Wednesday, January 04, 2006
The Perils of Extrapolation
In today's OpinionJournal, I read a piece which is getting lots of digital ink (bytes?), and for which Hugh Hewitt even solicited entries to help push broad digital distribution of Steyn's work on Islamic demographics versus Christian demographics. His point ultimately is that "Europe" is doomed to Sharia law. His analysis is interesting and controversial and very plausible -- and yet I believe it will ultimately be wrong.
His premise is based upon a simple, non-dynamic extrapolation of the growth of muslim populations relative to christian populations and, essentially, says that Europeans are allowing themselves to be overwhelmed by islam. And their emphasis on the role of the state in their lives (in effect displacing family) and multiculturalism has led the Euros to walk of the cliff.
It won't happen, in my opinion. It's too simplistic and Malthusian to argue that the Euros are headed for Sharia law (though it is amusing and thought provoking). In fact, had we not put the brakes on Milosevic and Tudjman, we would have wound up right there with one cultural bloodletting of dramatic proportion right in the middle of Europe -- and it might have triggered the cultural war Steyn would like to see - that is the restoration of a more traditional western confidence and civilization in Europe.
In this particular case, cooler heads did prevail and the christian fascists were stopped. Hitchens would argue, correctly, that a christian fascist is still a fascist, just like a muslim one. I would agree.
Just below the tolerant, multicultural, socialist European surface, there lurks a dangerous, but western traditionalist christian population itching to explode. Just like the nomination of a Polish pope heralded the beginning of the end, or high watermark, for Soviet expansionism into European christendom, so too I suspect the ascension of a German pope is intended to reawaken European christendom viz. Islamic expansionism.
Now Steyn links European socialism to this cultural suicide -- and there is something to this. But ruthlessness and Socialism are not unknown to one another -- socialism doesn't have to be soft and mushy and multicultural. So the analysis has its limits. In the days after Theo Van Gogh's death at the hands of a Zarqawite, the Dutch media (certainly not a bastion of conservative thought) exploded with a heretofore forgotten aggression. Nicholas Sarkozy, in the midst of the French riots in Clichy, muttered that the "scum" should be rounded up and deported. And many were in fact arrested and chucked out. Under pressure from more domestic Islamic social unrest, Europeans will eventually explode -- as our society would too. We are one more 9/11 away from far more serious limitations on civil liberties that would be completely consistent with internment, or the Alien and Sedition Act, or the suspension of habeus corpus (i.e. our history). The war has to be hot enough to provoke this kind of reaction. But I have little doubt that such heat (the onset of sharia would certainly qualify, don't you think) would give rise to such a reaction.
I think Steyn makes many witty and ironic observations (especially about feminists), and his warning is well taken and, as they say, "attention should be paid." But I would not so promptly write off European traditionalists as incapable of aggressive action -- in fact, I think they repress it given their fairly dark, and recent, past. But it may be that German inaction in the Balkans wasn't simply laziness. It may be that they were tacitly okay with it. Certainly the Russians were supportive of Milosevic. Of this they made no secret.
One other observation -- Steyn makes no (or little) effort to distinguish amongst the various different brands of muslims. There are certainly intolerant and troublesome groups of Islamists embedded in American or European society who would seek to undermine it. But, with no evidence to support it, I would suggest it's a distinct minority. Those few muslims who I know here are motivated by many of the same priorities most of us have -- providing for their families, raising their children. They are tolerant of others and came here to escape intoleramce. Sound familiar? There are hundreds of millions of muslims living peacefully (generally) in India and Indonesia and other places too. This broad brush makes again for good reading and writing, but I suspect it to be a little simplistic.
I would urge you to read Steyn's piece because it's excellent -- but that doesn't necessarily give it great predictive value.
16 Comments:
By 
Charlottesvillain, at
Wed Jan 04, 04:14:00 PM:
Very interesting post CP. I am intrigued by the potential parallels you raise between the two most recent papal appointments and what they mean for the continent. I think you may be right about Europe's response when faced with Sharia law.
