Sunday, March 07, 2004
The depressing logic of the Palestinian bombers
Gaza, once again, explodes in violence. Palestinian suicide bomber aims at Israeli soldiers, and instead kills a bunch of his own, and triggers an Israeli retaliation. Obvious terrorists die in the Israeli response, but so do children (at least according to Fox News this morning).
Why should this be happening at all in Gaza? Ariel Sharon has ordered with the withdrawal of Jews from settlements in the territory. While this decision comes at great political cost to Sharon inside Israel, it makes sense from the standpoint of Israel's security.
However, Palestinian reactions have been mixed. The Prime Minister of the Palestinian Authority, Ahmed Qurei, made the obvious point that any Israeli withdrawal should be welcomed, but Arafat objected on the ground that it did not follow the "road map." Arafat's rejection was almost certainly a signal that the suicide bombings should continue, and so they have. Or perhaps they would have continued in any case.
What is the explanation for the continued Palestinian violence in Gaza, given the stated Israeli intention to withdraw? There are only four that I can think of. First, the Israelis will take most of the year to get out, and perhaps the Palestinian bombers want to accelerate the timetable. That seems like a poor reason to blow oneself up, but I do not propose to understand the mind of the suicide bomber. It also seems counterproductive, since the Israelis have a higher stakes game still to play on the West Bank, and will not want to be seen to be hustled out of Gaza.
Second, given the perverse macho thinking of the Arab world, the Palestinians want to be seen as "pushing" the Israelis out, whether or not they in fact influence the speed with which the settlers withdraw.
Third, the Palestinians believe that Sharon's withdrawal is a calculated response to Israel's exhaustion, so now must be a great time to accelerate the killing.
Fourth, they just won't stop killing themselves until they have taken every Israeli with them, whether or not Israel withdraws behind the 1967 borders.
Seeing this, if you were a moderate or liberal Israeli voter, would the violent Palestinian response to the withdrawal from Gaza motivate you to accelerate the evacuation of settlers from the West Bank? Or would it cause you to wonder whether a withdrawal is in Israel's interest after all?
Why should this be happening at all in Gaza? Ariel Sharon has ordered with the withdrawal of Jews from settlements in the territory. While this decision comes at great political cost to Sharon inside Israel, it makes sense from the standpoint of Israel's security.
However, Palestinian reactions have been mixed. The Prime Minister of the Palestinian Authority, Ahmed Qurei, made the obvious point that any Israeli withdrawal should be welcomed, but Arafat objected on the ground that it did not follow the "road map." Arafat's rejection was almost certainly a signal that the suicide bombings should continue, and so they have. Or perhaps they would have continued in any case.
What is the explanation for the continued Palestinian violence in Gaza, given the stated Israeli intention to withdraw? There are only four that I can think of. First, the Israelis will take most of the year to get out, and perhaps the Palestinian bombers want to accelerate the timetable. That seems like a poor reason to blow oneself up, but I do not propose to understand the mind of the suicide bomber. It also seems counterproductive, since the Israelis have a higher stakes game still to play on the West Bank, and will not want to be seen to be hustled out of Gaza.
Second, given the perverse macho thinking of the Arab world, the Palestinians want to be seen as "pushing" the Israelis out, whether or not they in fact influence the speed with which the settlers withdraw.
Third, the Palestinians believe that Sharon's withdrawal is a calculated response to Israel's exhaustion, so now must be a great time to accelerate the killing.
Fourth, they just won't stop killing themselves until they have taken every Israeli with them, whether or not Israel withdraws behind the 1967 borders.
Seeing this, if you were a moderate or liberal Israeli voter, would the violent Palestinian response to the withdrawal from Gaza motivate you to accelerate the evacuation of settlers from the West Bank? Or would it cause you to wonder whether a withdrawal is in Israel's interest after all?
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