Friday, August 08, 2008
On the prowl: The Bear moves on South Ossetia
What with the day job and the John Edwards thing, I've been remiss in not writing about Russia's attack on our staunch ally, Georgia (Strategypage background). As it is, I have not thought deeply about it other than to generate a series of alcohol-influenced, speculative, and probably ultimately ignorant reactions:
Vladimir Putin is exploiting George W. Bush's weakness, which is brought on by the fact that he is thought to be too unpopular and his administration too distracted for the United States to mount effective opposition to the Russian attack. The United States has invested credibility in Georgia's security (the article notes that 1000 United States Marines were in the country just last month on a training mission). If we do not respond in some fairly firm way other former Soviet states are going to wonder, with more than a little justification, whether our friendship is valuable. The reaction of the various former Soviet states -- Ukraine, the 'Stans, and so forth -- will be very interesting and potentially enormously significant for the security of both Europe and central Asia. The Europeans will intensify their recent internal debate about their security against resurgent Russian expansionism. The doves will campaign for appeasement and anti-Americanism, and the realists will call for closer ties with the United States. This debate will replay, in modern terms, the intra-European arguments of the early Cold War (for the full story read the single best history of that long conflict). John Noonan is already arguing that Russia would not have invaded if NATO had taken George Bush's advice and admitted Georgia. Maybe, or perhaps NATO's credibility would now also lie in tatters.
How will the Chinese react? It may have been no accident that Putin launched the attack on a day that he knew, months in advance, that he would be with both George W. Bush and Hu Jintao. Perhaps they will provide the security in Central Asia that the United States now seems unable to guarantee Today's invasion may well increase the likelihood that the United States and Iran reach an accomodation. Or it will increase the likelihood that Russia will send military aid to Iran to pin down the U.S. from the rear. Either way, Iran just got less secure -- and it is already feeling insecure -- and even more important to the two biggest players in the region -- and it is already very important. Watch what Iran does, not what it says. This attack seems well-coordinated enough that it had to have been planned for some time. The claimed provocation of Georgia's incursion into South Ossetia -- a breakway province that is, after all, recognized as Georgian territory -- is probably just pretext. According to the linked article, Russia attacked Georgia's facilities for exporting oil. Of course, Russia is a huge oil exporter and would benefit if oil returned to its prices of only a month ago. Amazingly, the price of oil did not spike even after news of the invasion. That suggests that the dynamics of that market have turned decisively, er, bearish. The crisis does offer a study in contrasts between the two American presidential candidates. The left believes that Barack Obama's response is superior on its face to John McCain's, and I would say the reverse.
Release the hounds.
MORE: The Foreign Policy blog also has a round-up. With a reputation to protect, it naturally refrained from its own speculative efforts, as have most blogs covering the story. FP does, however, point to James Joyner's comprehensive post.
SATURDAY MORNING BONUS: I put up a Stratfor conflict map and some of their commentary here.
CWCID: Glenn Reynolds, for the Strategypage link. Other links from Memeorandum.
27 Comments:
By 
, at
Fri Aug 08, 11:24:00 PM:
There is no realistic notion of sentiment on anyone's part here, regardless of all the talk about ethnic solidarity, etc. between North and South Ossetia; only cold calculation.
1) This move by Russia is coldly calculated to tell NATO to "keep of the grass". This is frontier of the Rodina and the Russians WILL protect it.
2) The NATO nations of Europe are mostly sheeple, and will make noise but do nothing to help Georgia. Bush should be shrewd and try to embarrass the Russians at the UN, for starters.
3)This is also a message to the other border republics that "the Bear is back", and will once again be playing the "Great Game".
4) Hard to predict the effect on Iran, but if blockhead Aminejehad is ousted in the near future (a year?), and Iran looks for some kind of reconciliation with the US, you can bet that they are suddenly a lot more afraid of the Big Bear than the Great Satan. They haven't forgotten what the Soviets did to Afghanistan in the '80's, even if most of the rest of the world has washed it down the memory hole.
4) Expect oil prices to spike up again within two weeks. The speculation bubble burst is over. Fear returns to Frogtown.
Let's see how big a faux-Euro-weenie Obama is in this situation. I'm betting he says some truly progressive and things, and works in criticism of the Bush administration to maintain his cred.
-David
By , at
Sat Aug 09, 01:03:00 AM:
I don't have a doubt in my mind that it was planned for right now. It's not about where putin is -- it's about the fact that europeans won't want to do anything even remotely aggressive during the games. Not that they are generally inclined to anyway.
Putin knows his Hitler, Mussolini and his Stalin.
