Monday, January 14, 2008
Words are cheap (but getting more expensive all the time)
I don't think you know what that word means...
Just how cemented “vigilant” is in ECB policy communications was highlighted in a paper presented during the weekend meetings of the American Economic Association here in New Orleans.
David-Jan Jansen, an economist at the Dutch central bank, estimated in a paper co-written with Jakob De Haan of the University of Groningen that ECB officials used some variation of “vigilant” or “vigilance” around 200 times between June 2003 and December 2005, a time when policy itself was largely stable, at least until late 2005. They even found that qualifiers such as “strong,” “continued” and “extremely” were often added.
That gave them a clean data series to compare the difference between words and deeds.
The result? While there appeared to be some effect in lowering inflation breakeven rates between 2003 and 2005, those instances were concentrated in late 2005, when the ECB started raising rates after the lengthy pause.
Thus, use of code words like “vigilant” doesn’t seem to affect inflation expectations in the euro zone very much unless backed by actual rate hikes.
1 Comments:
By 
, at
Mon Jan 14, 09:24:00 PM:
Mindy -
First off, if you're going to keep "Mindles H. Dreck", then we're going to have to work on another nickname. I mean, I only used "Mindy" to be mean and drive you to changing your handle, figuring you'd thank me for it later.
Then it turns out you LIKE it.
What's that say, everybody?
Anyways, I was thinking of "Ol' Lushface". What do you think?
"Look, it's Ol' Lushface!"
"(hic!) Hi! (burp!) My name's Mindlesh Dreck! (hic!)"
Kind of gives you that rough, man-of-the-people feel about you, doesn't it? I mean, as compared to "Mindy".
Or, maybe you're just stuck when it comes to scratching up a hip new handle. Okay, let's give it a whirl.
Razorman - sharp, incisive?
Eagle's Eye - Penetrating?
The Economan - Corny, but has it been used?
InnerEye - Insightful?
Inner i - Play on the above but with added physchological bonus
Xuan Xi - Just to throw everybody a curve ball
Spiral Endeavor - Tickle the psyche
Sherry Anne Chapman - So obnoxious people like me will be forced by society's dictums to be nice to you, as curdling a thought as that may be.
Personally, I'd opt for that last one. Kind of a "getting away while the getting is good" kind of thing. Hell, we've got the collective attention span of a gnat. Just take a few days off, we'll forget the whole sordid event ever took place, and then come back as Sherry Anne. Say hello to everybody and tell them a friend of yours just took this snapshot of you, then breathlessly apologize that you don't look very good because you're kind of windblown because you'd just been on a horseback ride and-
Anyway, there's a couple of ideas for handles. Work backwards. Think of what one word encapsulates the vision you wish to blog with. Insightful? Incisive? Penetrating? The objective? Beyond the objective? Diving into the nuance?
Nuance.
SideView
Paralleloman
A Feigned Indifference
Sidebar Man
Second Sight
BTW, if you're wondering if this is just about the most off-topic comment in TigerHawk history, I'd say we've pretty much got the place to ourselves. Which brings me to the actual thing I jumped in to say.
While you've been given a marvelous platform from which to blog, you've also jumped in at the deadest time of the year. Comments across the board are way down. I suppose part of it is the usual January malaise, and there's probably a bit of post-primary relaxing, now that the ball is finally rolling. I just thought I'd mention it, since your posts haven't been getting many comments.
And, of course, content plays a part. For the most part, we're borderline political junkies here, not a bunch of scrawny, pencilneck, pansy-ass economists. No offense, of course. Just pointing out that politics and economics don't really mix very well. If you want to cater to the crowd, pick some mutual ground, like comparing the various GOP candiates' economic platforms -- assuming they have any. :/
Also, just saying "I don't think you know what that word means..." and then quoting a bunch of someone else's writings isn't blogging. This isn't Instapundit. Okay, you don't think they know what it means -- what do YOU think it means?
If you're a blogger, then you're commenting. If you're commenting, then you're making a point. If you're making a point, then you sum it up.
On this subject, TH acts as Exhibit A. Read over hundreds of his posts and notice (1) how seldom he leaves us dangling with a question, and (2) when he does, note how he's already given us two plausible answers and isn't just asking us, but challenging us to come up with a third. And, nine times out of ten, we have to admit we're stumped. I'm not sure if it's taught or a natural, but it's a great literary trick.
On the other hand, you guys didn't put a picture of the new busty Paris Hilton on your site today, complete with glowing tribute, as I did.
Ha-ha.
I win. :)
