Sunday, June 29, 2008
Is it possible to split Syria from Iran?
Conservative hawks -- ours and theirs -- have long dismissed the idea it will be possible to split Syria from Iran without a change in the regime in at least one of those countries. Stratfor wonders otherwise:
Unnamed French officials leaked in Asharq Al-Awsat daily newspaper on June 26 that Syria is prepared to “reconsider” its relations with Iran — a core demand that Israel has placed before Syria in their ongoing peace negotiations. The report stated that Damascus and Tehran do not see eye to eye on a number of regional issues, with the secular Syrian regime more interested in circumscribing Hezbollah’s power in Lebanon and preventing Iraq from becoming an Iranian-dominated religious state.
It has now been a full day since that report was leaked without a peep from Syria to deny the French claim, indicating that the peace talks taking place between Israel and Syria are actually getting somewhere.
The French, in particular, are more than ready to make sure these talks culminate in a Camp David-style agreement as France prepares to take the EU presidency July 1. With a mission to bring Paris back into the geopolitical limelight by integrating itself abroad in regions where French legacy already runs deep, French President Nicolas Sarkozy is eyeing the Levant for a major foreign policy success and has wasted no time in latching onto the Israeli-Syrian negotiating process. Arrangements are already being made for face-to-face meetings between Syrian President Bashar al Assad and Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert when the two travel to Paris on July 13 for a Mediterranean Union summit.
The French are also busy reassuring the Syrians that Israeli domestic politics are not going to get in the way of the peace talks. While skeptics of the negotiations have focused on the point that Olmert is negotiating from a position of weakness given a bribery scandal that threatens to topple him from power, French diplomatic circles are pumping the Syrian state-controlled press with reports claiming that the main political players in Israel, including far-right Likud leader Benjamin Netanyahu, are also in favor of keeping the peace talks alive.
Syria appears to be feeling confident enough about the Israeli political situation to keep on trucking with the negotiations. Though Olmert is still in a precarious political position, the negotiations with Syria do not depend solely on him being in power. In fact, Labor leader Ehud Barak, as well as several high figures in Israeli political and military circles, sanctioned the negotiations when the channel between Israel and Syria opened in the fall of 2006. And with Barak’s recent decision to stave off party primaries and keep the ruling Kadima coalition intact, Syria can find comfort in knowing there is enough degree of continuity in the Israeli political spectrum to keep the talks going.
But while the diplomatic chatter continues, real progress in a Syrian-Israeli political deal will primarily be seen on the ground in Lebanon. An Israeli-Syrian rapprochement will have to involve Syria’s cooperating in trimming Hezbollah to size. As Stratfor has written before, a great deal of distrust has been brewing between Syria and Hezbollah ever since the February assassination of Hezbollah chief commander Imad Mughniyah in Damascus, and Syria has given a number of indications that there will be no love lost between itself and the Shiite militant group should Israel move on a deal.
When Syria feels it has received the proper assurances to move on the deal, it will likely employ its Islamist militant proxies in Lebanon to move against Hezbollah (not to mention Syria’s own security forces if and when the circumstances call for it). A number of Syrian and Saudi-backed Islamist militant groups — operating under a variety of shadowy names that are designed to sow confusion — have been popping up recently in Lebanon’s Palestinian refugee camps. Hezbollah, anticipating a Sunni militant campaign against the Shiite group, has been put on guard and is already digging its heels in for a bloody fight.
Commentary
Syria and Israel have a lot to trade each other. Syria wants the Golan back, guarantees against Israeli attacks on its assets, and free reign in Lebanon. Israel wants Syria to stop acting as a conduit for Iranian subversion and support for Hezbollah, guarantees that Syria will not attack Israel either directly or by proxy (the latter being much more probable than the former), and a counterbalance to Hezbollah in Lebanon. If Syria and Israel do reach a verifiable deal, therefore, a number of players will be out of the game: Iran, Hezbollah, and those Lebanese who aspire for their land to be free from foreign domination.
Peace, especially in the Middle East, means different things for different people, and it certainly can be a very bitter pill for those on the outside looking in.
7 Comments:
By 
, at
Sun Jun 29, 12:20:00 PM:
Cost, benefit. Syria has benefited in the last 40 years in playing the terrorism game, because there has been minimal cost and much benefit for doing so. It has received $$ from Iran. There has been minimal cost: no bombing of Mukhabraat buildings, for example.
The Alawites need and use terror on the domestic from to maintain their minority rule. Hama rules?
Assad Junior will NOT decouple from Iran.
By 
Automatic_Wing , at
Sun Jun 29, 04:51:00 PM:
This comment has been removed by the author.
By , at
Sun Jun 29, 04:56:00 PM:
Having the two in lockstep definitely has costs to the US, Israel, etc. Rather than suffering these harms, could economic carrots of lesser value be useful?
By Automatic_Wing , at
Sun Jun 29, 04:57:00 PM:
Good lord, one hopes Olmert is not that stupid.
Even if Syria's "Islamist militant proxies" were successful in defeating Hezbollah, would their ascendency in Lebanon not be equally troubling for Israel? It would be pure folly to give back the Golan in exchange for Syrian promises.
By Roy Lofquist, at
Sun Jun 29, 05:11:00 PM:
I have been skeptical about the possibility of any kind of negotiated settlements in that region for about 40 years. Having said that, I note that Israel buzzed Assad's palace during the Hizbollah war, then took out the NoKo reactor with impunity.
Assad now probably believes that if the Israeli/Iran situation gets hot he may be the first to go. I think he's right. Nothing like The Sword of Damocles to keep you awake at night.
By , at
Mon Jun 30, 05:02:00 PM:
...and those Lebanese who aspire for their land to be free from foreign domination.
Aye, there's the rub.
By Dawnfire82, at
Tue Jul 01, 06:08:00 PM:
I wonder... why the hell do people still believe the Syrians?
