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Thursday, December 27, 2007

The Religion of Peace strikes again: Benazir Bhutto is assassinated 


[Continuously updating...]

A suicide bomber shot and killed Pakistan's former president and leader of the opposition, Benazir Bhutto, and then murdered 20 other people when he blew himself up. It is a great tragedy for Pakistan and, probably, a great victory for al Qaeda. Whether or not al Qaeda was behind the killing -- and what are the chances it was not -- the jihadis have moved one step closer to controlling a nuclear arsenal.

Of course, Jim Hoff has a round-up.

More in a few minutes.

MORE:

Not surprisingly, stock futures are down on the news ahead of the market open.

Pajamas Media round-up here.

MORE:

Stratfor:

Given the modus operandi, it is likely the work of jihadists linked with the Taliban and/or al Qaeda. This assassination could not have been possible without the jihadists being enabled by elements within the government because both the jihadists and many within the regime fear the possibility of Bhutto‘s party emerging strong in the Jan. 8 polls. This attack further highlights the murky links between Islamist militants and elements within the Pakistani security/intelligence establishment.

Bhutto’s death will trigger a serious backlash in the form of violence and unrest in the country, which could derail the polls, which the opposition is claiming will be rigged by the establishment. The unrest and violence following her death could also lead to the imposition of martial law.


Captain Ed (written before we knew that Bhutto herself had died):
The Islamists appear to fear Bhutto more than any other potential opposition. As of yet, no one has targeted Nawaz Sharif, possibly because he cannot run for office at the moment, even though he leads one of the political parties. They have not tried again to assassinate Pervez Musharraf either, but Musharraf has no reason to give speeches in parks. Bhutto makes the easiest target for the lunatics, and they're apparently going to keep trying to kill her until they succeed or until they run out of suicidal volunteers.

They have more motive with Bhutto than other candidates, too. Bhutto has said that she would favor allowing the US and NATO to conduct operations in Waziristan and the North West Frontier Province to clear out the Taliban and al-Qaeda. While she would have only limited ability to employ that strategy -- that seems clearly the provenance of Musharraf, who doesn't share her enthusiasm for the idea -- the radical Islamists want to take no chances. They have nowhere else to run if the US and Pakistan start cooperating to defeat them.


MORE:

Stratfor is now saying that "reports of rioting by Pakistan People’s Party workers are coming in from throughout Pakistan."

Richard Fernandez:
There were already questions about whether Bhutto -- or any other candidate -- could create a political alternative to the dilemma of rule by the Army or rule by the Taliban... Now there will not even be the illusion of an electoral outcome. The effect of political assassination is to restrict effective political discourse to argument by high explosive or supersonic lead projectiles. Pakistani politics might not miss Benazir Bhutto as an individual, but it will surely want for elections in general.

That is precisely the objective of the jihadis, of course, who believe as a matter of ideology that sovereignty comes only from Allah, not the people.

She was warned, in case it was not obvious after the October attack:
The Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) said Dec. 13 that the Pakistani Interior Ministry received information on a potential attack against party leader and former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto on Dec. 21, Geo reported. Rehman Malik, Bhutto’s security adviser, told Geo the PPP has demanded extra security for Bhutto’s campaign.


MORE:

Captain Ed, who has been following Pakistan more completely than most big American bloggers, has now posted his analysis. It is well worth reading if you are not up to speed on the various players.

Also, here is a Stratfor analytical piece from mid-November that discusses the ultimate issue, which is control over the nuclear arsenal:
Pakistani President Gen. Pervez Musharraf took another big step Monday in consolidating his hold over the government, with a Supreme Court decision to throw out the five main court petitions against his eligibility to remain president as the country’s army chief. This comes as little surprise since the general himself handpicked most of the judges who voted.

While the political opposition led by former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto is screaming that this is yet another illegal move made by an illegitimate government, that “illegitimate” government has made it clear that it is fully capable of providing “legal” solutions to its own problems. All in all, Musharraf is not in that bad a shape, despite the political melodrama in the streets of Pakistan.

The U.S. State Department will continue issuing statements urging Musharraf to restore democracy, but the issue that is really keeping U.S. policymakers awake is that of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons arsenal. The New York Times published a feature article Nov. 18 that discusses in detail how the United States has been involved in a covert program for the past six years to secure Pakistan’s nuclear weapons. The newspaper says it had been sitting on this information for three years under pressure from the U.S. administration before its decision to come public with the information. Stratfor loyalists who have read George Friedman’s America’s Secret War, however, should regard this as old news. [I read Friedman's book when it came out, and was, in fact, amazed that people considered this news when the NYT re-broke the story last month. - ed.]

