Sunday, March 04, 2007
The whiskey counterrebellion and "broken windows" counterinsurgency
Iraq the Model's Omar reports at least one promising consequence of the "surge":
While many Iraqi families are returning to the homes they once were forced to leave, there are also Baghdadis who are reopening their stores, ending the months they spent out of business because of violence and intimidation. Some streets that were virtually deserted a few months ago are slowly showing signs of returning to life. The reopening stores even include some liquor shops! There are two stores on one street that I used to shop that closed early last year when their owners received death threats from the insurgents and the militias. Yesterday I walked through that street and, to my amazement, I found both stores open and back in business.
Of course the reopening of two liquor stores is no big deal by itself when we are talking about a city where thousands of businesses are still shuttered. I regard this as a further positive sign of a change in Baghdad’s daily life. It means that those shopkeepers are leaving their fear behind, and openly ignoring the threats of militias and insurgents who once ruled the streets and intimidated the people with threats and violence.
The results of Operation “Imposing Law” are not magical. We didn’t expect them to be magical. The commanders didn’t claim they’d be when the Operation began. Still these latest developments are certainly promising. And let’s not forget that what has been achieved so far was achieved while many thousands of the new troops assigned to Baghdad are yet to arrive.
Then there's this:
Elsewhere in the capital the troops are using not only guns and Humvees, but also shovels and bulldozers. In areas such as Karrada and Palestine Street Iraqi soldiers and workers of the Baghdad municipal services are working on removing trespasses on public property and irregular roadblocks set by locals at earlier times. The measure sparked anger and dismay among some people whose businesses were damaged because the bulldozers also removed irregular kiosks and stalls.
An Iraqi officer explained the decision yesterday by saying that those illegal roadblocks and trespasses were making it difficult for the troops to quickly reach areas where intervention is needed.
Other law enforcement officials are also getting more serious in doing their job. Traffic cops who would normally stop a suspicious vehicle only if it passed by their post are now riding their motorbikes and chasing suspected vehicles down highways and other streets.
This is an indication that Imposing Law does not mean only sending soldiers to kill terrorists. It is reaching out to deal with other aspects of mess and to counter relatively “benign” violations-like breaking the “odd and even” traffic rule, defensive irregular roadblocks and unlicensed kiosks and stalls-by providing protection for the personnel of civilian departments while they do their job.
Commentary
Omar is describing the logic behind George Kelling's and James Q. Wilson's "broken windows" theory of crime control (seminal Atlantic Monthly article here, if you're a subscriber). The basic idea was that enforcement of even petty offenses with intensive beat policing would deter anti-social behavior, cause people to trust law enforcement, restore civil society in tough neighborhoods, and deter much more significant crime. Most politically aware Americans -- including undoubtedly General Petraeus -- know Rudy Giuliani put the theory to the test in New York City during the 1990s, at least arguably to great effect (the argument not being about the massive decline in New York's crime rate, but about the cause of it).
If it worked in the worst neighborhoods in New York City, can it work in Baghdad (backed, of course, by substantially more firepower and far looser rules of engagement than were available to New York's finest)? And is the hope that it can succeed why the Republican front-runner endorsed the surge?
23 Comments:
By 
Purple Avenger, at
Sun Mar 04, 06:25:00 PM:
Very bad news for the dems. They're going to need Fallon to derail this quick or 08' will be a wipeout for them.
By MR, at
Sun Mar 04, 10:45:00 PM:
How well do you think this Rudy video plays in Alabama?
http://minor-ripper.blogspot.com/2007/02/video-rudy-giuliani-does-not-want-you.html
By 
, at
Sun Mar 04, 11:40:00 PM:
Nicely done, Tigerhawk. I've been having some trackback trouble, so wanted to let you know that I linked this post in Iraq and the War on Terror: Winter 2007 Mini-Roundup.
By , at
Sun Mar 04, 11:55:00 PM:
Thinking we can "win" in Iraq is funny.
I think the issue won't be solved until the governments of the world basically determine that Islam is a religion of hate and death and that it will not allow nonbelievers.
Once a few nukes go off in major cities throughout the world, that will happen. Then the only way to face the facts will be to outlaw the religion and kill those that don't obey.
Right now, the technology doesn't exist but soon it will. What will the world do then when the militants of Islam make 911 look like a picnic?
By D.E. Cloutier, at
Mon Mar 05, 11:29:00 AM:
Anonymous: "Then the only way to face the facts will be to outlaw the religion and kill those that don't obey."
