Monday, August 18, 2008
The return of geopolitical clarity, or who's afraid of the big, bad Bear?
Nobody does more for the popularity of the United States than the Russians.
A new poll, meanwhile, said Polish support for the missile defense pact with the U.S. has soared following Russia's military campaign in Georgia and its threats against Poland...
According to the new poll, 58 percent of those surveyed support the missile defense plan — compared with 30 percent in March 2007, early on in the negotiations. The poll was published in the Rzeczpospolita daily.
It was the first time a majority of Poles surveyed have backed the U.S. missile defense plan, according to lead researcher Maciej Siejewicz from the Gfk Polonia polling agency.
Commentary
Having seen Russia whack Georgia around, the countries on Russia's border have to choose between genuine independence and an updated version of "Finlandization," a sort of quasi-sovereignty that does not leave a very good taste in the mouth. Poland has paid too high a price for its freedom for any partial version to be popular, but what of the others? Ukraine, in particular, appears vulnerable, with policy toward Russia becoming the fulcrum issue in a fight over control of the government. Will that division create an opening for Moscow to subvert Ukraine, or will it turn Ukrainian public opinion decisively toward the West notwithstanding the risks? Either way, the seeds for a future confrontation will have been sown. If Ukraine moves further West, the prospect of NATO membership may again motivate Russia to generate a crisis. If, however, Ukraine rolls on its back for the Kremlin, the West will suddenly feel very insecure on its eastern borders.
As we wrote in the early days of the war, the extent of Moscow's victory in the Georgian war depends in no small part on the reaction of the erstwhile and potential satellites. The next year will be critical, and the United States will be an uncertain player for most of that time because of its election cycle and inevitable transition in the executive branch. Putin certainly understands that.
2 Comments:
By 
Dawnfire82, at
Mon Aug 18, 10:56:00 PM:
It seems that Ukraine may have already made its final decision.
http://www.spacewar.com/reports/Ukraine_proposes_missile_defence_cooperation_with_West_999.html
By 
, at
Tue Aug 19, 02:40:00 PM:
Putin certainly understands that.
As perhaps he now understands he's not quite as smart as he thought he was.
