Tuesday, January 08, 2008
The markets say it is going to be Obama and McCain
The Iowa Electronic Markets have a pretty good record in predicting election results (although not the Iowa caucuses, which are -- obviously -- damnably hard to predict). Right now, on the morning of the New Hampshire primary, they are predicting that Barack Obama will be the nominee of the Democratic Party, and -- more interestingly -- that John McCain will be the Republican nominee. While that race would be a horror show for most hard conservatives because of McCain's famously dovish position on immigration, for me that would be a feature, rather than a bug, since immigration is not a subject that spins me up. Best of all, both men are relatively free of "character" issues (yes, yes, the 'Villain will respond "Keating Five, man," but that will be small beer in 2008). I, at least, would delight in a campaign without a lot of personal scandal-mongering.
None of this is to say that I want Obama and McCain to win their respective nominations -- I know that I prefer Hillary for the Democrats, and I am genuinely undecided among the top four Republicans -- but I believe that the combination of Obama and McCain would make for an interesting campaign that would probably improve the tone of American politics substantially.
So that's something.
8 Comments:
By 
, at
Tue Jan 08, 01:20:00 PM:
McCain Feingold is a bigger problem for died in the wool conservatives, I believe, as is his past work against both the Bush tax cuts and Bush judges. Immigration is the most recent problem, yes, but I don't think it's anywhere near the most serious.
Obama is an intriguing candidate, but read this very revealing article if you (like me) have been unable to learn his beliefs merely by watching him avidly over the last several months!
If there are Obama supporters lurking, I'd love to hear the their responses to the points raised.
By 
AmPowerBlog, at
Tue Jan 08, 01:47:00 PM:
Woo hoo!
I'm for McCain, and I'm hoping he'll get some big mo coming out of win tonight!
By Caveat B, at
Tue Jan 08, 01:57:00 PM:
IEM is pretend money; Intrade predictive prices are driven by real money.
Here's my latest posting on NH:
http://caveatbettor.blogspot.com/2008/01/new-hampshire-showdown-intrad-v-zogby.html
By Charlottesvillain, at
Tue Jan 08, 02:00:00 PM:
TH, I know you like Hillary as the most hawkish among the dems, but won't it be nice to finally have Bill in the rear view mirror? I swear, the prospect of him hanging around another 8 years as "first black first lady" or whatever is just so depressing. Frankly, I'd rather take my chances with almost anyone else.
By D.E. Cloutier, at
Tue Jan 08, 03:16:00 PM:
Applause for Charlottesvillain.
By , at
Tue Jan 08, 05:10:00 PM:
Maybe Chelsea could intern for President Obama since that MD thing didn't work out for her?
That would keep a Clinton in the Whitehouse.
I wouldn't count out Hillary just yet; not until she is dead and buried (politically speaking, this is a metaphor, I really don't want to hurt the lady), with a stake driven through her....well, if she had one.
-David
By jj mollo, at
Wed Jan 09, 01:40:00 AM:
I wonder if it would be possible to reconstruct what these charts would have looked like in previous elections. It'll be interesting to compare next time.
By Georg Felis, at
Wed Jan 09, 10:23:00 AM:
So we would have a choice between two candidates who both think we should get the heck out of Iraq ASAP, pay more in taxes, shut up during elections, allow the government to run health care…. Some choice.
