Thursday, June 25, 2009
Graphing energy
Here are three energy graphs that might brush you back; the question is, what ought the policy response be? There is room for policies that both promote conservation and production, but most supporters of each policy are not very interested in the other.
10 Comments:
By 
nobrainer, at
Thu Jun 25, 04:31:00 PM:
The so-called “Hubbert curve” might have been forgotten altogether but for the fact that Hubbert’s 1956 prediction… that U.S. oil production would peak around 1970 was famously borne out. It should also be noted (but usually is not) that the predicted volume of oil to be produced at the peak was 37% too low, and that Hubbert’s predictions regarding coal and natural gas ran badly amiss. Extensive testing by Brandt (2007) and Nehring (2007a-c), who applied this technique to many petroleum basins around the world, indicates that the Hubbert curve is a very poor predictor of the time shape of petroleum extraction, that it finds peaks that do not exist, and misses peaks that do.
...
In other words, the phenomenon of peaking in a market-based economy is an ambiguous indicator of anything of fundamental importance to the economy. Therefore, efforts to date the peak should be of little interest to policymakers or the public debate.
[link
The best policy is to get the heck out of the way.
By 
Stan/Tx, at
Thu Jun 25, 06:56:00 PM:
The key graphs are the last two.
The Global Output should be considered as the difference between supply and demand. There is almost no surplus capacity in the system so any upset can swing the supply from just enough to not enough. That causes price spikes. Adding additional capacity is a time consuming and expensive proposition.
The Refining graph is telling the same story of a system where a small disruption could cause a major shortage and resulting price dislocations. Adding refining capacity is another long lead-time item.
With the current government hostility to drilling in the USA and the inability to obtain permission to build a new refinery in the USA, we can expect the country to become more dependent on foreign oil and LNG than ever before.
As much as I dislike the government subsidies for ethanol, at lease the tax money was going to companies within the USA. The current cap and trade bill is a huge windfall to the oil and gas producing countries around the world. I find it interesting that the Democrats are providing Saudi Arabia and the Middle East such a huge advantage in the USA market after so many years of complaining that the Republicans were in the pocket of the oil interest.
By , at
Thu Jun 25, 07:29:00 PM:
I am so pissed. FOX News, which is the only TV news outlet that I watch on TV, wasted tonight's whole hour of the Special Report on the Michael Jackson death.
Meanwhile the House is considering the Waxman-Markey cap and trade energy bill which is much more important. I guess that they sent Charles Krauthammer home early. God, how I miss Brit Hume. The next time I see him at Chevy, I'm giving him a piece of my mind.
JLW III
By , at
Thu Jun 25, 07:57:00 PM:
The news has been unable to focus on what is important since before I stopped watching in the 1980s.
It would seem to me that the global economic recession which has cut consumption dramatically would lead to a flatter plateau on the Hubert curve. On the other hand, President Obama's energy tax scheme is going to cut investment in energy just when we seem to need it the most, and we are still not ramping up to produce enough nuclear power to replace what we are going to be losing.
By , at
Fri Jun 26, 09:36:00 AM:
Another worthwhile graphic to consider: Powerline today publishes a GOP chart, illustrating the intrusion of government into our lives from Waxman-Markey.
By , at
Fri Jun 26, 02:11:00 PM:
Here is the Democrat leadership summary of the effects of Waxman-Markey. You'll notice the main impact is to raise taxes on industry, and send nearly the entire amount to individuals, with the government acting as a clearinghouse. Since the transfer payments are means tested, this bill is revealed as a massive tax increase to fund welfare. As the GOP chart reveals (see previous post), this transfer will be accompanied by an enormous increase in government monitoring of private lives and policy impacts on family spending choices.
By , at
Fri Jun 26, 06:02:00 PM:
What is absolutely incredible is that the Dem's are having problems pushing the W-M bill through. They control the House by a big margin, and the have the White House, yet Pelosi is slipping bribes to anyone who asks trying to get the bill voted up and not down. That problem tells me this is political theater: the leadership obviously knows they can never get this through the Senate, given the divisions among Democrats on the bill, and so they must be hoping to be able to say, "Well, we tried, but the special interests fought us and so you should give us an even bigger majority next Congress". Pure BS, obviously, but at least it isn't "Well, we're pretty sure our agenda is bad for America so we didn't pass it."
By , at
Fri Jun 26, 07:14:00 PM:
Link reporting from Congress -- I've had C-Span on while I've been doing my day job. This revises an earlier post.
It's now 7:00 pm, and the House is voting on Waxman-Markey as I write.
Missing pages. There were 300 pages of changes from last night that most in Congress hadn't seen. That's on top of the 300 from Wednesday. Around 4pm Gohmert hit on this, and Burton piled on -- the Democrats wouldn't answer the direct question: Is there even a single copy available? or even physically somewhere in the building? Markey was especially full of shit and dissembling on this. Actually, there wasn't at that point in time -- some clerk was still putting it together. You can't make this up.
General debate. The Republicans did well at beating on this pinata -- this bill is awful -- I can't shout it loud enough. Devin Nunes made a good impression. He's a young Republican Hispanic Congressman from California. He's got a bright future. Rush might even let him clean his pool.
Boehner used a procedural trick to get an hour at the end. He went through the bill picking off idiocies in agonizing detail. On top of all the other problems it has, it's a Rube Goldberg bureaucratic contraption. I never paid much attention to Boehner before ... I was Link reporting from Congress -- I've had C-Span on while I've been doing my day job. This revises an earlier post.
It's now 7:00 pm, and the House is voting on Waxman-Markey as I write.
Missing pages. There were 300 pages of changes from last night that most in Congress hadn't seen. That's on top of the 300 from Wednesday. Around 4pm Gohmert hit on this, and Burton piled on -- the Democrats wouldn't answer the direct question: Is there even a single copy available? or even physically somewhere in the building? Markey was especially full of shit and dissembling on this. Actually, there wasn't at that point in time -- some clerk was still putting it together. You can't make this up.
General debate. The Republicans did well at beating on this pinata -- this bill is awful -- I can't shout it loud enough. Devin Nunes made a good impression. He's a young Republican Hispanic Congressman from California. He's got a bright future. Rush might even let him clean his pool.
Boehner used a procedural trick to get an hour at the end. He went through the bill picking off idiocies in agonizing detail. On top of all the other problems it has, it's a Rube Goldberg bureaucratic contraption. I never paid much attention to Boehner before ... I was impressed. I know he wants it pronounced BAY-ner, but I know how I want to pronounce it.
Boehner said this was one of the more important legislative decisions we've seen in a 100 years. If it does get through, he may be right -- it's that bad. I expect Nancy had the votes in the House going in, and 98% of Americans are oblivious, MSM included. If Nancy loses, credit to Boehner & Co for turning a few Democrats to basic rationality. It will be close, as Nancy will let some vote no so they're not exposed.
So I expect we're off to the Senate, about which I'm clueless. Resistance? Even more pork? I expect McCain's last stand. Developing ....
Link, over
By , at
Fri Jun 26, 08:13:00 PM:
Thank you Link. As I said earlier- if Nancy can't get this through her pet HofR, the Senate looks bleak. Wake up America- this is what your political leadership looks like when they're trying to take the bread out of your childrens mouths!
By , at
Sat Jun 27, 01:06:00 AM:
If you could, please post the charts for Peak Nuclear, Peak Solar.
Cheers!
anon,
Bob Dobb
