Thursday, January 19, 2006
Osama - "Hey, Over Here (?) I'm Still Alive, Remember Me?
Why now?
1) Well, first, let's assume it's real. Osama is in reaction mode. It has been notably quiet from Osama-land -- or cave, or wherever the Pied Piper of Martyrdom is hiding. Pundits have in the last few weeks argued that he may be dead. Kinda puts him in a tough spot if he's alive. So he needs to clear his throat and speak up.
This is good. Not as good as if he were dead, but a reflection of a guy on the defensive. I'm in the deal business and negotiate things for a living. When, after a long silence, the other guy calls you, it means you're in the driver's seat.
2) Carrot and stick, from Osama? Pretty hilarious from the Uber Caliph, dontcha think? They don't do carrots for infidels. They chop heads off infidels. They fly planes into infidel buildings and kill the infidels. They don't feed them carrots like waskwy wabbits.
So what's the carrot? A truce, in exchange for withdrawal from Iraq and Afghanistan. And the stick? More terrorist attacks in the US. And he promises they will be coming.
Ok. He's on LSD or Opium or something. Is he talking to us? I mean nobody would dispute that Afghanistan has been won. And while I have argued repeatedly Iraq has already been won (by the US), it's not like Prince Zarqawi is lounging on the king's throne in Baghdad. If a US Marine isn't chasing him, a Shiite or Kurd is. And now even a few Sunnis want to have a whack at him. So who is he trying to convince? Us?
No, not really. He is talking to his listeners -- who, by the way, are shrinking in numbers, if you buy into the Pakistani and Afghani and Iraqi polling. He should really broadcast on Air America - does that still exist? -- and see if he can recruit some unhappy Americans. He's gotta get out more. Zarqawi is soaking up all his PR. Poor Osama can't really operate much. And now it turns out the Pakistanis are helping the US roast his best operators and bomb guys with targetted missile attacks -- that sounds downright Israeli!
I think Osama is having a tough run of it. Things looked so promising back on 9/11. It's been pretty much downhill since then. I mean no more friends in charge anywhere - no Mullah Omar, No Saddam, no Yasser. His buddies in Saudi and Pakistan and Afghanistan are having kind of a tough go of it too. And, of course, he hasn't had much to say or do for quite a long time. 3/11 in Spain was okay. But 7/7 in London was kind of a dud. And the follow up in London was a complete washout.
Seriously folks, I don't know if he put this out in the immediate aftermath of the Missile Strike in Pakistan or if he did it in response to growing questions of his continued existence. But this is a spectacular sign of weakness. It's reactive. It's off message. And it's almost as factually ridiculous as Baghdad Bob, Saddam's wartime PR genius, sounded as the US Military was approaching Saddam's palaces. You will recall he was talking a big game about US losses and Iraqi Army victories, etc. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Next thing you know, Saddam is having his teeth cleaned by an American Army medic and is getting deliced. Get it?
I think Osama and his buddies are in a world of hurt.
20 Comments:
By 
, at
Thu Jan 19, 10:29:00 PM:
"tall bearded islamo-nazi"
I like 'sand nazi' even more.
By 
TigerHawk, at
Thu Jan 19, 10:51:00 PM:
I'm, like, so ashamed that I laughed at that, max.
By Gordon Smith, at
Thu Jan 19, 11:19:00 PM:
It's so damned convenient that a tape from OBL would pop up as the President's number slide back below 40%.
As someone who doesn't trust the President, I can't even trust that the OBL message is real.
And...why is some tall, skinny diabetic overlord still wandering the mountains 5 years after 9/11? It doesn't make any sense.
Sorry to rain on your 'steal the headlines' moment, but this stinks of American politics.
By Gordon Smith, at
Thu Jan 19, 11:47:00 PM:
btw -
14 characteristics of fascism:
-Powerful and Continuing Nationalism
-Disdain for the Recognition of Human Rights
-Identification of Enemies/Scapegoats as a Unifying Cause
-Supremacy of the Military
-Rampant Sexism
-Controlled Mass Media
-Obsession with National Security
-Religion and Government are Intertwined
-Corporate Power is Protected
-Labor Power is Suppressed
-Disdain for Intellectuals and the Arts
-Obsession with Crime and Punishment
-Rampant Cronyism and Corruption
-Fraudulent Elections
By Papa Ray, at
Fri Jan 20, 12:46:00 AM:
"Why Now?" There is another possible explanation.
