Sunday, October 10, 2004
Al Sadr update
Why haven't heard heard from Muqtada Al Sadr recently? According to James Dunnigan, his credibility is gone, which makes it difficult for him to talk his way out of his cul de sac:
Then again, maybe we're falling for Al Sadr's nonsense all over again.
Sadr now wants to make a deal. As happened last May, and last month in Najaf, the young followers are losing heart as so many of them lose their lives. Sadr has offered to surrender heavy weapons (mortars and anti-aircraft weapons), if the Americans will stop attacking his boys. But that would leave Sadr's militias in control of several Baghdad neighborhoods. Sadr has been told that this is not enough.
The government is negotiating with Shia chiefs and religious leaders in Baghdad, going around Sadr to get more prominent Shias to openly reject Sadr. Military operations continue, with American troops sending combat patrols into neighborhoods Sadr's people say they control, and killing any of Sadr's followers who try to resist. Then come Iraqi police and soldiers, who conduct searches for weapons, and information about who supports Sadr. As happened in Najaf, the locals in Baghdad are tired of Sadr and his self-righteous thugs. People talk, and the cops round up more Sadr supporters. If this keeps up, in another month or so, Sadr will have no supporters outside of prisons. But no one trusts Sadr anymore. He has lied several times in the past, and the government is demanding some very convincing proof that any deal he agrees to will be kept. To get around this, the government is making deals with more trustworthy Sadr subordinates. Sadr is losing control of his "followers." The same pattern is being seen in Fallujah, where government negotiations with tribal and religious leaders is undercutting the power of the gangs and terrorists in that city.
Then again, maybe we're falling for Al Sadr's nonsense all over again.
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