Saturday, March 26, 2011
Of all the various uprisings in the Middle East, it seems to me that the one with the most potential to upset the established order, for good or ill, is the revolt in Syria. There is a great deal going on, and you can follow it in something close to real time at this web site.
Among other potential consequences, the uprising against the Assad regime in Syria may well alter Iranian influence over that country, probably to reduce it but perhaps to increase it. Regarding the latter possibility, Stratfor speculates that the Iranians might intervene to support the regime and thereby reinforce their alliance with Syria.
The ongoing demonstrations in Syria provide an opportunity for Iran to rebuild its leverage in Damascus through offering assistance in crushing the opposition. There are growing indications that Iran is deploying Hezbollah operatives to Syria from the Lebanese village of Dayr al Asaher to assist in the crackdowns.
Then again, Hezbollah might decide that its interests were best served by attacking Israel, which might have the added benefit of spinning anti-regime demonstrations throughout the Arab world in to anti-Israel/American rage, always a favorite for Hez and its patrons in Tehran. And another Israeli-Hezbollah war would provoke nationalism in some Syrians and fear in others, both of which emotions might work in favor of the Assad regime.
Release the hounds.
I think that the Israeli leadership is aware that the dramatic and sudden increase in rocket attacks from Gaza was the hand of Iran working to change the subject. I have to think that not all in Hamas are thrilled to have their chits called in at this time. Their leadership lives fairly well and I doubt they want to have all their toys smashed yet again.
No need to worry about Syria, though. Sure, it may result in all out war with Israel if Iran is close to losing its investment.
But now that we have a President who stands up for the slaughter of civilians by government thugs and soldiers, the Freedom Fighters can just count their days until help arrives.
Word from Iran a week ago, via the World Tribune and sources in Iran, was that IRGC commandos were on their way to Daraa to quash the uprising. Reports from that bloody scene from Friday seem to confirm that. A BBC Arabic reporter said she heard the armed forces firing on protesters speaking farsi. Syrians speak Arabic, Iranians speak farsi. I wonder what the great Obama plans to do if it is confirmed that the regime in Tehran is now gunning down protesters in two countries: Iran and Syria. Libya was the wrong target.
Regarding the possibility of Hamas and others trying to divert attention into Israel and America hating. One wonders how long they can keep going back to that well before it runs dry. Not dry of hatred, which will endure, but dry of applicability, with protesters and citizens realizing they are being played.
The strategy has worked for a long time. That doesn't mean it will work forever.
One of the major weapons in this propaganda war against Israel is the “Remember these Children” website which compares the numbers of Arab children who have been killed in the conflicts to the number of Jewish children murdered by terrorists. The Arab list totals 1,437 since 2000 and the Jewish list totals 130. Not withstanding that such reporting is unsubstantiated, After visiting the site, I noticed that according to this report, most of the Israeli children were murdered in drive by shootings and human bombs exploding themselves in restaurants, buses and markets. In other words, the Arab terrorists targeted those children and murdered them in cold blood. For all of the Arab children, on the other hand, the site identifies the causes of death as gun shot wounds or explosions during the firefights with Arab Hamas fighters. What were their children doing in the middle of a war zone? That is clear and convincing evidence that the Hamas thugs where using the local children as human shields. Soldiers are trained to return fire when fired upon. The bushwhacking urban guerrillas who fire at enemy troops from a neighborhood full of children are the ones causing the deaths of those children. More at http:moshesharon.worpress.com
Moshe, for starters Hamas/Hezbollah lies. And secondly, I would be willing to bet money that a good solid part of those Arab "children" that actually were shot, were shooting in the direction of Israelis in the first place, much as the American tragedy of "Firearm deaths of children" is really young thugs with guns. But if you were to remove the fictional names, the thug/terrorists, and the human shields from the list, the propaganda numbers would not look nearly as good.