Read this, or the Entire Article and connect OBL with Iran and with the coming of the 12th Imman
Which ALL Muslims believe.
"While there is more than one tradition regarding the nature and timing of the Mahdi’s ascendancy to power, there is one particular hadith that places this event at the time of a final peace agreement between the Arabs and the Romans (“Romans” should be interpreted as referring to Christians, or more generally, the West). Although this peace agreement is made with the “Romans”, it is said to be mediated specifically through a Jew from the priestly lineage of Aaron. The peace agreement will be made for a period of seven years.
Rasulullah [Muhammad] said: “There will be four peace agreements between you and the Romans [Christians]. The fourth agreement will be mediated through a person who will be from the progeny of Hadrat Haroon [Honorable Aaron – Moses’ brother] and will be upheld for seven years. (Emphasis mine) 28
It appears that the period of this seven year peace agreement will likewise be the period of the Mahdi’s reign. While there are a few traditions that specify that the Mahdi will reign on the earth for as much as eight or possibly even nine years, most traditions state that the time of his reign will be seven years."
Interesting, isn't it?
Papa Ray
West Texas
USA
By Cassandra, at
Fri Jan 20, 01:37:00 AM:
Screwy, you *so* do not want me to go after you on that fascism thing.
That is just plain silly and you know it. Do you just like to throw out this sort of stuff without any proof whatsoever? Or are facts ever actually required?
"Controlled mass media???"
Yes... the media are just shaking in their boots...terrified of W they're afraid to criticize him.
What a load of malarky. Bring on the mass graves full of journalists.
And we all saw what happened to poor Joe Wilson. His twisted corpse is an object lesson to anyone who crosses the Bush Dynasty. THEY WILL BE SILENCED!!!!!
NEVER AGAIN WILL THEY WORK THE GEORGETOWN COCKTAIL CIRCUIT!!!! THEY WILL *NOT* BE INVITED TO THE BEST PARTIES, I TELL YOU!
Jeez.
By TigerHawk, at
Fri Jan 20, 06:35:00 AM:
Screwy, Screwy, Screwy. Think about it for a second.
Suppose for a minute that Bush -- who cannot run again -- cares so much about getting his popularity rating up a few points that he is going to stage some sort of event that might have that effect. Do you really think he would pick something that required the cooperation of the CIA? Not only has the CIA been leak central station under this administration, but it has done almost everything it can to undermine this president's policies. Even Bush's opponents acknowledge that the CIA's rank and file in particular -- the kind of people who would have to analyze a manufactured tape of bin Laden -- are as anti-Bush as they come.
You're theory on this is about as credible as my theory that Howard Dean's ascendency to DNC chairman was engineered by Republicans. OK, I really don't have that theory, but you see the point.
By TigerHawk, at
Fri Jan 20, 06:41:00 AM:
I imagine that the reason we do not have bin Laden is that he is being sheltered by some fairly large group of people in that treacherous part of the world. Last weekend's strike against al Zawahiri's planning session reveals a lot about what is going on. It suggests that we, or more likely the Pakistanis, have some infilitration of those tribes, but not truly efficient penetration. That infiltration has taken four years, which, by the way, is about a year less than it usually takes to develop assets sufficient to undertake covert operations in a region. It also suggests that most of the people in that area either sympathize with al Qaeda or outright collaborate, either out of fear or political conviction. By the way, that further diminishes my concern that the strike a week ago killed some civilians -- it was sort of like killing the Germans who lived near the ball-bearing factory. Until they stop supporting the war against us, I have relatively little sympathy.
By Cardinalpark, at
Fri Jan 20, 08:57:00 AM:
I think Screwy was describing Iran.
By Gordon Smith, at
Fri Jan 20, 11:12:00 AM:
CP,
All I did was list some characteristics of fascism. Sorry if it offended your fearsome sensibilities. I'm not asserting that the Bush administration meets all of these criteria, but some might.
TH,
I'm not certain of anything regarding this administration or the CIA except to be sure that I don't trust either of them any more than I trust Osama bin Laden.
The President has failed to win the trust of many of the American people. So now I can't believe anything the government tells me. It's awful, and it will take years to recover from.
----
And why the hell haven't we caught the gimpy diabetic bin Laden anyway?
By Cardinalpark, at
Fri Jan 20, 11:37:00 AM:
SH - did I sound offended? I thought my response was quite muted. Perhaps you mistook me for someone else.
