Wednesday, December 07, 2005
Red sun rising
I am leaving for Narita soon, and will arrive back in the United States about supper time on December 7 (yes, I am flying from Japan to the United States on the anniversary of Pearl Harbor). Thank you very much to my co-bloggers -- Cardinalpark and Charlottesvillain -- for increasing their tempo during my travels. We all, however, owe a debt of gratitude to Cassandra, whose gracious guest-blogging has so enriched this space over the last ten days. Sneaky bastard that I am, I am going to leave her posting privileges open permanently, in case she feels the urge -- or need -- to publish here in the future. I know that both we and our readers would be thrilled.
I have to throw stuff into my suitcase and get downstairs for the airport bus, so this post will be a bit short on original content. However, after having written earlier in the week about my brief encounters with rising Japanese nationalism, I thought you might be interested in a fair use excerpt from one of Stratfor's reports($) today, which discusses Prime Minister Koizumi's post-modern nationalism. Note particularly the superficially similar but subtly different reactions in Seoul and Beijing.
Having posted so much of this analysis, I would be remiss in not reminding you that at $99 per year, Stratfor's basic service is an excellent value.
I have to throw stuff into my suitcase and get downstairs for the airport bus, so this post will be a bit short on original content. However, after having written earlier in the week about my brief encounters with rising Japanese nationalism, I thought you might be interested in a fair use excerpt from one of Stratfor's reports($) today, which discusses Prime Minister Koizumi's post-modern nationalism. Note particularly the superficially similar but subtly different reactions in Seoul and Beijing.
China's Foreign Ministry said Dec. 4 on its Web site that the seventh China-Japan-South Korea leaders' meeting, scheduled to be held on the sidelines of the Dec. 12-14 Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, will be postponed indefinitely "due to the current atmosphere and conditions."
The "atmosphere" refers to the ongoing political spat between Beijing and Tokyo over Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi's October visit to the Yasukuni Shrine, which memorializes certain Japanese war criminals from World War II alongside other Japanese war dead. Both China and South Korea protested Koizumi's visit to the shrine, his fifth since becoming prime minister in 2001. In response to the Dec. 4 cancellation, Koizumi told reporters that "Yasukuni will no longer work as a diplomatic card," no matter if Beijing or Seoul tried to play it as such. Despite Koizumi's assertion, the Yasukuni visits are serving as a focal point for a deeper rift between Japan and China, while South Korea finds itself caught in the middle.
Koizumi's shrine visits serve complimentary purposes. First, he seeks to reshape Japan's internal self-view, to get beyond the acceptance of defeat and move forward, as Germany and Italy have since World War II. Second, Koizumi seeks broader support for his nationalist policies, bringing Japan beyond the constraints of the island nation's postwar pacifist constitution. [See, for instance, Koizumi's very public meetings with Iraq's Prime Minister Jaafari this week. Koizumi appeared to relish the limelight, and nothing suggested that he was keeping Japan in Iraq under American pressure. - ed.] Third, Koizumi is seeking to reshape international attitudes toward Japan, particularly in Asia. From Tokyo's perspective, it is not Japan that needs to get over Japan's imperialist past, but China and the two Koreas, which keep harping on history.
In China, the shrine visit serves as a convenient foil for Beijing's broader attempts to stir Chinese nationalism. Japanese "atrocities" always represent a useful issue for Beijing to raise in order to provide a common focus from the Chinese people. China's leadership, struggling with deep-seated economic and social troubles, needs some way to focus Chinese attention and unity -- and space launches and the 2008 Beijing Olympics will not suffice.
By harping on the Yasukuni visit, Beijing can manipulate domestic sentiments against Japan -- and therefore enhance the Chinese people's feelings for their leadership. At the same time, Beijing keeps reminding the rest of Asia of Japan's past, hoping to keep other Asian nations from supporting Japan's political and security initiatives, its U.N. Security Council bid and its military restructuring.
South Korea, however, finds itself torn between the two. On the one hand, Seoul has little love for Tokyo -- both due to historic animosities and to current economic competition. But Seoul seeks a more independent foreign policy, one that will help it carve out a space for a unified Korea. And the pursuit of this goal makes dealing with Japan a necessity, regardless of public opinion. Korea, which knows what it is like to be the minnow between two whales, is trying to balance relations with China and Japan.
Thus, South Korea held foreign-minister talks with Tokyo even after Japan appointed Taro Aso, seen as a staunch nationalist, as foreign minister, and after Koizumi's Yasukuni visit -- this when China summoned the Japanese ambassador to lodge a formal protest of the shrine trip. South Korean President Roh Moo Hyun even agreed to a brief meeting with Koizumi on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Pusan, South Korea. While Roh said he held the meeting to be a gracious host, he could just as easily have been "too busy."
As Japan and China spar over the Yasukuni visit -- allowing it to mask deeper divisions and mistrust -- Seoul is seeking a balance between its two larger neighbors. Nationalism and anti-Japanese sentiments exist in South Korea as in China. Nevertheless, Seoul is less willing -- at least for the time being -- to let the issue shape its future. South Korea fears falling too far into the Chinese camp, thus limiting its political and economic maneuvering, but it still cannot simply ignore Japan's intentional political provocations. While Tokyo and Beijing can afford the political game, Seoul is finding the sparring increasingly frustrating as it tries to carve out a political and economic space for a future unified Korean Peninsula.
Having posted so much of this analysis, I would be remiss in not reminding you that at $99 per year, Stratfor's basic service is an excellent value.
2 Comments:
By 
Final Historian, at
Wed Dec 07, 04:01:00 AM:
I suspect that it will be China, rather than South Korean or Japanese leadership, which will push the two countries together. As China continues to put into effect its expanding island chain naval strategy, both nations will come to realize that only by working together, and with the other nations in Europe, can they hope to secure their supply and trade lines with South-East Asia, as well as India and Africa.
By 
, at
Sun Dec 11, 08:59:00 PM:
We are now on good relationship with japan why else do they have McDonalds and DISNEYLAND?
