Wednesday, June 17, 2009
Alan Steinberg has an interesting essay that compares the national implications of the gubernatorial races in New Jersey and Virginia. The question, Steinberg argues, is whether Barack Obama will be willing to invest his prestige in a losing race and thereby suffer political damage in the event of an adverse result, especially in a traditionally Democratic stronghold. Steinberg's point is that Obama would gain much and risk little by campaigning for Creigh Deeds in Virginia because nobody would blame him if the Old Dominion elected a Republican governor, but that defending Corzine in New Jersey sets Obama up for the blame if Garden State voters turn him out. If Republican Christie is still ahead by double digits in September, the national Dems might well turn their back on Corzine and start quietly putting out the word that they expect him to lose. Presumably, that would go a long way toward blunting the impact of a Christie victory on the national political narrative.
Your comments are most welcome.
Corzine is an arrogant jerk who deserves to go down for the poor judgment he has shown in his personal life. The Katz thing and the failure to wear a seatbelt are just ridiculous.
But look for Corzine to spend, and spend massively, to hold on.
My prediction is that this will end up a dead heat in November.
Another thought, does this mean that the O will continue to use JFK as his airport of choice (instead of Newark) for Broadway trysts at taxpayer expense?
I hope so, because Biden's presence at a fundraiser two weeks ago put the Newark airport an hour behind schedule.
Why can't these guys use Islip or Teeterboro?
I dunno. Deeds might surprise you.
As for Corzine, be careful what you wish for. The states are in trouble...and if you want to check the blame, despite what's the talking point on Pajamas Media, often looking in the mirror provides the best clues. Look at poor Ah-nold, who's tried to be both Mr. Republican and Mr. Don't Associate Me with those GOP Tools. He governs a state which in turn is governed by the worst possible iteration of rightwing and leftwing impulses. So what's he to do?
I don't live in NJ, but I will also stand and say don't look for your Moses in Christie, whether you're a local pragmatist or a GOP dogmatist. Now that's a thought that can be extended to national politics.
Of course, Corzine could very well pull this out. You'll find even frustrated/lukewarm allies like Cory Booker aren closing ranks. I know this sounds harsh, but comfortable suburban white guys grumbling & grousing about a State employed janitor getting a pay raise might make good preaching to the choir commercials, but might not make the numbers at the polls. That janitor and the fmaily he has to feed in this economy may very well have the social profile fitting a lot more people than you think, and if they reach the voting booths, well...
Also, did you check out "The Mosque in Morgantown" on PBS? Trust me, you'll love it.
This is the way it will play out:
Corzine pulls Booker in for his Lt. Gov., floats the rumor that he is off to DC after the election and that a vote for him is a vote for Cory Booker......whether or not Corzine ACTUALLY leaves is anyone's guess but Christie is a loser by eleven points minimum.
CC fell right into the Corzine camp's trap when CC indicated that he will lay off 7,000 state "werkers" after Corzine claiimed he would honor the new "contract" regarding furloughs, raises etc.....did CC not realize the NJ has over 440,000 state,federal, local, police/firemen/teachers all highly unionized? How does one expect to win when they toss over a million possible vote(r)s away?
CC's total lack of campaign experience will show, early and often.
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