You don't trust Bush any more than you trust Osama? My goodness, I think that says more about you than about either Bush or Osama. Let the readers decide and discern my meaning.
We haven't caught him because it's tough to penetrate 50 miles of concentric circles at 15,000 feet unless you commit 500,000 soldiers. And since he doesn't come out for sun much, if at all, it's tough to get him from the sky.
Do you recommend such a human commitment?
By Charlottesvillain, at
Fri Jan 20, 12:02:00 PM:
Screwie has been pretty consistent in his policy recommendation.
He thinks we should have dedicated all the forces currently in Iraq to finding Osama. And, once finding him, they should all be withdrawn (to occupied Germany or South Korea, I suppose).
I think its foolish, childish thinking for reasons well documented on this blog, but unfortunately he is not alone in his beliefs.
(and CP, you obviously get his goat just by breathing on your keyboard!)
By Cassandra, at
Fri Jan 20, 12:13:00 PM:
I imagine that the reason we do not have bin Laden is that he is one man, hiding in mile upon mile of remote and inaccessible mountainous terrain and it is really not worth all that much effort to achieve that largely symbolic victory.
By Gordon Smith, at
Fri Jan 20, 12:19:00 PM:
I think that one of the reasons we haven't caught Osama is that he may be more useful alive and out in the world.
- If we can monitor some communications.
- If we can have one titular head of Al Qaeda instead of dozens of two-bit bosses.
- If Bush can time the capture for political gain.
Alternately, the explanation is that one gimpy diabetic, taller than everyone else in the region, has eluded the capture of the most efficient fighting force in history. It's hard to swallow that one really.
CP,
My bad, I was looking at Cassandra's response and thinking it was yours.
By Cardinalpark, at
Fri Jan 20, 12:47:00 PM:
SH - I figured. I 've been gentle with you the last couple of days...except over at Villainous Company.
So either you throw out a Rovian insult, or one at our military? Is that the reflection of your derangement syndrome? Tell me, how will you feel if Hillary is our next president? Less deranged?
An interesting question as to whether Osama is more useful to us alive than dead. Personally, I think we'd be better off with him dead, especially if we clearly caused it. And given our apparent willingness to reign deadly force down on senior AQ in Pakistan - considering we don't have 20/20 vision from a drone at 15,000 feet - I would say we are most definitely trying to kill any and all of them.
The truth is, its just damn tough to kill one guy buried deep in a mountain, that everybody on the other side is trying to hide and protect. Like I said, he isn't sunbathing at the moment. And since playing dinner host to AQ can obviously land you in a heap of..well, a heap -- UBL knows he needs to keep a low profile without a lot of human contact.
That's ok. We'll get him. The US government will be around a lot longer than he will.
By Charlottesvillain, at
Fri Jan 20, 03:30:00 PM:
Well, he's pretty useful to us dead if we get to drag him around behind a jeep for awhile, before stringing him up in a town square. Less valuable dead if he's eaten up by maggots in some bombed out cave.
It would be interesting to see how the left responds to his capture. they belly ache now that Iraq is a "distraction" from hunting down Osama, but if we get him how much you wanna bet they will be arguing he should be tried by a jury of his peers, defended by Laurence Tribe? In such a case, he's definitely worth more to us dead.
By Cardinalpark, at
Fri Jan 20, 03:59:00 PM:
By TigerHawk, at
Sat Jan 21, 08:19:00 AM:
Well, Dennis, "organized" is one thing that we are not. But, it is safe to say, none of us are fans of OBL. All of us had friends or relatives who were personally attacked on September 11, and at least two of us lost a family member. So I'm with the 'Villain on this one -- drag him around on a jeep for a while, and then hang him in some public place where people can show their contempt for him. It will not be enough to defeat al Qaeda. We must humiliate it, so there is no question that its ideology is discredited and its cause is lost.
By Gordon Smith, at
Sat Jan 21, 10:09:00 AM:
If he were caught today, I would prefer it if he were put on public display - in a 10 x10 glass box - a transparent detention at the site of the Freedom Tower. Soundproof. I'd like to let him look into the eyes of his captors until his natural end came.
CP,
I've never insulted our military, and you're an O'Reilly fan to think so.
By M. Simon, at
Sun Jan 22, 03:02:00 AM:
This is a war for oil. I propose we make Osama drag the jeep around.
Magic "word" scwwej