By 
Caleb Bradshaw, at
Sat Aug 09, 08:00:00 AM:
It may have been no accident that Putin launched the attack on a day that he knew, months in advance, that he would be with both George W. Bush and Hu Jintao
Putin launched the attack on the day after Saakashivili demolished the capital of South Ossetia, killing more than a thousand of civilians. Since this confrontation was started by Georgia, not by Russia, this talk about timing is silly.
By He-Devil, at
Sat Aug 09, 08:39:00 AM:
This comment has been removed by the author.
By Caleb Bradshaw, at
Sat Aug 09, 08:40:00 AM:
Here's a translation from the owner of the most pro-Western radio in Russia:
"I've got a call from my friends in Pekin, who are pretty close to Putin. They said they saw him at the reception, and he was all pale and shaken with surprise. It was a total surprise. Both Foreign Minister and Minister of Defense had to cancel their vacations. Nobody had any idea."
The idea that this was timed by Putin is absolutely ridiculous.
By TigerHawk, at
Sat Aug 09, 08:45:00 AM:
The idea that this was timed by Putin is absolutely ridiculous.
Possibly. I claim no special knowledge, and I agree that Putin could not have known that the perfect pretext would come along on Friday. My only observation is that the Russian attack seemed to be very well-planned with pre-positioned units executing on a specific plan. It seems unlikely to me that the Russians were not planning this for some time. Perhaps their military has improved tremendously since Soviet days (when such a quick response would have been impossible); if so, that is another thing to worry about.
Anyway, the bullet points above were meant to be quick speculations, and I very much welcome more informed observations.
By tim maguire, at
Sat Aug 09, 08:53:00 AM:
This was clearly planned, even if the specific timing was not. David also has some very good observations. This may be the restart of the cold war and with Russia's finger on the European light switch, we are not well positioned. Russians know how to suffer. Europeans no longer do but they may be about to relearn it.
By , at
Sat Aug 09, 09:00:00 AM:
Well I think we should consider the possibility that maybe this was planned and Putin didn't know. He'd be "all pale and shaken with surprise" if something of this magnitude was planned and executed without his knowledge or approval.
By Greg Toombs, at
Sat Aug 09, 09:06:00 AM:
Re: 'Nikolay' 8:40am
If what you say is true, then Putin is either a liar or has no control over the Russian military.
Which is it?
Either answer is bad news.
By , at
Sat Aug 09, 09:17:00 AM:
"Putin launched the attack on the day after Saakashivili demolished the capital of South Ossetia, killing more than a thousand of civilians. Since this confrontation was started by Georgia, not by Russia, this talk about timing is silly."
Read your own comment.
Russia managed to put together a major combined arms force, including tanks, APCs, and a huge amount of support troops, in ONE DAY, and get them 60 miles into Ossetia?
No friggin' way.
The final preparation for this started at least a week ago (and considering the current state of the Russian military, closer to a month).
If Putin was truly "shaken" about this, it's either because he was completely out of the loop, or he wasn't prepared to be confronted about it so fast or so strongly.
By Caleb Bradshaw, at
Sat Aug 09, 09:57:00 AM:
You have to understand a simple thing -- the response of Russia was pretty much automatic. Saakashvili had to understand that you can't kill the civilians with Russian passports by the hundreds and not have Russia respond. Of course, the fact that they had Russian passports in the first place was a sign of Russian passive aggression, but that was not some fresh development, but status quo as it had developed over fifteen years.
So the question is why Saakashvili started his assault which has triggered all the other events. There could be those reasons:
1) He and the Georgian army was just too bugged by the Ossetian provocations. The situation just went out of hand.
2) He actually thought that with blitzkrieg he could conquer the territory and cut off the road to Russia. Hence the timing.
3) He sees political benefit in fighting for South Ossetia, even though he knows he can't win.
4) He really believes he can drag the West into this war.
I'd say that all of those factors are somewhat true. And I'm also ready to believe that this was all a carefully prepared trap for Saakashvili, but the fact is, he walked into this trap on his own. So if you want to understand the timing of this event, you have to consider Saakashvili's thought process, not Putin's -- Russia in this conflict was reactive, not active.
The fact the he thought it a good idea to use Olympiad's opening day for a cover for his blitzkrieg says something about Saakashvili's character, but then, anyone who paid attention must have noticed that he's no better a friend of Freedom and Democracy than Putin.
By Terry, at
Sat Aug 09, 11:22:00 AM:
In the last two weeks, many Internet ammunition supply outlets selling Russian Wolf Ammunition have been out of stock and no back orders. Coincidence?
By Charlie, at
Sat Aug 09, 01:40:00 PM:
Maybe Putin was "pale and shaken with surprise" because Russian troops aren't doing too well on the ground.
