Saturday, November 22, 2008
Oil prices and the balance of power in the Gulf
With the price of oil having fallen roughly 70% since July, we might wonder what the impact will be on the balance of power in the Persian Gulf. In a very interesting article about Aramco, the Saudi state oil company, George Friedman captures the Saudi perspective rather neatly:
"The Saudis are not unhappy to see lower oil prices squeezing Iran," says George Friedman, chief executive of the Austin, Tex. intelligence outfit Stratfor. "They just don't want prices to get low enough that it forces Iran to do something crazy."
Discuss.
6 Comments:
By 
, at
Sat Nov 22, 10:12:00 AM:
""The Saudis are not unhappy to see lower oil prices squeezing Iran "...but not unhappy enough to actually do something. They'd rather wait for something beneficial to "happen". I think that if they were actually unhappy with Iran they would do something proactive instead of waiting for something to react to. The Saudis are only concerned with the Saudis and any inconveniences to the Saudis and no one else.
By 
Viking Kaj, at
Sat Nov 22, 10:14:00 AM:
I saw a comment from the Saudis a few years ago along the lines that if the US disengaged in Iran in a hurry that the Saudis might have to consider acquiring a nuclear option as a counter to Iran in the region. We haven't heard anything lately about this lately but I'm sure if they wanted a nuke they could get one, probably from China. So I think the Saudis take the Iranian threat seriously.
Iran apparently has some inherent instability. The younger generation forms a large part of the populace. Young Iranians are fairly well educated and tend to be less interested in revolutionary sacrifice and more interested in consumer goods. Material comfort in a lot of places has taken the place of human rights. If the theocracy can no longer deliver there might be some issues.
So what level is too low? A level that tends to destabilize the theocracy? If this results in a more democratic but less extreme Iran some destabilization might not be a bad thing.
By , at
Sat Nov 22, 10:55:00 AM:
You mean the Iranians wouldn't do something crazy if they had like a gazillion dollars?
You mean if they had a gazillion dollars they wouldn't be spending for nukes, or in Lebanon or Gaza, or trading with the North Koreans, or installing Hezbollah in South America, or in Ecuador, or in Iraq and Afghanistan?
Whew, that's a load off my mind.
By , at
Sat Nov 22, 10:59:00 AM:
Sorry for that double South America/Ecuador, know they are in the same continent, just need some java this am.
By , at
Sat Nov 22, 11:28:00 AM:
Oh please, please. Oh please please.
Iran do something crazy
Please.
By , at
Sat Nov 22, 12:29:00 PM:
Obama is given canned expert advice
Hassan Daie:
"Dear friends, A few days ago, Trita Parsi (IRI lobbyist) et al presented in the Senatea report that was already published in 2007 under Trita Parsi's name. Please read my article and send it to your friends".
American Chronicle:
http://www.americanchronicle.com/articles/81956
In addition to this "classic" lobbying effort, mullahs have now focused on using the mafia web of businesses connected to them to influence the US policies towards their interests. Naturally, some American businesses which see financial benefits in dealing with Iran and entering Iran’s markets have not resisted lining up with Iran’s financial Mafia.
To recruit Iranian-American executives of the US companies as new members to its web, the Iranian regime, has undertaken a new initiative spearheaded by Siamak Namazi in Tehran. In June 2007, the newly founded organization called the "International Association of Iranian Managers (I-AIM) held a major workshop in Tehran.10
Abbas Maleki, the Iranian deputy foreign minister under Rafsanjani, advisor to the Supreme Leader and one of the chief organizers of Iranian lobby in the US, was one of the key speakers. Hassan Alaghband from Balli group was another key speaker and one of the main supporters of the event. Namazi is certainly a known figure in the Mullah’s lobby machinery in the West. Following the trails from this meeting leads to the discovery of the broadening web of influence of mullahs in the US involving some new players and many of the familiar faces of the Mafia web.11
The Iranian lobby in the US is financially fed by sources that are conspicuously tangled with Tehran’s interests. One jaw dropping example: Vahid Alaghband (the elder brother) is a major donor (among very few) and an "ambassador and supporter extraordinaire" of US based Parsa foundation.12 -13-14 This group has, in turn, been a principal financial supporter of NIAC in 2007. It is, indeed, a small world!
Certainly there is strong evidence than the Mullahs’ web of influence in the US, including a number of lobby organizations, business interests and pseudo-academics are hard at work to reduce pressure on Tehran and buy them time to pursue their aspiration to gain hegemony in the region and the world. The unavoidable end result may be a catastrophic war between Iran and the US. To prevent that war, we must stop the Iranian lobby and their American cohort enterprises. This is not the case of a smuggler helping a mullah get an airplane ride. This is a matter of national security and the interest of the Iranian and American people.
Notes:
1- http://www.bis.doc.gov/news/2008/bis_tdo03212008.html
2- Bob Ney's plea agreement: http://www.usdoj.gov/opa/pr/2006/September/06_crm_622.html
3- Iranian newspaper: http://baztab.com/news/24835.php
4- Iran versus Fouad ALzayat in British court http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/law/article3505782.ece
5- Vahid Alaghband's 11 month prison: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000100&sid=aEodr6ltrnoQ&refer=germany
6- Vahid and Hassan Alaghband sentenced for fiduciary duties: http://www.kloeckner.de/investor/en/pm.php?type=pm&id=92&year=2005
7- Ney told AIC in a June 2001 speech. http://www.american-iranian.org/pubs/aicupdate/05262005.html
8- Iran's Oil Mafia: http://www.frontpagemag.com/Articles/Read.aspx?GUID=b30e945b-5f1f-4a57-a7aa-f4975d12fc4c
9- Aftab Newspaper, http://www.aftabnews.ir/vdccpoq2biqpp.html
10- I-Aim 23-28nJune event: http://www.i-aim.org/content/en/video-entrepreneurship/video-entrepreneurship%20.aspx
11- I-Aim 23-28nJune event: http://www.i-aim.org/content/en/video-entrepreneurship/video-entrepreneurship%20.aspx
12- Parsa's major donors: http://www.parsacf.org/honor-roll/honor roll/avicenna/?searchterm=vahid%20alaghband