Steyn is not wrong about the demographic trends, however, and they are really too late to reverse in Europe without a large and sustained baby boom. It is inevitable that either their system will collapse as a result of the huge demographic shift towards an older population, or they the characters of their country will be forever changed due to the massive immigration (at a rate that will make assimilation into the local culture virtually impossible) that will be required to support their economies and social welfare systems. If you think there is alternative outcome, I'd love to hear the details.
The US has its own demographic challenges, but nothing like Europe (or Japan). It also traditionally has done an excellent job of assimilating immigrants. We learned that, at least in France, Europe has not been successful at doing so.
By Charlottesvillain, at
Wed Jan 04, 04:18:00 PM:
I meant to say "character of their countries" in the comment above, although what I actually wrote is probably also true.
By Cardinalpark, at
Wed Jan 04, 05:05:00 PM:
Villain - demographics just have a funny way of not working out as projected on a spreadsheet. Discontinuities happen. It may be that the European birthrate will lead to continued shrinkage. At somepoint, it bottms and begins a reversal. It may be that European muslims either begin to embrace or merge with western culture more readily, and this dilutes sharia-type radicalism. It may be that a Milosevic like character comes to power in an important European country and forces discontinuous demographic shifts. For instance, let's suppose France's Clichy problem explodes again, and a Le Pen figure gets elected. this will undoubtedly lead to different policies viz. immigration and may lead to a lot of muslim departures from France. Had Pym Fortune been elected rather than assassinated by the Dutch, such policy changes might have been enacted a few years ago.
My point is really that extrapolation of this sort is Malthusian -- it gives no leeway for adjustment, changes, discontinuities, policy shifts and so forth.
For instance, until 9/11, the US government was the greatest benefactor for muslim radicals. We armed them in Afghanistan against the Russians, and we stopped Milosevic from exterminating them in the Balkans. I doubt we'll do that again. I suspect we'd let the locals fry them next time. Just a hunch.
And the next guy might be a Sarkozy for all we know. I think Steyn doesn't beleive what he wrote -- he just wants to be especially controversial because he thinks the current crowd is a bunch of lightweights and he'
d like them thrown out. But I think, like a lot of writers, he probably underestimates things like the pwer of the Catholic church and such.
By Charlottesvillain, at
Wed Jan 04, 05:10:00 PM:
Ok, I can see your points here, and agree. I guess I was looking at things from the perspective of the European welfare state and its ability to survive as is, while you were focused more on Steyn's assertion that the Muslims will take over Europe. In none of these scenarios is the demographic problem solved in a way that will preserve the European welfare state. Different immigration patterns in France might change the Muslim dynamic, but it will also mean that someone's retirement age is going up and other benefits will have to be cut. I predict a lot of overturned farm carts in Paris before the issue is resolved.
By TigerHawk, at
Wed Jan 04, 05:23:00 PM:
Let us not forget this passage from Ralph Peters' outstanding book New Glory, which I have recommended many times on this blog:
Yet Europe is likely to be good for a number of surprises - surprising not least to Europeans themselves. With our short historical memory (one American quality Germans welcome), we thoughtlessly accept that, since much of Europe appears to be pacifist now, so it shall remain. But no continent has exported as much misery and slaughter as Europe has done, and the chances are better than fair that Europe is only catching its breath after the calamities it inflicted upon itself in the last century.
We last saw widespread pacifism in Europe just before 1914 and again during the half-time break in that great European civil war that lasted until 1945 (or 1991 east of the Elbe).
Europe's current round of playing pacifist dress up was enabled by America's protection during the Cold War. We allowed our European wards to get away with a minimum number of chores. The United States did (and still does) the dirty work, seconded by our direct ancestor, Britain. Even the North Atlantic Treaty Organization merely obscured how little was asked of Europe. For almost a century the work of freedom and global security has been handled by the great Anglolateral alliance born of a struggle against the tyranny of continental European philosophies hatched on the Rhine and Danube. Our struggle continues today, against fanaticism and terror.