By Kat, at
Sat Aug 09, 01:44:00 PM:
According to the linked article, Russia attacked Georgia's facilities for exporting oil. Of course, Russia is a huge oil exporter and would benefit if oil returned to its prices of only a month ago. Amazingly, the price of oil did not spike even after news of the invasion. That suggests that the dynamics of that market have turned decisively, er, bearish.
Or, it suggests that it was Friday and the markets didn't have time to re-act. I'm looking for Monday's numbers before we committ to any "it doesn't matter in the scheme of the price of oil" ideas.
By Kat, at
Sat Aug 09, 01:51:00 PM:
Nickolay...you work for the KGB/FSB counter information network or something?
Here's the point:
1) it's Georgian sovereign territory
2) it's between Georgia and the Ossetians
3) when the shelling started, Russian citizens should have left town if they were afraid
4) If they don't and they end up casualties of a war that is nobody else's business, that's their problem, not a problem of the state.
5) at most, the state should be getting their citizens out, not sending troops into fight for one side or another
6) I have never seen a more clumsy, heavy handed Russian excuse to send troops into a sovereign nation in my life.
There are very likely NOT 1000 dead Russians in that city. Good propaganda, though. Makes all the good Russian citizens feel like there is a "just cause" to invade another country.
Probably, my favorite fact out of this entire episode is that all these Russian folks were insisting that the United States had no reason to invade Iraq on such a flimsy excuse, blah, blah, blah.
Any excuse is good enough for preserving national interests, isn't it Nickolay?
By Peter, at
Sat Aug 09, 04:33:00 PM:
Its hard to fathom why Saakashvili has so overplayed his hand in South Ossetia, for the best part of 16 years South Ossetia has been basically autonomous. The Georgian offensive was always going to provoke a Russian response which wont stop until Russia has destroyed the pipeline facilities in the Caspian Sea and all Georgian military and aircraft bases. It seems a very high price to pay when your forces are going to be driven out of South Ossetia and weakened. NATO membership do me a favour, so what was it all for. Saakashvili has been taking consel from elements within the bush administration for too long and sacraficed Georgias best interests. A man too close and ready to agree with his CIA advisors, this war is a huge miscalculation.
Three words come to me as i look at the mess thats been created Ceyhan, Ashkelon and Eilat. I see the Israelis are helping on the ground as well. Saakashvili Georgia should come first you've allowed yourself to be used and your country thrown into conflict you're a disgrace.
By , at
Sat Aug 09, 05:19:00 PM:
Re oil, the market had plenty of time to react, it did not. Regardless of Monday's move that fact confirms the bear market comment. When bull news fails to rally...
6 weeks ago this action would have been worth 3-5 bucks within 30min. Crude was red Friday, barely holding 115.
By Papa Ray, at
Sat Aug 09, 07:35:00 PM:
""all pale and shaken with surprise"
I call BS on the above second hand hearsay.
I have been following and reading about Putin since before he came on the field.
It is totally out of character for him to be shaken or upset in any way. He didn't rise to the position of the head of the KGB because he was weak or easily "shaken". Nor the position he has held since then.
Putin has been planning this for years. His orders were to go in at the first chance something could be blamed on Georgia, since all of his previous attempts to draw Georgia into conflict had failed.
Yes, the Bear has had his nap and has awoke...
and he is hungry
Papa Ray
By Caleb Bradshaw, at
Sat Aug 09, 09:49:00 PM:
Nickolay...you work for the KGB/FSB counter information network or something?
Ha, very classy. For the record, I live in Russia (hence my somewhat sloppy English) and hate Putin's regime. I'm not trying to push any propaganda, and what I say is basically not different from what a lot of sensible blogs write:
http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/2008/08/russia_invades_south_ossetia/
http://duckofminerva.blogspot.com/
http://pomoco.typepad.com/postmodern_conservative/2008/08/get-your-war-on.html
http://fistfulofeuros.net/
By , at
Sat Aug 09, 11:55:00 PM:
There is some speculation on why there were so many Russian units in North Ossetia when the conflict started on Thursday. That the impression is that this was all planned in advance by Russia.
North Ossetia is right beside Chechnya. There have been many Russian units in both provinces (since the nineties) when war first broke out. Security has been the biggest concern in the region, especially after the massacre at Beslan when hundreds of school children were murdered. For everyone's info, Beslan is in North Ossetia just 50 miles from the Georgia and South Ossetia borders.
By , at
Sun Aug 10, 12:29:00 PM:
All world does not know the truth. Please rescue our children. We die for famine in cellars. Go here and learn(find out) the truth about that as the Georgians scoff at us! RESCUE US!!! http: // southosetia.wordpress.com
By , at
Sun Aug 10, 01:32:00 PM:
The McCain campaign is making a mistake if it thinks that all conservative Americans are anti-Russia at a time when Russians are fervently anti-communist and doing better economically than the US in terms of growth.
