behind us, the midterm campaign season heats up. Earlier this year, I predicted that the Republicans would not take numerical control of the House (and that would not be such a bad thing, if neither party had effective control), but that prediction is looking about as solid as a Red Sox appearance in the 2010 World Series.
So, I have a campaign idea for the Democrats, in keeping with the spirit of the cram-down aspect of the final passage of the health care bill. Take a page from candidate Reagan in 1980, when he posed his famous question about being better off than you were four years ago. Take that, and turn it into a declarative statement: "You are better off than you were two years ago, even if you don't realize it yet." At this point, it's not like it could make things worse for the Democratic party.
I called 55+/7+ months ago. This may prove low, as Obama continues to founder and make unforced errors. I don’t see how the Democrats reverse the narrative of “incompetent spendthrifts” between now and November while unemployment is over 9%.
When they came into office, Obama & Co expected that we’d now be in the Sugar Rush phase of Stimulus and that they’d keep control of Congress. Assuming Sugar Rush, Larry Summers told Obama that unemployment would now be below 8% and dropping. Silly Rabbit! Okun’s Law isn’t working as Summers expected because the private sector went on strike.
An intervening crisis of some sort isn’t likely to save the Democrats. Obama doesn’t do Crisis except to exploit it for his agenda.
It can even get worse for the Democrats if the narrative shifts to Obama’s being a Lying Sack of Shit, not just Incompetent.
Expect Republicans to run negative Obama-Pelosi-Reid-Rangel-Barney ads in late October. I’d carpet bomb in the last two weeks before the election.
Looking ahead, Boehner will be the anti-Obama. I’m a big fan of Boehner – he’s a grown-up.
The Deficit Commission reports in December – which is when the real action will start.
Here’s a preview of coming attractions: Peter Orzag’s recent NYT op-ed.
Orzag was Obama’s Budget Director until his recent resignation, so what he says is channeling Obama to some degree.
The takeaway is that Obama & Co have boosted federal spending from its historic 19-20% of GDP to over 25% of GDP. This was part of the Master Plan. As Orzag reveals, the Master Plan also called for a 5% or 6% VAT to close this gap on the assumption that Obama would still control both House and Senate.
Before he resigned, Orzag delivered the Big Lie that’s Obama’s 2011 budget. This budget will result in annual deficits way over a trillion every single year for the next decade, which is unsustainable.
So now what? Developing ....
The House will go Republican,even if the Democrats bring out all their dead people to the polls. The election scams that won them control of the Senate only really work in very close elections.
I doubt there will be many of these.
Democrats (most importantly Blacks and Hispanics)will sit this one out.
Republicans who sat out the last election are finally on fire.
Independents have been lost by Democrat arrogance.
It will be interesting to see if Obama will rise to the occasion by retooling and triangulating on the debt and taxes, like Clinton.
Unfortunately, Mr. Obama has yet to rise to ANY occasion.
So your proposal for the Dems victory is to take every horribly unpopular thing they have crammed down our throats in the last two years, including the huge debt and regulatory burden they have chained around our necks, and to brag about it?
“I’m Karl Rove, and I approve of this message”
Even the Democrats can’t be that dumb. What I expect for them to really do is to begin screaming at the top of their lungs about their intentions to do the exact opposite of what they have been doing for the last two years, all the while continuing their same actions down the well-worn rut they have created. Self-delusion is a wonderful thing, but what will be the most fun is after-the-election blame game.
I’m getting the popcorn.
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