It is unlikely that Europe's present pacifism will last... Europe will rediscover its genius, reforming itself if necessary. There will be plenty of bitterness and recriminations along the way, but Europe will accept the need to change because change will be forced upon it. The trouble with European genius, of course, is that it has a dark side. If its racist populations feel efficiently threatened by the Muslim millions within their divided societies and by terror exported from the Islamic heartlands, Europe may respond with a cruelty unimaginable to us today. After all, Europe is
the continent that mastered ethnic cleansing and genocide after a thousand years of pactice. We Americans may find ourselves in the unexpected position of confronting the Europe of tomorrow as we try to restrain its
barbarities toward Muslims.
By Callimachus, at
Wed Jan 04, 05:52:00 PM:
Steyn's statistics seem to be historically correct, but the devil is in the details. If you subtract the immigrant population in America -- including illegals from south of the border -- we fall below the replacement rate. Is that a cause for concern?
Also, while birth rates in the Arab/Islamic world are cresting right now, consistent projections show them receeding after about 2010, as they already have begun to do in, I believe, North Africa.
Europe's problems are real, and sad, and I think a lot of people there are aware of it. Just take a train ride through northern Italy and see the number of empty, collapsing villas that dot the landscape.
By TigerHawk, at
Wed Jan 04, 06:21:00 PM:
I think the actual U.S. birth rate is just a tiny hair below replacement. Our population continues to grow because of immigration. The other difference, of course, is that our immigrants - legal and otherwise - are overwhelmingly Westerners. That may not satisfy the true nativists on the Republican right, but it is a sharp departure from Europe's problem as described by Steyn.
By 
, at
Wed Jan 04, 06:42:00 PM:
Solzhenitsyn said that Stalinism was "communism done by experts." I think that Islamism is "Islam done by experts." So it really does not matter whether or not the mass of Muslims are "moderate." The problem is that we are forever infidels and, according to the Koran, a holy book containing the actual Words of God, we must be either converted, put into dhimmi status, or killed. "Live and let live" and "Turn the other cheek" are not Muslim concepts. When will Americans realize thas and face the truth, such as that the Koran says that no good Muslim can be a friend of a Jew or a Christian. I have said many times that it will take the second American city disappearing in a mushroom cloud to awaken the populace, including even, I am sorry to say, Tigerhawk. Mark Steyn is right. This is a religious war. Unfortunately, the West picked this epoch to lose its religion.
By Charlottesvillain, at
Wed Jan 04, 07:06:00 PM:
I think the US is repopulating at just over replacement rate, if you take into account the widely held assumption that the baby boomers will live forever.
By , at
Wed Jan 04, 08:02:00 PM:
"Steyn makes no (or little) effort to distinguish amongst the various different brands of muslims"
Tell me, how many moslems do you know that are pro-Israel and express rage against Islamic terrorist following 9/11. Right, I don't know any either so at least on these points, they are in lockstep.
"There are hundreds of millions of muslims living peacefully (generally) in India"
Then why is India building a fence completely around Bagladesh.
"We last saw widespread pacifism in Europe just before 1914 and again during the half-time break in that great European civil war that lasted until 1945 (or 1991 east of the Elbe)."
And the end result of their pacificism was 2 wars to end all wars, and who bailed out the Europeans during both wars. Are the Europeans even capable of finding a none military solution to their problems?
By Cassandra, at
Wed Jan 04, 08:50:00 PM:
Look at history.
I don't believe, really, that all of Europe in the end will convert to Sharia law.
But I don't think the struggle to come will be pretty. And I think there is a struggle coming.
Look at England. We think of it as Anglo, but there is just as much Saxon (Viking, which was really Saxon invaders who eventually were sublimated into the dominant culture, though it took forever to happen).
Look at Rome, which was savaged by the Mongol horde and by the Vikings. It eventually absorbed most of the barbarians at the gates, though it could not survive it its full glory. I think Europe will eventually assimilate the vast Islamic influx, but on what terms?
That is the great question. The melding of cultures is a fascinating process. I don't think one will completely swallow the other. Steyn's apocalyptic vision is a bit tortured. But he is right to worry, I think. It will get worse: far worse, before it gets better.
