Tuesday, January 08, 2008
More on the election and prediction markets
Unbeknownst to me, Richard Fernandez has also been writing today about prediction markets and the election. He sees early indicators of Hillary Clinton's dramatic decline in a number of market-based indicators, including the increasing frequency of the combination of "Hillary" and "loser" in blog posts.
3 Comments:
By 
D.E. Cloutier, at
Tue Jan 08, 04:12:00 PM:
At Fox Business yesterday:
"Ireland's largest bookmaker, Paddy Power, are today claiming that the Democratic Nomination race is well and truly over and are already paying out on Barack Obama to be the successful Democratic nominee."
Link:
http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/industries/media/article/obama-costs-irish-bookie-75000_425252_15.html
By Purple Avenger, at
Tue Jan 08, 05:26:00 PM:
This is her negatives hitting. Wide but very soft support can evaporate quickly with only small changes in the equation.
We see this all the time in Operations Research linear programming solutions. Small, seemingly insignificant, changes in constraints can cause radical changes in the optimal solution.
Democrat voters are reoptimizing.
By Escort81, at
Tue Jan 08, 06:24:00 PM:
PA -
So Hillary failed to keep an eye on her slack variables?
Shoot, Bill would have rigged the equations for her.
Obama probably has the most raw intellectual horsepower of all the candidates (Magna Cum Laude at Harvard Law, Editor of the Law Review), and is a gifted speaker. But if Hillary can contain the damage tonight to a single digit loss, and make some changes in her campaign staff, she is still alive and fighting. She simply has too much money on hand to fold up and walk away until after Super Tuesday. History seems to show that Clintons don't quit, even in the face of enormous odds. I say that as someone who believes that Bill should have resigned, based on his behavior with Monica in the White House. Could Gore not have finished out his term at least as well as he did?
