Thursday, January 05, 2006
The jihadis, Iran and the United States
Stratfor shipped around a letter last night($) that hints at the depth of Iraq's game. While there have long been reports that there were Islamist jihadis in Iran, there is at least some chance that they are bargaining chips.
The story starts with this little-noticed news report, in which it was reported on New Year's Eve that an Islamist militant group has captured nine Iranian soldiers and hoped to trade them for captured jihadis.
Stratfor looks at it this way:
This follows reports back before Christmas of an attack on the motorcade of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, which Iran attributed to "smugglers" rather than an assassination attempt.
There is no question that rhetoric notwithstanding, the United States and Iran have been in back-channel talks (which have recently been all but acknowledged) since at least before the invasion of Afghanistan in 2001. The question is, what shape do they take in the coming year? How does yesterday's improvement in the political fortunes of Bibi Netanyahu figure in?
The story starts with this little-noticed news report, in which it was reported on New Year's Eve that an Islamist militant group has captured nine Iranian soldiers and hoped to trade them for captured jihadis.
A little-known Sunni rebel organisation says it has abducted nine Iranian soldiers to pressure Tehran to free imprisoned members of the group, Al Arabiya television said on Sunday.
A caller speaking for the Jundollah (God's Soldiers) said the soldiers were seized near Iran's border with Pakistan, and demanded the release of 16 group members, the satellite television channel said.
Stratfor looks at it this way:
Jundallah was reportedly born out of militant training camps in South Waziristan in Pakistan and has probable ties to regional militant Islamist groups Lashkar-e-Taiba, Jaish-e-Mohammad and Harkat-ul-Jihad e-Islami. The group is allegedly linked to the string of attacks on senior Pakistani leaders including President Gen. Pervez Musharraf, his deputy military chief Gen. Ahsan Saleem Hayat, and Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz. Senior al Qaeda leader Khalid Sheikh Mohammad's nephew was arrested for his involvement with Jundallah in the 2004 Karachi car bombings.
Iran has been largely successful in deterring jihadist activity in the Shiite heartland thus far. The Iranian government played a complex game in containing al Qaeda following the Sept. 11 attacks. Many senior al Qaeda militants sought refuge in the Islamic republic and were likely welcomed by a special cell of the country's elite military unit -- the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps -- when they fled Afghanistan in the wake of the U.S. invasion in October 2001. Tehran then used lower-level al Qaeda operatives as bargaining chips in negotiating with the United States on Iraq by handing them back to their resident countries [You mean, the Iranians practice extraordinary rendition? - ed.] when it became convenient.
The political machine is beginning to function in Baghdad, and al Qaeda commanders are increasingly aware that Tehran is engaged in backchannel talks with Washington, causing concern for al Qaeda members currently being held in Iran. This recently came to light in a letter purportedly written by deputy al Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri to Iraq's al Qaeda leader Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, in which al-Zawahiri urges al-Zarqawi to resist targeting Shia in Iraq to avoid inviting repercussions for the more than 100 jihadist prisoners held in Iran. Al-Zawahiri went on to say that even if attacking the Shia is necessary, publicizing the attacks will incite Iran "to take countermeasures." Those believed to be in Iranian custody include al Qaeda spokesman Suleiman Abu Ghaith, al Qaeda's military chief Saif al-Adel and two of Osama bin Laden's sons.
This follows reports back before Christmas of an attack on the motorcade of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, which Iran attributed to "smugglers" rather than an assassination attempt.
There is no question that rhetoric notwithstanding, the United States and Iran have been in back-channel talks (which have recently been all but acknowledged) since at least before the invasion of Afghanistan in 2001. The question is, what shape do they take in the coming year? How does yesterday's improvement in the political fortunes of Bibi Netanyahu figure in?
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