Wednesday, October 19, 2005
Coercion, credibility and the value of the doves
It fascinates me that Democratic doves keep trying to get the Bush administration to "rule out" the use of force against Iran and Syria. If the Bush administration were actually to accede to their implicit request that it do so, it would obviously weaken our position versus both countries and actually increase the likelihood that we would one day find ourselves at war with one of them. Why do I say "obviously"? Because it would be communicating information to the other side that would decrease their uncertainty and therefore be valuable to the other side's negotiating strategy.
However, it also seems to me that every time a Democratic Senator asks whether we will "rule out" the use of force the Bush administration has another opportunity to refuse, which reminds Damascus and Tehran that military force remains an option as far as the American commander-in-chief is concerned. Indeed, that Bush is obviously willing to take endless political heat for refusing to give up one of his strategic options almost certainly increases Syrian and Iranian uncertainty, which is valuable to our negotiating strategy.
However, it also seems to me that every time a Democratic Senator asks whether we will "rule out" the use of force the Bush administration has another opportunity to refuse, which reminds Damascus and Tehran that military force remains an option as far as the American commander-in-chief is concerned. Indeed, that Bush is obviously willing to take endless political heat for refusing to give up one of his strategic options almost certainly increases Syrian and Iranian uncertainty, which is valuable to our negotiating strategy.
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