But, then again, his meaningless remarks on kicking Russia out of the G8 (against the wishes of the other members) already showed real conservatives that he is unacceptable.
What is happening now is the result of the stupidity of Bush's recognizing Kosovo's independence. Now, everyone has a reason and a precedent to liberate a breakaway republic.
To know more about Georgia and the current war, it is best to pay $40 to stratfor.com.
There you can read about US trained Georgians possibly being surrounded in South Ossetia by Russians who want to execute them instead of taking them prisoner.
It doesn't sound very conservative to me that Bush "trained" some innocent young men to be "neocons on the front lines" only to learn what reality is when you attack a superpower's interests.
And what about the reports that some of the dead in South Ossetia are Americans? You do NOT want the Russians finding dead American mercenaries now if you have a conservative agenda of being allied with a conservative Russia over the next century.
The latter should be the conservative agenda in the US.
By Dawnfire82, at
Sun Aug 10, 01:43:00 PM:
It's not like the trouble in Ossetia just materialized. Both sides have had plenty of time to mobilize and move around troops and make contingency plans.
FYI: Israel can mobilize its entire armed forces over a weekend. The US 82nd Airborne can (theoretically) be deployed anywhere in the world in between 24 and 48 hours. Not to compare either nation to the US or Israelis, necessarily, but to demonstrate what can be done with forethought and effort.
By , at
Sun Aug 10, 02:14:00 PM:
People of the world. You have been deceived! The World Mass Media is leading the propagation of erroneous information. BUT Russia DID NOT ATTACK Georgia! At 22:00 07.08.2008 Georgia attacked South Ossetia. At 3:30 08.08.2008 the tanks of the Georgian armies entered the city of Tskhinvali.The gunnery was continued all day long, the struggles were led with the tanks and with the heavy military equipment, and it all was used against both the Ossetian armies, and against those peaceful people who lived there. 1400 civil people have already been lost. The Russian peacemakers arrived in South Ossetia in the evening 08.08.2008 for a peaceful settlement of the conflict and for getting things put in order in the Republic and for the protection of Russian people who live on the territory of South Ossetia. Georgia attacked South Ossetia on the eve of Olympiad,and it was the top of cruelty and too cynical. The proofs and the video-materials see here : http://www.1tvrus.com/ , http://www.1tv.ru/owa/win/ort6_main.main , http://www.rian.ru/ , http://www.vesti.ru/news , http://news.ntv.ru/ , http://www.ren-tv.com/ , http://www.newsru.com/ .We must say «NO»to the WAR!!!
By Laplandia, at
Sun Aug 10, 02:17:00 PM:
>kat
The situation in Kosovo was the same.
1) it was Yugoslavian sovereign territory
2) it's between Yugoslavia and the Albanians
3) when the shelling started, Albanians should have left country if they were afraid
4) If they don't and they end up casualties of a war that is nobody else's business, that's their problem, not a problem of the state.
5) at most, the US should've been getting their citizens out, not sending troops into fight for one side or another
6) I have never seen a more clumsy, heavy handed US excuse to send troops into a sovereign nation in my life.
By , at
Sun Aug 10, 02:40:00 PM:
It’s like armageddon's here. I’ve never seen such blackhearted people…but is it possible to call them “people”. My name is Inga, today I saw the scene, that chased on my memory forever. A georgian soldier beheaded defenseless man…before this soldier cut off his moustache and compel him to eat it…
He does not have a right to be called a person…my poor osetian people, my poor lands…
Here you know thrue http://southosetia.wordpress.com
By , at
Sun Aug 10, 04:00:00 PM:
People of the world. You deceive! World mass media conduct propagation of a false information. Russia DID NOT ATTACK Georgia! 07.08.2008 at 22:00 Georgia has attacked South Ossetia. At 3:30 08.08.2008 tanks of the Georgian armies have entered into city Tskhinvali.
Artillery bombardment all the day long proceeded, fights with use of tanks and heavy combat material, both against ossetic armies, and against peace inhabitants were conducted. 2000 civil people already were lost.
The Russian peacemakers have arrived to South Ossetia in the evening 08.08.2008 for settlement of the conflict and prompting of the world in republic and protection of the Russian citizens living on territory of South Ossetia. Georgia has attacked South Ossetia on eve of Olympiad, it is top of cruelty and cynicism.
Proofs and video-materials look on : www.1tvrus.com/ , www.1tv.ru/owa/win/ort6_main.main , www.rian.ru/ , www.vesti.ru/news , news.ntv.ru/ , www.ren-tv.com/ , www.newsru.com/ .We shall tell is not present to WAR!!!
