Tuesday, September 25, 2007
The Fog of War?
Nothing in the Middle East (and maybe even other parts, like North Korea) should necessarily be viewed as happening in isolation. There is a regional conflict well underway now, and it includes 175,000 US troops in Iraq and environs, the Israeli military, Hezbollah, the Iranian Qods forces and possibly others as well. Last summer's skirmish between Hezbollah and Israel in Lebanon was very much a part of the contest for regional hegemony by a Shiite vanguard led by Iran and its proxies. It may be that Israel is acting effectively as an American and Sunni Arab proxy to weaken Syria and therefore the Iranian axis.
The pressure on Assad is immense. Does Israel have significant intelligence assets inside Syria? It must. A clandestine attack such as that launched September 6th could not have succeeded otherwise. Is Israel acting with American and Sunni Arab assistance? Again, it is hard to believe it isn't. Tacit support has become obvious. But it must also be receiving active assistance.
I don't think the current President intends on leaving office with this situation unresolved. And if you want to increase pressure on the Iranian regime, squeezing Syria (and prying it free from Iranian influence) is a very good place to start. Certainly Israel is more than capable of executing on that front.
10 Comments:
By 
Christopher Chambers, at
Tue Sep 25, 08:05:00 PM:
Woooh. The "take-down" of Syria. Sounds like something for X-Box. Or WWE (minus the 'roids and lack of health insurance)? And then what, sir, will happen next--the throngs of grateful Syrian people will flood the street as when Lawrence of Arabia arrived in Damascus...um...well things didn;t exactly turn out well in the end then, either.
Try something a bit less, well, Hollywood-sounding ;-)
PS I liked the way Lee Bollinger ambushed the Prez of the Islamic Republic. I don't think anyone's ever denied that this guy's
a douchebag. I think we can add buffoon to that, and frankly the indications are that many in his own camp carry that opinion. Which makes it remarkable why he and George Bush don't get along better. Kindred, let's say? Have a good week TH. What is the shape of Princeton Football this season? The Hawkeyes?
By Assistant Village Idiot, at
Tue Sep 25, 08:17:00 PM:
Focus, Chris. Try and maintain focus.
Does anyone know if this guy just smoked too much weed back in college? He talks like a boss I used to have who had cannabinoid wanderings.
By Purple Avenger, at
Tue Sep 25, 09:06:00 PM:
Chris never met a thuggish dictator he didn't idolize.
By K. Pablo, at
Tue Sep 25, 10:30:00 PM:
You might have something there, CP. The IDF tested Hezbollah last summer and found it to be a hardened target. In a fascinating article earlier this year in International Journal of Intelligence and Counterintelligence, Uri Bar-Joseph did a post-mortem of Israeli intelligence services in the Second Lebanon War. In previous conflicts, Israeli Military Intelligence (AMAN) had underestimated strategic threats yet shown brilliance in dealing with tactical issues. Last summer, quite the opposite obtained. Significant impediments to AMAN's handling of Hezbollah included this organization's high degree of compartmentalization, its communications security, and Syrian and Iranian counterintelligence, abetted by Russia.
Applying a little Sun-Tzu to the Iran-Syria-Hezbollah apparatus, it seems clear that the weak spot is therefore not Hezbollah, nor the Qods force, nor IRGC. It is Damascus. The signal Israel seems to be sending is that they do not feel geographically constrained to deal with local threats first. Bashar Assad has to take a look at the dynamics of attrition: he sits atop an unstable regime, a religious minority, and he is neither as ruthless nor as clever as old Hafez. He is propped up primarily by Iran, and the U.S. can degrade Iran's capabilities in a heartbeat (blockade, or a sortie of F-117's against Iran's limited refinery capacity). No Arab friends. And a bunch of pissed off Israelis puncturing his air defenses at will.
By Unknown, at
Tue Sep 25, 11:59:00 PM:
Maybe there are Sunni Arabs helping, but I suspect that there were Kurds in on this. The Iraqi Kurds have made no secret of the admiration for Israel and view it as an ally. About 10% of Syria's population are disgruntled Kurds.
By 
, at
Wed Sep 26, 08:57:00 AM:
First, let's get the riff-raff out of the way:
"Does anyone know if this guy just smoked too much weed back in college?" - Assistant Village Idiot
Given that you're the one who wrote that completely skewed, disingenuous, and utterly misinformed "Little Folksies" article a while back, I wouldn't say you have much room to talk.
