Monday, October 25, 2010
Elections and Turnout
I wonder if that doesn't explain at least some portion of the "enthusiasm gap."
I wonder...
9 Comments:
By 
, at
Mon Oct 25, 01:15:00 PM:
And yet without data, all wonderings are useless conjecture.
I wonder if the enthusiasm gap comes from the fact that the administration that the younger generation fought so hard to remove from power is gone? I wonder if America's younger generation lacks the "America's going to hell in a handbasket" fear coming from today's Right. I wonder if "America's youth" sleeps better at night now than it did in 2008, and does feel the need to get quite as fired up as it did back then.
On that note, I wonder if the sky is blue because the martians dumped a ton of blue raspberry slurpie into the atmosphere. Without data, all of these wonderings have the same reliability. So much for wondering.
By , at
Mon Oct 25, 01:16:00 PM:
By , at
Mon Oct 25, 02:17:00 PM:
The data is probably out there, and in detail. Here's my best estimate:
Re: Democrats ... If you're a government employee, you're probably not disgruntled.
Otherwise, high odds that you are disgruntled. Unemployment is higher in the Blue States, ironically. In those states, higher still among men, blacks and the young. If you're a young black male, you hit the trifecta.
If you voted for Obama because of Iraq/Afghanistan/Gitmo, the joke's on you. He hasn't done anything much for gays.
Disgruntled Democrats may not pull a Republican lever, but they're more likely to stay home -- which is equivalent to half a vote for the Republican.
Which is why Obama & Co are so intent on motivating the base to turn out. It ain't working, and is only angering other voters.
The Young are especially getting screwed by Obama & Co, but haven't yet achieved Class Consciousness. This may happen when they realize that Obama wants them to spend all their beer money on over-priced health insurance so they can subsidize hip replacements for other people's grandparents.
The upcoming Stewart-Colbert rally could prove an interesting tell. after Obama guesting on Wednesday night. I don't think it'll get a good turnout, especially because it'll be on live TV. If it's a lame bust -- as I expect it will be -- it'll backfire on Youth turnout.
By , at
Mon Oct 25, 03:38:00 PM:
Anon Attorney here.
There simply is no reason whatsoever to deploy capital into ventures which may create jobs in the US at this point in time. Taxes and regulatory risk are increasing and uncertain. Credit continues to contract. Fed continues to print money to debase our way out of debt.
Gold and silver are up almost 500% in 10 years and 100% in the past 2 years. Why would anyone put money at risk in a productive capital market when you can earn a 40-50% annual ROI by buying precious metals, then sitting on your arse and watching as the government destroys the dollar.
We're stuck with U3 at 10%, U6 at 15-20% and Shadowstats unemployment rate at 22-25% until we get our policy priorities straight.
By , at
Mon Oct 25, 04:52:00 PM:
We are in for at least another two years of bad economic times ahead--especially if the Republicans are swept into office in droves. Why you may ask? Because Americans demand instant results from a government and economy incapable of providing such a nimble change of direction. The USA is like an enormous freight train needing many miles of track to stop. It was folly for Obama's supporters to think two years in office can bring about a tidalwave of change, and it is equally naive for republicans to expect a mid-term election will suddely return the wine and roses of the Reasan years. Just like public companies make poor long-term decisions because they are too worried about hiting the next quarter's analyst projections, so too our politicians are more interested in screwing up each other's chance to remain in office for another two years. We are not going to fix the washington deadlock for some time I fear.
By , at
Mon Oct 25, 06:57:00 PM:
"There simply is no reason whatsoever to deploy capital into ventures which may create jobs in the US at this point in time." Agreed.
From John Batchelor today: "Rahm Emanuel was ushered out, and his last days were spent on the phone chastising (cursing) friends of Team Obama at Fortune 20 or so. One CEO [probably GE's Immelt] pushed back that the hiring was negative because of healthcare, regulation and taxes. This was news to Rahm."
And Rahm was supposed to have half a clue. So now no one left in Obama's inner circle has any clue that they and their policies are what's turning Bush's Big Stall into Obama's Second Great Recession.
Saints preserve us ...
***
I don't expect the Republicans to do much in two years. But slowing the rate of decline is a start.
We may see a lot of Republican in-fighting. Obama will encourage it. Boehner will likely be Speaker, but ten others are gunning for the job.
By 
JPMcT, at
Mon Oct 25, 07:15:00 PM:
I think people of both parties who are not ideologues simply want the hemorrhaging to stop and some kind of rationality to come into play.
I personally LOVE "Gridlock". It is absolutely a wonderful time when neither side of the aisle can do preposterous things that annoy those of us who actually are the productive parts of this society.
What we have seen over the past 4 years is 2 years of a "neocon" president and a Democrat congress, and then, after they got revved up, two more years of unrestrained Democrat insanity.
A return to Gridlock would at least stop things in their tracks and allow the economy to get the weight of government off it's back. Bring it on.
As far as the enthusiasm gap goes, most Democrat voters are only enthusiastic for the freebies. Like most people who have never had to actively produce anything, they feel no obligation to actually work (ie. vote) to maintain their own pathetic status quo. Death by ennui!
Plus...Obama is so "last week" to these people with the attention span of houseflys.
By , at
Mon Oct 25, 07:41:00 PM:
Normally Gridlock works -- heck, it's what checks and balances are all about. But we have a few problems that can't be grid-locked away.
Bienvenidos a Argentina !
Federal spending is over 25% of GDP -- it'd be higher still if you counted unfunded mandates. It'll go higher still when ObamaCare kicks in. But post-WWII we've never had receipts over 19%-20% no matter what kind of tax regime we've had in place. Go figure.
Bernanke and the Fed can paper this over for at most two years. Maybe less if we have a run on the dollar.
Housing-Mortgages continue to be a drag. This should have been Obama's Priority One upon inauguration. But now he has no credibility to do the Big Sell that will now be necessary to fix the problem -- unless he makes common cause with Boehner .. I'm not holding my breath.
So do we completely nationalize Healthcare and Housing, or find a way to get the government out? The latter is the right answer but it won't be pretty nor popular.
Expect Boehner to be the Grown-up in the room. Will we listen ? Developing ....
By Assistant Village Idiot, at
Sat Oct 30, 11:08:00 PM:
Anonymous #1. Huh? Do a rough draft first, willya?
The youth vote of 2008 will be out of college, seeking employment. The 14-18's then that will vote in 2012 will have Obama's actual results rather than his aura to work from.
The youth vote will still go strongly liberal, as they remain concerned with purely social factors and fashion rather than practicalities. But it will be a far smaller advantage for Obama next time around.
Keep reminding them that they are the one's who will pay for all this.