By Cassandra, at
Wed Jan 04, 08:54:00 PM:
And to clarify, the reason I say that is that Europe has never put to rest the demons of violent anti-Semitism.
Until they do that, there is much to fear from the Muslim influx. France is an object lesson. Whenever Jews start leaving a country en masse, you have to wonder why. When school children are afraid to walk the streets of Paris, there is something wrong.
There was something very ugly afoot when I was there last and it frightened me. And they will not face it squarely.
By , at
Wed Jan 04, 09:35:00 PM:
"I think Europe will eventually assimilate the vast Islamic influx, but on what terms?"
Or will the Islamic influx assimilate Europe and on what terms is an equal pithy question. Look at European history and you will find dramatic changes in population mixes. For instance, prior to the ascendancy of the Romans, most of central Europe was Celtic and even when the Romans conquered the Celts they continued as a people. But after the collapse of the Romans, the various Germanic tribal invasions much of the Celts migrated to the British Isles. So it's entirely possible that if the Moslems became the dominate race, the Moslems could cause European non-Moslems to flee to other countries like they have already down in many of the mid-eastern countries.
During the Crusades, Francis of Assisi thought the only way to end the wars was to convert the Moslems to Christianity. Unfortunately he was not successful. Today, his method may still be the only way for a peaceful result.
By Cassandra, at
Thu Jan 05, 08:21:00 AM:
Well there's a germ of a *very* interesting idea there, buddy.
The Celts never had a unifying ideology and that's why they never prevailed.
I'm not sure the Arabs have ever done either. Like the Celts, they are a nomadic people.
This is a horrible thing to say and will make Screwy's head explode (I'm sorry!) but the best possible parallel I can draw is to Communism or the present-day Democrat party in America.
They are dissatisfied with the status quo and seek to destroy those in power, but they are incapable of ruling in their place because they offer no workable alternatives. If they ever did get everything they wanted, they would implode in fairly short order under the sheer weight of the illogic of their own conflicting ideas and lack of discipline.
I think if push comes to shove, Europe will remember their values. They have simply grown complacent through easy living and affluence. Threaten those things, and we will soon see a different side of the EU.
By Cardinalpark, at
Thu Jan 05, 11:33:00 AM:
Cass- I think that's right. The issue for the moment is that they aren't inclined to wade into the fray and do the dirty work. They certainly will let the US do it, or Britain or Milosevic.
But Europe -- or at least may of its components -- still has a great deal of relevant christianity and especially catholicism. Religiosity was crucial to the erosion of the iron curtain via Poland. I may be proven wrong, but France is still a Catholic country. So is Italy. And the Pope, recently Polish, is now German. This is not accidental.
Again, I think the Ralph Peters quote TH highlights above is spot on - Europeans have repressed much of this due to the demons of the 20th century. But we should not dismiss out of hand the notion that there will be many, many millions of "Europeans" who will not tolerate Dhimmism. They will first dissolve the European experiment. This will leave France and Germany and Spain to grapple with the issue politically -- and I have little doubt they will reaffirm their devotion to western culture. Spain is a Catholic country for sure, not withstanding their last, stupid election.
I do think that there will be a social compromise over time. Immigrants and their offspring will have to assimilate. Or it will set up a massive social tragedy down the road.
25 years ago, people could not conceive of the dissolution of Tito's Yugoslavia and the eventual religious war launched there. Similarly they could not conceive of the end of the Soviet Union.
It may be that this tension is the core reason for the dissolution of a nascent political entity called Europe - and a devolution to individual european nation states once again. We shall see. But just as the media have overrated France and Germany's importance as American allies, so too have they overstated the notion of dhimmism in many of the individual christian states.
By the way, all of this is probably another reason why the Times longterm is maybe a little too pessimistic about the dollar viz the euro:-).
That was for TH.
By Cassandra, at
Thu Jan 05, 01:01:00 PM:
About a month ago I wrote some overheated piece of blather on the turmoil in France - it had some tortured relation to this, but I'm not sure what it was. I was going to send it to you last night, but then I thought better of it.
I get overexcited about stuff sometimes.
*sigh* I need to learn to turn my brain off...