"Chris never met a thuggish dictator he didn't idolize." - Purple Avenger
That may be true, but in this case he's right. Cardy's use of the word "takedown" was as over-the-top as it gets. Knocking out an air base doesn't mean a country's about ready to invade the whole damn place. And, given the weak leadership in Israel, it's doubtful they could beat Syria even if they wanted to. Hell, they were bested by a bunch of freelance lunatics just last summer. How would they fare against a real army?
Chris - You need to pay more attention to the author of the article. I've noticed a few times that you've thought TH was the author of an article written by one of his co-bloggers, including today.
___________________________________
Cardinalpark:
Well, at least this time you didn't try to convince us that the economy is on the edge of collapse, breakdown, and utter ruination.
So we've got that to be thankful for.
Or were you the co-blogger who was trying to convince us that society was on the edge of collapse, breakdown and ruination? So many fearmonging, doomsaying co-bloggers, it's hard to tell them apart.
A question:
"Does Israel have significant intelligence assets inside Syria? It must."
I didn't read the article, but I thought I saw yesterday that it was some Syrian air base they took out, nothing to do with nukes.
Given modern satellite technology, "must" Israel have assets inside of Syria just to take out an air base? If satellites can read a license plate off a car, then surely they'd be able to keep track of personnel movements, delivery schedules, etc, and blast the place to hell at the opportune moment. I'd admit, though, that ol' Assad is probably scratching his head about their air defenses being so easily penetrated.
And a comment:
"I don't think the current President intends on leaving office with this situation unresolved."
That was said 50 years ago, and will be said 50 years from today.
By Dawnfire82, at
Wed Sep 26, 06:33:00 PM:
Bitter much? As I recall, CP talked about a possible economic downturn that actually occurred like, 3 days later.
But I guess that's fear mongering, where you come from. Whatever.
"If satellites can read a license plate off a car, then surely they'd be able to keep track of personnel movements, delivery schedules, etc, and blast the place to hell at the opportune moment."
Oh, you mean personnel like, say, Osama bin Laden?
Satellites are not a panacea, as much as the NRO and company wish they were and convinced Congress that they were. Unless they are in geosynchronous orbit, they are slaves to the motions of themselves and the earth. They also cannot see through the ground, or camouflage, or even a tin roof built over the target. Additionally, they must be tasked and therefore have an inherent time delay which may restrict their practical use. And on top of *that,* they are not smart. They are not people. They are machines. They take pictures when they are told. That's all. If you don't have a starting point (I think a terrorist camp is in this valley, take a look) then they are worthless.
However, there are plenty of other ways to have found out about this target. Signals intelligence would be a good start, and depending on the nature of the target more sophisticated and specific means like tracking radiation or chemical traces. Or, most likely, a combination of multiple methods.
By Steve M. Galbraith, at
Wed Sep 26, 08:28:00 PM:
I don't think the current President intends on leaving office with this situation unresolved.
I do. There's nothing to indicate, it seems to me, that they plan on doing anything other than "kick the can" down the street and leave a resolution - if possible - of this for the next Administration.
All of the remainder of Bush's term - all of his remaining political capital (however small) - will be used on securing Iraq.
President Clinton/Giuliani (McCain?) will be given this one.
Just one more reason that you have to be nuts to want to be President.
By , at
Thu Sep 27, 12:43:00 AM:
TIME magazine once name ADOLPH HITLER as MAN OF THE YEAR back in 1938 but thats not surprising for this leftists rag
By , at
Thu Sep 27, 03:21:00 AM:
The reports vary: it was a Syrian-North Korean missile facility, with possibly nerve gas warheads, or nuclear facilities, or some other unspecified facility.
Certainly it IS very odd that Syria has said nothing, has not screamed at the UN, has not paraded pictures, and the Arab "street" has been silent. Meanwhile, North Korea is screaming, and they never comment on the ME.
Israel maintains the ability to take out Assad's regime, if it is pushed. And it won't repeat Bush-Rumsfeld's mistake, an occupation. Simple chaos suffices.
Assad is not Nasrallah. He can't maintain power while hiding in an air raid shelter.
