Wednesday, March 07, 2007
The covert war
European leftists don't want to impose economic sanctions on Iran for its violations of the the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, and leftists everywhere want the United States to declare that it will not use military force to coerce Iran or interdict the nuclear program. That leaves few other options, including shadow war ($):
Ali Reza Askari, a former aide to the Iranian defense minister and a retired general with long service in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), has been missing since Feb. 7. He reportedly was last seen in Istanbul. After his disappearance, Arab newspapers quickly fingered Mossad and the CIA for his assassination or kidnapping. Iranian officials made similar claims. On Tuesday, the independent Saudi-owned newspaper Asharq Al-Awsat offered a different explanation: Askari had defected, turning himself over to U.S. agents in Turkey.
After visiting Damascus on official business, Askari reportedly flew to Istanbul on a personal trip. Menashe Amir, an Israeli analyst of Iranian affairs, has said that Askari's family left Iran ahead of him and met up with him in Istanbul. That his disappearance appears to have happened while he was traveling abroad with his family seems a remarkable coincidence. And Istanbul is a particularly convenient location for the U.S. intelligence community: Turkey's intelligence agencies are on good terms with their American counterparts, and U.S. military flights are quite common.
While Asharq Al-Awsat has occasionally been used by Riyadh for disinformation purposes -- and both the Saudis and the Israelis (and essentially everyone else discussing his disappearance) have cause to manipulate perceptions of Iran -- the fact remains that a covert war is raging, and has been. Mossad has likely taken out Ardeshir Hassanpour, a prominent Iranian nuclear scientist. In Iraq, the United States has raided an Iranian consulate and arrested Iranian citizens, including Mohsen Shirazi, a commander of the elite IRGC Quds Brigade.
One thing is clear: Askari is missing and Tehran is at least pretending to be worried. An Iranian delegation arrived in Istanbul last week to investigate, and has reportedly contacted Interpol. Some of the details of Askari's military career have been closely guarded by the Iranian government, but indications are that he has been heavily involved in strategic affairs as well as military purchases and production. Israeli sources claim that he was the commander of the IRGC in Lebanon in the late 1980s, where he served as a liaison with Hezbollah. He could even be privy to information on Tehran's nuclear program.
Iran appears to be operating on the assumption that Askari might have been compromised. While the true scope and pertinence of his knowledge is known only to Tehran (or was, prior to Feb. 7), the damage he could do to Iran is almost certainly significant. Reports that dozens of IRGC members working in cultural centers and embassies in the Arab world and Europe have been called back to Tehran, for fear that their identities will be disclosed, lend credence to the utility of the information Askari might offer. Some sources have characterized his possible defection as a "deathblow."
While a kidnapped Askari would be of deep concern, an Askari who defected willingly would be a nightmare for Tehran. And this situation could be even more dire than just Askari walking in out of the cold and asking for asylum. The U.S. intelligence community could already have been working him for months -- or years.
Or, Askari might be a double agent, and Iran's "concern" might be just so much bluffery.
10 Comments:
By 
, at
Wed Mar 07, 11:18:00 AM:
The liberal left always talks about wanting peace but its hard of a vulture to pretend to be a dove
By 
Habu, at
Wed Mar 07, 12:22:00 PM:
The "if's" are endless. If we turned him years ago,if he defected,if he was snatched.
Bravo if we got him. Hopefully we will never know.
By allen, at
Wed Mar 07, 12:23:00 PM:
___The Baghdad Summit is up coming.
___The administration, despite much criticism, decides to attend said summit.
___Senator Carl Levin, chairman of the Senate Armed Services Commitee, out of the blue puts Iran and Syria on notice.
___Major Iranian player and his family disappear.
Dots. Are there dots?
By joated, at
Wed Mar 07, 01:00:00 PM:
Anybody know where Jack bauer is right now?
By allen, at
Wed Mar 07, 01:14:00 PM:
This must be an error or misprint by LGF.
IDF Raids Fatah Intel Headquarters, Arrests Dozens
Why, (Oh, stop my beating heart!) Mr. Abbas is a friend, a partner in the “Peace of the Brave”, a staunch ally.
[Whether Israel confiscated any of the 3,000 M-16s and 1M rounds of ammunition shipped to Mr. Abbas recently by the State Department (with Mr. Olmert’s approval) is not reported.]
By allen, at
Wed Mar 07, 01:40:00 PM:
Yes? No? Maybe so.
Missing Iranian general in Europe – report (YNet)
“Asgari is being questioned by military experts for several hours a day regarding the Guards’ role in the bombing of the 1983 bombings of the US Marine and French Corps headquarters in Beirut.”
By D.E. Cloutier, at
Wed Mar 07, 03:21:00 PM:
You probably could put half of the retired military generals in the Middle East on your payroll--not as spies, but as international consultants and cultural advisors. Most of the retired generals receive small monthly pensions. And more than a few of these men regret their career decision to go into the military rather than into business.
Retired generals in the Middle East represent a huge, often untapped potential resource for the U.S. How do I know the potential resource is largely untapped? The U.S. government would not have made some of its mistakes if it had large numbers of these retirees on its payroll.
Make offers. Check out the guys. Give them Green Cards.
Double agents? America's secrets are in the New York Times.
By Assistant Village Idiot, at
Wed Mar 07, 07:13:00 PM:
Well DEC, you talked me into it. Unfortunately, I have no pull...
By D.E. Cloutier, at
Wed Mar 07, 07:38:00 PM:
Nevertheless, thank you for your support on this issue, AVI.
By , at
Wed Mar 07, 09:17:00 PM:
DEC, your idea about hiring those officers as consultants shows a little too much imagination. Good thing you don't work for the Federal Gov. :)
-David