As we have discussed a number of times, the United States delivered a very clear ultimatum to Musharraf in the wake of 9/11: Unless Pakistan allowed U.S. forces to take control of Pakistani nuclear facilities, the United States would be left with no choice but to destroy those facilities, possibly with India’s help. This was a fait accompli that Musharraf, for credibility reasons, had every reason to cover up and pretend never happened, and Washington was fully willing to keep things quiet. After all, the United States was not interested in regime change in Islamabad. The timing of the New York Times article, then, is interesting — we would not be surprised to find that certain opposition elements were involved in the publishing of this article in an attempt to throw another hand grenade at Musharraf.

But is Musharraf really in trouble? One look at the divided opposition and the defeated street protests suggests not. However, the real threat to the general — and potentially the security of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons — comes from the army itself. Stratfor has been keeping a close eye on the status of the military throughout this political crisis, searching for any serious signs of dissent among Musharraf’s top brass. Pakistani sources said Monday that there was a recent case of insubordination within the army in which a midlevel commander refused to open fire during an incident in Swat (where the military is heavily engaged in counterterrorism operations), saying the army is fighting its own people and the government’s policies are only making matters worse. The commander refused to obey orders from his superior even after a gun was put to his head, and is now being court-martialed. We also are hearing from ranking officers that several junior officers in the army are strongly criticizing Musharraf and that some soldiers driving in army vehicles have been seen giving victory signs to opposition protesters in the streets.

These scattered signs of dissent do not necessarily imply that the Pakistani army is disintegrating and that the country’s nuclear arsenal is vulnerable. However, if the general tide in the army turns against Musharraf, we could soon see a scenario play out in which Pakistan’s top generals force Musharraf to step down. The Pakistani general is consolidating the military’s hold on power, but there is still no guarantee that Musharraf himself will not be sacrificed in the process.


MORE:

Michelle Malkin's round-up includes at least one report that al Qaeda is claiming credit.

11 Comments:

By Anonymous Anonymous, at Thu Dec 27, 09:35:00 AM:

Indeed, a tragedy, but hardly surprising. A bomb is just another 'political tool' in that area of the world.

I'll be interested in Ed Morrissey's take on it. Of the R/W bloggers I read, he's been the one who's stayed on the Pakistan story throughout.  

By Blogger TigerHawk, at Thu Dec 27, 09:43:00 AM:

Your wish is my command, Dr. Murky.  

By Blogger Christopher Chambers, at Thu Dec 27, 10:29:00 AM:

Such is the world you right wing dumbasses created. If it came out by some alien invasion that you choreograph this with the fanatics and clowns on the other side, hey it'd be no news to me. Wake the hell up. It was the Reagan-Bush clan who helped Zia off her dad...so is it the position of the sons of Reagan-Bush that "Islamafacists" killed her to destabilize things...rather than Zia's inheritors--whom we have always courted and protected no matter what (and the Islamafacists they too often ally themselves with)? Wow. Either way, we have an uncanny knack for the same sort of ideological/wallet-related short-sightedness and back the wrong horse time and again. Then the horse turns around and kicks us and we start the whole bloody process over again.

I'm sure Fox will spin this as "heroine and democracy saint" Benazir Bhutto murdered by Muslims--likely IRAN...or MICHAEL MOORE...as if they gave a crap about Benazir Bhutto or the average NASCAR dad knew what a Bhutto was. ."the President and Secretary rice urge our great ally Musharef to 'hunt down and hang these bastards.'" If it wasn't real life, it'd be opera. And having hillary in charge would just change the libretto a few words when what we need is to sweep all of the cattawalling idiots and fanatics here and over there off the stage.

And now the Ringling Brothers clown corps that are the GOP candidates are "sounding off." Cool. I feel better already. So do the oil speculators and the foreigners buying up our country as the fallout from greed and short-sightedness on the home front continues. But lets get to Wal Mart and spend. At least you'll have that new Wii with which to escape reality as the bank takes your home, the stockholders of your bosses company yanks your health plan, and yes, of course...there's Pakistan.

Binky Bhutto (her nickname at Harvard) RIP. She and daddy are likely snicking away in heaven (yeah, they were Muslims too, Tigerhawk...just like Tim McVeigh and Adolph Hitler and Nathan Bedford Forrest and Torquemada were Christians...your dad wouldn't have liked this religion-baiting game you play as meat for the dumbasses...).  

