Thursday, December 08, 2005
Intelligence Failures, the CIA, Taxes and the USMC
I make the observation as a result of a very clever op-ed piece from the New York Sun which referred to Thomas Paine's "intelligence failures" in the runup to the American revolution. He predicted an easy victory against the British as a result of superior American numbers, economic vitality, the ability to build a navy which could compete and so forth. Well, he was desperately wrong in every way -- but we all know and benefit from the history.
Still, it is worth enumerating certain noted intelligence failures and asking a few questions:
1) of course, Pearl Harbor was a rather large one.
2) German resistance at Normandy
3) Inchon
4) Russian Sputnik launch
5) Russian acquisition of nuclear capability
6) Pakistani acquisition of nuclear capability
7) Iraqi proximity to acquisition of nuclear capability I
8) Millenium bomobing threat to LAX
9) 9/11
10) Iraqi proximity to acquisition of WMD - II
Some of these failures were quite catastrophic. The 2 which were perhaps the "worst" because of what they implied for the homeland were Pearl Harbor and 9/11. The cost of these failures was terribly high.
At the moment, there is a tremendous amount of criticism about number 10) above; actually, by far the more momentous was failure number 9). And furthermore, there has been a spectacular shift in accountability, at least in the eyes of the MSM, for these failures from those responsible for intelligence gathering and analysis (the CIA and NSC, among others), to the current administration.
Isn't there a rather simple answer? The CIA is institutionally incompetent at one of its core functions, and has used the media to shift responsibility. Quite ingenious actually. I haven't bothered to figure out how much of my tax dollars go to the CIA, but I want a refund. They stink. I would like all of my tax dollars to be directed to the United States Marines. They kick ass.
USMC or CIA? Votes or comments please.
15 Comments:
By 
TigerHawk, at
Thu Dec 08, 02:41:00 PM:
You forgot my personal favorite -- the failure to predict that the Chinese would enter the Korean War if we pressed our advantage after the Inchon landing.
By 
, at
Thu Dec 08, 03:05:00 PM:
Mis-judging the Libyan nuclear program. (Iraqi scientists, centrifuges, AQKhan's papers, NKMissile parts.)
Mis-judging the Iranian nuclear program (CIA=10 years, IAEA=3 months)
Declassification of Manhattan Project papers under Carter - the source of much of A.Q. Khan's work.
Indian acquisition of nuclear capability.
The ongoing question of the size and scope of the Chinese missile plan leaks.
1993 World Trade Center bombing. Especially the aftermath, where 'the wall' prevented investigation abroad.
By Cardinalpark, at
Thu Dec 08, 03:08:00 PM:
TH - Number 3) is Inchon...that was my shorthand...it was a doozy.
By , at
Thu Dec 08, 03:14:00 PM:
You forgot to mention the 1979 Islamic Revolution in Iran. That intelligence failure is striking when one considers the success CIA officers like Kermit Roosevelt pulled out in the past. 1979 Iran is all the more troubling because Khomeinist ideology and methods blazed the trail for the islamo-fascist threats we face today.
By , at
Thu Dec 08, 03:15:00 PM:
Too true. The simple answer, I suppose, is that since inception, and really up to the present day, they have had virtually no oversight. Is there another branch of government with such complete and broad discretion over its own activities?
You may be too generous though. History seems to show that they are institutionally incompetent in ALL of their core functions, as well as most of their self-assumed ones.
By Charlottesvillain, at
Thu Dec 08, 03:19:00 PM:
Let's not forget the British Invasion of 1964... twangy West Coast guitar bands never recovered.
Just kidding CP, great post. On to the voting...Semper Fi!
By TigerHawk, at
Thu Dec 08, 03:24:00 PM:
Agreed. Da Marines!
We already know how Cass is gonna vote... ;)
By TigerHawk, at
Thu Dec 08, 03:25:00 PM:
CP - Sorry to miss the "Inchon" reference! Doh!
By Cassandra, at
Thu Dec 08, 03:30:00 PM:
That was rather a slam dunk, TH :)
Of course I'm sleeping with the enemy.
