Saturday, January 19, 2008
Pachyderm power
Watching McCain's victory speech, I agree with my co-blogger CardinalPark -- the Republicans have a pretty good field. So far, I could support all of McCain, Romney, Giuliani, and Thompson in the general election. I would have a hard time forcing myself to the polls if Mike Huckabee were the Republican candidate (given our likely choices on the other side), but if he cannot win in South Carolina, where can he win?
Among the big four, my preferences depend on my mood. I enjoy listening to Fred Thompson more than the others. But is he all hat, no cattle? Rudy Giuliani is the most articulate on the issue that concerns me the most, the war against the Islamist jihad, and because I am not a social conservative I agree with him on the full range of issues more than any of the others. But does he surround himself with weak and venal people? John McCain might well represent the most formidable opponent for either Democrat in the fall; "Keating Five" business aside, McCain is by virtue of his heroism in Vietnam the unimpeachable foil for the entire American left. But will Hillary needle him into going batshit in the middle of a critical debate? Mitt Romney is, I think, the least likely of the four to screw up massively as president, even if he is also the least likely to be a great president. But will more people vote against a Mormon than would vote against a woman or an African-American?
In any case, a race between Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama on the left and any of the four non-HuckaPauls on the right will offer better potential presidents, all in, than were nominated in 2000 and 2004. Or, at least, that's how it appears so far.
6 Comments:
By 
Country Squire, at
Sun Jan 20, 08:45:00 AM:
TH,
I am a Fred Thompson fan and am confused by your “all hat, no cattle” comment. From my vantage point Fred is easily the most conservative candidate in the field and has provided position papers on every major issue. That would seem to give him more “cattle” than the other candidates. And if the big “hat” fits – might as well wear it.
All the Republicans are “right” on the war. What worries me about the other candidates is what they’re going to do when they’re not fighting terrorists.
By TigerHawk, at
Sun Jan 20, 08:51:00 AM:
Country - I agree with both your points. Friendly reminder that I am not as conservative as many of my readers -- I just tend to care more about the issues on which I am a conservative (for example, I am in favor of lawful abortion and lawful gay marriage, but do not care about them much). Now, Fred has run a substantive campaign on the issues, and I did not mean to imply that. The question is whether he knows how to do anything. Perhaps I am unfair, but I am more comfortable with the executive abilities of both Giuliani and Romney than Fred, and I think McCain he much deeper roots in Washington (which is simultaneously a bug and feature, but it does mean that he can probably get some of his top priorities through). So my concern about Fred is not his intellectual or policy substance, but his management skills. I am prepared to be proven wrong.
By Country Squire, at
Sun Jan 20, 10:25:00 AM:
TH,
As a long time reader I am aware of your interesting spectrum of socio-political beliefs; it’s one of the many reasons that I read you every day. While I am a bit to your right I also have a social libertarian streak which manifests itself by being in favor of giving people more freedom than they can probably handle. With all that said I now understand your comment about Fred much better. I would settle for a demonstration of his “executive abilities” by gaining some much needed traction in the primaries – though, after yesterday, I am concerned it may never happen.
Since the Republicans are in general agreement about the long war I guess my task if/when Fred drops out is to decide which of the remaining candidates is least likely to infringe on my Second Amendment rights, allow continued illegal immigration and/or raise my taxes. I am suffering from post-South Carolina primary blues this morning and its beginning to dawn on me that I may be a casualty of this extended primary season. If Fred leaves the race it’s going to end up being “lesser evils” time – already.
By 
, at
Sun Jan 20, 12:49:00 PM:
I agree that Thompson, Romney, Giuliani, or McCain would be acceptable. I favor Romney because I think he has the best management experience in hiring the team that does the actual work. Yes, Romney will SAY anything to get elected, but he seems to be more careful about what he actually does.
I really like Rudy Giuliani, but I question if he'll be willing to delegate responsibility to strong cabinet leaders. I also worry about the fact that he doesn't own a car. Will the New Yorker throw real freedom loving pickup truck driving Americans under the bus?
John McCain would cost me time if he became President. I'll have to make many angry phone calls to my congressman to try to block bad immigration and climate change legislation. I'd rather have a President I could count on to veto such nonsense.
Fred Thompson would make a good Vice President.
By , at
Sun Jan 20, 02:25:00 PM:
I like Obama because he's a fellow Columbia alumnus (Go Lions!) and post-Baby Boom generation. Since Obama is a Wilsonian liberal, I also don't believe he would do anything irresponsible and illiberal regarding Iraq, a la John Edwards. His lack of decades of experience in federal government don't hurt him as much because so much is changing in the world and challenging our role in it, we don't need someone to manage the status quo. We need someone to manage change.
I like Giuliani because he was a great mayor of NYC, best of my lifetime (which includes Koch, Dinkins, Bloomberg), and a terrific US Attorney in NYC before that.
By , at
Mon Jan 21, 09:21:00 AM:
The Politico has an interesting article this morning, speculating that Hucklebuck knows he's done but wants to stay in the race through Florida so as to weaken Romney (whom he dislikes, probably because he's a rich, opportunist apostate...or something).
Anyway, Florida is the first state where Giuliani has a chance to make an impact on the race. That should be interesting to watch, because he and McCain are similar on so many views and that nearness on many issues, but not exactness, may well turn a previously collegial relationship between the two of them quickly combustable. While on the big issue of anti-jihadism the two are rock solid in their agreement, for example, they do differ substantially on taxes, where even though Jack Kemp has endorsed McCain it's still hard to believe the candidate from the Senate gets it and the Mayor obviously does.
Even though the focus will quickly shift to Super Tuesday after Florida, I believe the Florida primary will tell the eventual tale. Later, when we look back at this fascinating nomination process, it'll be Florida where we look to understand who closed the deal and how.
Andrew
