Tuesday, August 19, 2008
Is Obama running behind John Kerry at this stage?
If you are a Democrat, this is a frightening and unexpected bit of electoral college analysis:
A handy feature on the electoral-vote.com web site is a one-click comparison of the current electoral map projections with those on the same date four years ago. Today's map shows Obama with a projected 275 votes to McCain's 250, with 13 up for grabs. Four years ago — Kerry 317, Bush 202, and 19 tied. Interesting.
Click here for the current electoral college tilt, and then on "this day in 2004" for the comparison.
If you ignore the small changes in prospects in the slam dunk states (does anybody think McCain can win New Jersey?), you can toggle between 2004 and 2008 and see the relative strengths and weaknesses of McCain and Obama vs. Bush and Kerry, respectively. While Obama is ahead of Kerry in most of the upper Midwest and high plains (running stronger than Kerry at this time in Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa, and the Dakotas), he is crucially behind Kerry in Ohio, West Virginia, Missouri, Colorado, and Florida.
That said, I continue to think that the Democrats have such a huge directional advantage in this election it will be very difficult for McCain to pull it out. Looking at that map, he has to hold everything that is even a little pink, win Virginia, and flip a couple more significant blue states (Indiana?). That is a very tall order.
CWCID: Glenn Reynolds.
4 Comments:
By 
Thunderheart, at
Tue Aug 19, 12:49:00 AM:
Tigerhawk,
Indiana might be a light blue state now, but so was Ohio four years ago, and in the end it went for Bush, giving him his marging of victory.
In the end, I think Indiana can be counted on the red column, and fairly easily at that, even if Evan Bayh is Obama's pick to be Vice-President.
Even though I'm a Democrat, I'm for McCain to win this one, because Obama is such a dufus on Iraq, on free trade, on taxes and especially on spending.
By 
, at
Tue Aug 19, 06:33:00 AM:
likewise, NM and Iowa went for Bush, although they looked strong Kerry back then. Seems to me Obama should be much farther out, and people are starting to question him.
I'm not sure what directional advantage you're giving the Dems. Sure we're tired of being in a war, but what're the implications of Russia's actions, and the growing threat from Iran?
While Clinton got his ham glazed and played patsy to Al Qaeda, we moved toward war. Will we do it again with Russian aggression to its neighbors?
And how do we maintain our strength as a nation if we just pull out of the ME as Obama wants us to, spending ourselves further into the red on social programs?
By Mrs. Davis, at
Tue Aug 19, 11:43:00 AM:
After the debates even NJ may be in play. McGovern, the sequel.
By , at
Wed Aug 20, 03:37:00 PM:
"Indiana might be a light blue state now, but so was Ohio four years ago, and in the end it went for Bush, giving him his marging (sic) of victory."
Republicans prevented more than 350,000 voters in Ohio from casting ballots or having their votes counted -- enough to have put John Kerry in the White House.
