Wednesday, February 13, 2008
Instantaneously wrong
Clinton advisor Robert Reich in today's NYT:
WE’RE sliding into recession, or worse, and Washington is turning to the normal remedies for economic downturns. But the normal remedies are not likely to work this time, because this isn’t a normal downturn.
The problem lies deeper. It is the culmination of three decades during which American consumers have spent beyond their means. That era is now coming to an end. Consumers have run out of ways to keep the spending binge going.
Moments later, we learned:
Retail sales unexpectedly climbed in January, given a boost by demand for cars and gasoline in a positive sign for the economy.
Retail sales increased by 0.3%, the Commerce Department said Wednesday. Sales went down an unrevised 0.4% in December.
Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires estimated a 0.4% decline in January retail sales.
The sales report is a key indicator of U.S. consumer spending. Consumer spending makes up about 70% of gross domestic product, the broad measure of economic activity in the U.S. GDP grew a sluggish 0.6% in the fourth quarter, after racing along at a 4.9% pace during the third quarter.
Talk about bad timing.
That said, Reich's article is interesting, and I agree with a lot of it.
9 Comments:
By 
Cardinalpark, at
Wed Feb 13, 09:36:00 AM:
Reich's article, as most of his opinions, are politics disguised as economics. The very simple fact is that our economy is mostly driven by consumption. It's actually a tautology, and equation. It will always be thus. And if it isn't, we're screwed. Out of the other side of his mouth, he will say we are being hosed by the Chinese or the Japanese because they don't consume enough, and therefore they dump cheap exports on us and don't import enough from us.
It's all nonsense. Economies are driven by production and consumption, mostly. If you don't have consumers, you don't have producers, and therefore jobs. You also need capital, savings and investment.
His silliness is all about whining about what he perceives to be "overconsumption", driven by sonsumer credit, blah blah blah.
So let me ask, do you want the government telling you what you can and can't consume? Huh? I don't think so.
I just can't stand candy ass wonks like Reich and Krugman.
By 
, at
Wed Feb 13, 09:50:00 AM:
"That era is now coming to an end. Consumers have run out of ways to keep the spending binge going."
Not according to the Reason.tv clip I put on my site yesterday. I haven't chased them down yet, but apparently Reason.tv has a whole series of what I guess could be called the war against the war against the middle class. I never followed Drew Carey's comedy career much, but, as a commentator, he's excellent.
By Georg Felis, at
Wed Feb 13, 09:55:00 AM:
When reading a Reich column, I always try to remember that one can be "Interesting", sound reasonable, and be sooooo wrong at the same time.
By Charlottesvillain, at
Wed Feb 13, 10:29:00 AM:
I take the same approach when reading Dick Morris. I LOVE his columns and read them regularly, all the time knowing that he is possibly the least accurate political forecaster with a regular gig. He is always wrong.
By TigerHawk, at
Wed Feb 13, 10:51:00 AM:
To be clear, and I was not in the post, I think Reich is directionally correct about one big point: We very much need to improve the competence and productivity of the "bottom half" in this country. Our top people are peerless, but we have a long way to go before our average worker is as good as his counterpart in many other countries. We need to fix that. I just do not agree that stronger unions are the answer.
By , at
Wed Feb 13, 11:10:00 AM:
This has nothing to do with anything, except for those things that are the most important in life.
SI has released its annual Swimsuit issue, and holy crap, humminahumminahummina.....
By , at
Wed Feb 13, 01:46:00 PM:
"We also need stronger unions, especially in the local service sector that’s sheltered from global competition. "....In that the level of, dare I say, incompetence in all levels of bureacracy and the entrenchment of life long leeches, err....employees ; and the absolute byzantine process necessary to remove the slackers from the taxpayer financed payroll, unions are not needed. In light of ongoing attempts to remove the secret ballot in union certification elections shows the need to scrutinize, closely, not enhance union dominance and thuggery. Mr Reich's article reeks of the usual "more taxes and income redistribution" of nearly every democrat. Thank you, but no, instead ,how about they stop raping and pillaging my paycheck to give it to the won'ts. The ,won't get an education, won't get a job , won't take responsibilty for themselves and their actions. I'm damn tired of supporting the won'ts....damn tired.
By , at
Wed Feb 13, 02:09:00 PM:
"I take the same approach when reading Dick Morris. I LOVE his columns and read them regularly, all the time knowing that he is possibly the least accurate political forecaster with a regular gig. He is always wrong." - Villy
Ya know, I was wondering if anyone else had noticed that. Like you, I honestly like the guy, both his writing and on TV, but I was thinking after he butchered the 2006 Congressional race that someone really ought to start putting together a track record on him. But not to disparage him; just something for the record. Back when I watched TV, he was probably my favorite regular guest on O'Reilly, with Gingrich coming in a close second.
Speaking of O'Reilly, may I publicly state how disappointed we are with TigerHawk? As I'm sure many do, the only time I ever think of the O'Quiz is when TH mentions it, but -- and it pains me to be so truthful -- we have to face the ugly truth:
TH is a slacker in this regard.
Therefore, as a self-avowed computer god, I shall take the time and trouble to show TH how to use Windows to remind him to take the O'Quiz every week, and thus remind us in turn, thus further deifying him in our eyes.
1. Open Control Panel, 'User Accounts'. Click on your user name. If it says something like "Create a password", then create one. If it says "Change password", then that means you already have one. Make sure you know what it is.
2. Open Notepad and scribble down "O'Quiz". Save it somewhere safe, call it something like "remind1.txt", since you might eventually want two or three of them, like for doctor or dental appointments, upcoming TV show, etc.
3. Back to Control Panel, 'Scheduled Tasks'. Dbl-click "Add Scheduled Task', 'Next'. Click on the 'Browse' button and browse to the Notepad file. Check 'Weekly' on the next panel, 'Next', then fill out the parameters. On the last panel, enter your password.
If you first want to test everything, select 'Once' and set it to 10 minutes down the road. If everything's working okay, open 'Scheduled Tasks', dbl-click on the "remind1" icon, then the 'Schedule' tab and change the parameters to 'Weekly'.
Now, if you didn't have a password before, Windows is going to start asking you for it during bootup. To get around that, go to this page and download TweakUI. It's an "extra Windows tweaks" program put out privately by the MSoft programmers. Skip a little past halfway down the page and follow the TweakUI suggestions.
At the end is a "Logon" area where you can enter your user name & password and TweakUI will automagically log you on during boot-up.
We're counting on you, big fella. The O'Reilly quizzes are important to us. It's the only time of the week that we have demonstrative proof that we're smarter than the average bum.
Everything else is just wild conjecture. :)
By Papa Ray, at
Wed Feb 13, 10:28:00 PM:
I only agree with one thing in his article. Americans do have too much debt.
But Unions and some of his other spendy ways of fixing it is nonsense.
Fixing the American Education System is what needs to be done. Fixing poor parenting and kids that despite themselves can be taught a good trade.
I could go on about that aspect for hours, and have, but not now and not here.
One last thing. If we can not instill good values in our children, other values will be absorbed by them.
None of which will help them or this Republic continue as a great Nation.
Papa Ray
P.S. Americans will continue to play credit card shuffle, and other games with their money because most have no choice...they think.
Actually the only good choice is just to stop buying anything but what you have to have to get by, nothing more.
Papa Ray