By Anonymous Anonymous, at Thu Dec 27, 10:41:00 AM:

Thanks Christopher Chambers, nobody does deranged bile the way you do. Truly world class!

Oh yeah, McVeigh and Hitler were both "Christians" - ha! Talk about dumbass... Hitler vehemently rejected his Catholic roots, embraced a pagan tradition as part of his movement, guess you missed that. McVeigh had his own thing, and you really display all the superior delusions. Thanks, Chrissy!  

By Anonymous Anonymous, at Thu Dec 27, 11:30:00 AM:

"Such is the world you right wing dumbasses crea-"

Now, why did I get that far into the lead sentence when the word "Christopher" suddenly popped into my head?

"Truly world class!" - 'Nonny

It could be argued that Christopher is the quintessential example of a wasted mind. While his spelling could use some work, his actual writing skills are fairly decent. Good syntax, excellent vocabulary, incisive points made in a strong, unyielding manner, and obviously someone with a grasp of history. You don't throw the names Nathan Bedford Forrest and Torquemada around by accident.

Then you take a mind that really could be a driving force in the world, run it through a government education system for 12 years, feed it a bunch of liberal claptrap in college, then fling it in the direction of DailyKos and MediaMatters and what you end up with is what we see.

Christopher, if you're reading this, I have a question for you.

In other news, I bet something happened to me a few minutes ago that hasn't happened to you guys today.

I suddenly heard this odd scratching coming from the window a few feet to my right. Living on a boat, sometimes the 'fenders' made sqeaky noises as they rub against the pier, but this was different. It was a high-pitched noise, like fingernails scratching on glass.

Tiny fingernails, as it turned out.

I finally got up, went out the back, looked around to the side of the boat, and there was a green 3' iguana staring back at me.

It's not unusual to see them, but that's the first time I'd noticed one actually on the boat. As expected, he ran to the side and did a belly-flop into the water, ne'er to be seen again.

Nothing like living in the tropics.  

By Blogger Andrewdb, at Thu Dec 27, 11:39:00 AM:

News reports (sorry, no link) say Sharif was also shot at this morning.  

By Anonymous Anonymous, at Thu Dec 27, 11:40:00 AM:

Al Qaeda claimed credit for the big northeastern power outage a few years ago too.

Chambers; why do you even come here? When was the last time you actually engaged in a meaningful conversation? That thread where you childishly threatened to beat someone up?

If you're going to put one-off comments full of pseudo-facts that are loosely connected by conspiracy theories, do so at DailyKOS or Huffington Post, where they'll be appreciated.  

By Anonymous Anonymous, at Thu Dec 27, 11:47:00 AM:

centrifugal forces are tearing pakistan apart. it really looks like they will devolve into a somlia like failed state. i wonder when and where one of their nukes gets lit up.  

By Blogger Georg Felis, at Thu Dec 27, 02:04:00 PM:

1. If Musharraf does not use this occasion to clear the radical nuts out of the government (some of which will wind up breathing-optional), then we’ve underestimated him.
2. Al-Q would take credit even if a tree had fallen and hit her.
3. The Pak nuke sites right now are most probably filled with the most Musharraf loyal troops he can find, all of which are highly armed and twitchy. It would be an insanely bad idea to try to break into one of those places at the moment.
4. The same people who believe that 9/11 was a frame job are right now scribbling their little conspiracy theories on napkins and hammering at keyboards. Take a deep breath. Compare the stories coming out. Watch them for a few days. The nuts (like cc) should be fairly easy to see after a bit.
5. Grieve for a brave woman who returned to a dangerous land, not for her own glorification, but to help her country. And pray that many more will rise in her place in the name of Freedom.  

By Anonymous Anonymous, at Thu Dec 27, 03:51:00 PM:

do you really think it is easy to spot "loyal" troops over there ? if so, why haven't all the disloyal troops been discharged ? bhutto was their for her own benefit, as she proved both times she was in power.  

By Anonymous Anonymous, at Thu Dec 27, 04:02:00 PM:

No point in getting in a dither about Chris Chambers. He is just trying to provoke a reaction, and he is apparently being most successful today. To the extent that one replies to him, one is simply providing dialogue for his next novel.
(As I pointed out previously, if he were really interested in a debate/exchange of views, he would 1) reply ( he hardly ever does) and 2) take the time to craft a well-constructed argument, which as an attorney he is most capable of doing.)
On his website, he sometimes says things that even right-wing-nuts (as CC would describe us, in order to provoke a reaction, among other reasons.) can agree with.
Read him, laugh, and go on.  

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