Thursday, December 27, 2007
Let's not have any illusions about Pakistan
Ponder this:
Whether we get round to admitting it or not, in Pakistan, our quarrel is with the people. Their struggle, literally, is jihad. For them, freedom would mean institutionalizing the tyranny of Islamic fundamentalism. They are the same people who, only a few weeks ago, tried to kill Benazir Bhutto on what was to be her triumphant return to prominence — the symbol, however dubious, of democracy’s promise. They are the same people who managed to kill her today. Today, no surfeit of Western media depicting angry lawyers railing about Musharraf — as if he were the problem — can camouflage that fact.
In Pakistan, it is the regime that propounds Western values, such as last year’s reform of oppressive, Sharia-based Hudood laws, which made rape virtually impossible to prosecute — a reform enacted despite furious fundamentalist rioting that was, shall we say, less well covered in the Western press. The regime, unreliable and at times infuriating, is our only friend. It is the only segment of Pakistani society capable of confronting militant Islam — though its vigor for doing so is too often sapped by its own share of jihadist sympathizers.
Read the whole thing, and come back here to comment.
MORE: If you think there is even only a chance that Andy McCarthy is right, Bill Richardson's proposal that the United States somehow "force" Musharraf from power seems transportingly dumb.
10 Comments:
By 
D.E. Cloutier, at
Thu Dec 27, 04:04:00 PM:
By Fellow American, at
Thu Dec 27, 04:08:00 PM:
My common-sense-o-meter says Andy McCarthy is dead on. Pakistan is basically Gaza, with nukes.
By 
, at
Thu Dec 27, 04:42:00 PM:
I agree with Nate totally. Scary.
By Jamie Irons, at
Thu Dec 27, 07:33:00 PM:
I go back and forth about whether Pakistan is hopeless, one reason being my friendship with some superb and brilliant Pakistani physicians with whom I work, who are as moderate and reasonable as one could imagine.
But, of course, they are here in the US, and they don't talk about returning home.
Jamie Irons
By , at
Thu Dec 27, 08:11:00 PM:
My only knowledge of the country and it's people is second hand, from a relative who lived and worked there for many years, or from books. My paltry knowledge notwithstanding, I think McCarthy generalizes about the people and their motivations way too broadly.
Also, he relies on a poll from CNN to frame his point, and I can't imagine using a CNN poll for anything other than fishwrap under ordinary citcumstances. The events in Karachi might just be of much greater import to Pakistan, I'm guessing, than those in Rawalpindi or the Northwest Tribal Territories, and certainly the populations in those places would have dramatically different views of al Qaeda, America, Jihad and Musharraf. McCarthy doesn't recognize those differences of view, and that makes me suspicious of his whole argument.
Clearly though, civilization is in a battle to the death with the middle ages, with liberal western values being civilization in this case and al Qaeda representing the middle ages. We'll win, eventually, but those nukes will probably get used along the way.
By , at
Thu Dec 27, 11:06:00 PM:
there's not quite 1.0 chance of those nukes being used on pakistani cities.
By War News Updates Editor, at
Fri Dec 28, 02:05:00 AM:
If history is any judge, I do not think we have yet contemplated on what the worse case scenario can be with a possible militant Islamic government in Pakistan that has nukes and a jihad foreign policy.
Fortunately, we are still at the "what if phase" in our discussion. But again, if history is any indication, the worse case scenario sometimes does evolve very quickly to the actual scenario.
We in the West have forgotten how incredibly vicious our religious wars were in Europe hundreds of years ago. The sad fact is that in the Indian sub-continent this brew of hate and religious intolerance still exists and occupies a significant portion of the population. It may not be the 46% that is mentioned, but it is a significant part of the population.
Don't forget, it was only 60 years ago that as India was gaining its independence, millions were being killed in the religious strife and physical separation of state that followed. After a number of wars, conflicts over Kashmir, and god only knows what else, that historical hatred and need for revenge is still there among many.
I cannot help but feel that there is a significant lack of appreciation among many in Pakistani on what the use of nuclear weapons can do to the sub-continent.
We in the west know the consequences .....the use or even threaten use of nuclear weapons will only result with all of us being swallowed in that whirlwind.
By , at
Fri Dec 28, 11:07:00 AM:
The poll is disturbing, but also note that the same poll also says 63% approved of Bhutto. So if the Pakistani public wanted Bhutto dead, by McCarthy's logic a lot more would want Osama dead.
What does all this say? It seems to me it says that this so-called "approval" doesn't exactly mean all Pakistanis subscribe to all the ideologies of either person. Both Osama and Bhutto are figures of protest and discontent.
It's scary as hell, because it looks like Pakistan could go either way. But on the bright side, it could go either way. So let's not panic here. Yet.
JK
By Purple Avenger, at
Fri Dec 28, 07:38:00 PM:
I do not think we have yet contemplated on what the worse case scenario can be
I'm quite sure the scenarios have been war gamed to death.
They'd get one volley off (which in the grand scheme of things really won't accomplish much), then we, and perhaps the Indians as well, render their defense and civil infrastructure inoperative to the point it would take them 30 years to rebuild to where they are today.
By , at
Sat Dec 29, 07:33:00 AM:
Y'all are wildly over-estimating the jihadist current in Pakistani politics. Under normal circumstances, they get about 3% of the vote. In the 2002 elections, they did get 11%, but that was only because Musharraf suppressed the 2 gigantic grass-roots parties (the PPP, Bhutto's peeps, and the PML-N, Nawaz Sharif's). Pakistanis are generally moderate, with a quickly growing middle-class.
And the jury is still out as to whether the assassin truly was a jihadi, as Musharraf claimed. He himself had an awful lot to gain by getting rid of her, so keep an open mind on that count.