In the CIA's defense (though I hate to defend them, the way they have allowed themselves to be politicized) the nature of intel is that it is very uncertain. I've been doing some very interesting reading lately. Had wanted to write something this week but have been too busy at work and it req'd too much research. Plus I will sound like a wingnut, but I'm used to that.
Maybe if I get this report off to the publisher... sigh.
By Cardinalpark, at
Thu Dec 08, 04:18:00 PM:
Cass:
You're right, it is difficult work -- so is being an offensive lineman. It is also necessary.
However, the CIA has been given a free pass by the White House and Congress. They blew it on 9/11. Frankly, they blew it on the Millenium LAX plot as well, but an astute border guard prevented an assault.
I can't imagine why they have received such a pass except that they have photographs of, well, everybody. Sort of like Hoover's FBI or something. It's ridiculous.
Instead, the CIA has changed the subject and diverted attention from its deficiencies and failures. There has been no lengthy self examination. Maybe its not possible.
I am happy, though, that the DOD has essentially created its own intelligence infrastructure to support our military. They will get it right in the field.
By Cassandra, at
Thu Dec 08, 06:22:00 PM:
I hope so. It's a nasty business.
And to think that's what I wanted to do with my life... scary.
By Final Historian, at
Thu Dec 08, 10:04:00 PM:
More troubling to me are what appears to be efforts inside the CIA to issue leaks to exert political influence domestically.
By Gordon Smith, at
Fri Dec 09, 08:34:00 AM:
"number 10) above; actually, by far the more momentous was failure number 9"
The number of American dead in Iraq is inching towards the number of dead in 9/11 attacks. The number of American casualties far exceeds the number of 9/11 casualties. The number of Iraqi civilian dead lies somewhere between 25,000 and 100,000. America's standing in the world is in tatters due to the Iraq War. America has created a training ground for terrorists in Iraq.
I understand that, to your nationalistic emotions, 9/11 was worse, but it's not an argument you ought to try delivering too often. Because it's ridiculous.
By Dawnfire82, at
Fri Dec 09, 09:54:00 AM:
No one outside the intelligence community has any business criticizing the CIA for several reasons.
#1, they don't know how intelligence works. This includes the media (especially them), Congressmen without intelligence backgrounds (them too), and day to day citizens.
#2, they have no access to the reality of the operations in question; I promise, things are always way more complicated than anything that gets leaked to the press.
#3, no one ever hears of the successes, because the very nature of the success means that it is kept secret. This is why the CIA appears to civilians to be an inept organization. All the *successful* operations are kept under wraps, where they belong.
#4, the US intelligence community has retarded amounts of restrictions, red tape, and "mother may I?" clauses than A) it needs and B) it wants, especially the CIA. Case in point; leading up to 9/11, the US Army got wind of some of the hijackers traveling to the US for the operation. The Army, however, couldn't do anything about it because it is not legal for the military to collect information for intelligence purposes on "US Persons," much less act on it, which is a ridiculously large category including citizens, resident aliens, visa workers, diplomatic staff, and basically anyone able to come into the country, ever. So the Army passed the info on up to the FBI, where it got lost. (surprise!) Other, similar rules exist concerning who intelligence agents are allowed recruit, who and how much they can pay and for what purposes, when force is allowed, firearms are allowed, where you can operate, and so forth.
I'll mention two things that I know about that the CIA has done since 9/11 that are worthwhile.
1) Made possible the interception of a radiological bomb en route to the Atlantic seaboard. Bet y'all forgot about that dirty bomb alert in 2002 that culminated with the arrest of Jose Padilla didn't you? The feds don't just make this stuff up.
2) Prevented Afghanistan from sinking into another multi-factional civil war. Fuzzy on details, but it included a powerful knowledge of local politics and some greased palms.
By Cardinalpark, at
Fri Dec 09, 07:19:00 PM:
Screwy - leave alone the magnitude of 10) for a seocnd verus 9), which is a debate worth having...but Iraq doesn't happen without 9/11 anyway, so the point holds.
I enjoyed the picture of oyur head exploding. It didn't cure you of logic flaws. Too bad.