Gee, I didn't realize that Jane Goodall had taught chimpanzees how to type.
By , at
Mon Mar 05, 02:52:00 PM:
Discernment is not racial discrimination.
"...the country of origin of most members of Jamaat ul-Fuqra is the United States of America."
Did you notice from that quote the problems of race that are faced by Americans? No? It is recognized in an article which appears in Gates of Vienna.
I suggest that you read the article in full, but I point out some of the reasoning given for that conclusion in the article with the quotes below, followed by my own comments (Thanks to Uspace for the heads up):
"One of the problems facing any attempt to investigate or disseminate information about Jamaat ul-Fuqra, at least in its American branches (Virginia, Colorado, Tennessee, Georgia, New York, etc), is that it largely consists of young black males recruited from prison populations by Saudi-financed chaplains."
"they are mostly African-Americans. Any attempt to deal with them is going to bring the wrath of the Multicultural Mafia down on the head of whoever does it. You can see why the mainstream media shy away from this topic, and why law enforcement is treading so gingerly."
"It’s the omnipresent cultural poison that has infused every nook and cranny of American life: the PC desire to avoid being labeled a “racist.” And there’s always some race-hustling poverty pimp or fund-raising civil-liberties group out there ready to hurl the epithet in all directions. Do you see the conundrum? We have enclaves of Americans who hate America, who have proved themselves willing to do her harm, yet reining them in will be deemed a “hate crime.” Figure your way out of that one."
Not stated in the article, but something of which I am convinced, is that it is not an accident that this issue involving Islamists has been constructed in racial terms. Race has been used as a weapon by a devious enemy for a considerable amount of time to create divisions within our society and to legislate legal weapons into our society which can be used against those Americans who utilize common sense and non-politically correct ways of dealing with problems.
There has been a deliberate introduction and construct of legislation to enable the muzzling of people in the exercise of their constitutional rights and rights of self-protection. The introduction of such race baiting techniques has been intentionally done by people who are enemies of America.
The enemies are and have been anti-Americans. They are usually born American, but have abandoned their birthright for other allegiances. The more effective enemies are not even Islamic, but work with Muslims and shariaists to bring about our downfall as a nation. They are enemies of all Americans - no matter what the race.
Americans do not need color to determine who their friends are nor to determine who their enemies are. They only need discernment. Discernment is not discrimination.
By , at
Mon Mar 05, 02:57:00 PM:
John Lewis can type, and he's not a chimp.
By D.E. Cloutier, at
Mon Mar 05, 03:30:00 PM:
Re: John Lewis
Sorry, Anonymous, I am not impressed.
By , at
Mon Mar 05, 04:46:00 PM:
DEC, you don't have to be impressed. Sad thing is, your attitude is one that many has. You just refuse to believe that someone has declared war on you (unless of course you are a muslim)and think you can work it out.
Islam is brought to the masses not through convincing but through the point of a sword. You shall understand, sooner or later.
By D.E. Cloutier, at
Mon Mar 05, 05:19:00 PM:
I recognize the dangers of radical Islam, Anonymous. I have done business in Islamic countries for 30 years. I lived in Egypt and Indonesia. And I am a Republican, not a Democrat. You can be certain that I have more experience in Islamic societies than 99 percent of the American writers and assistant professors you will read.
Be careful. Constantly reading alarmist right-wing stuff can turn you into Gollum, my dear Smeagol.
By , at
Mon Mar 05, 08:32:00 PM:
DEC, do you really think professors and the media point out the truth?
You don't need to be a rocket scientist to see which way the wind is blowing. The Arab countries tried democracy, that didn't work. They tried socialism, that didn't work. Now look at what they are doing.
Who do you think led the Islamic wars in the past? Could it be their highest profit?
By D.E. Cloutier, at
Mon Mar 05, 10:07:00 PM:
Anonymous: "Now look at what they are doing."
Yeah, well, that's not working out too well for them either.
You don't always have to shoot mosquitoes with howitzers. Sometimes a flyswatter will do the trick.
Islam needs an update. My Muslim friends have told me that for three decades.
By , at
Mon Mar 05, 11:12:00 PM:
DEC, I agree, Islam does need an update. The question is, do the followers of Islam think that? Are the more progressive followers willing to stand up to the conservative force that is in place today?
If not, then the war will continue. Do I want countries to outlaw Islam? Do I want a fence built around the Middle East? Of course not, will it come to pass? Things are not looking good.
By D.E. Cloutier, at
Tue Mar 06, 12:48:00 AM:
This comment has been removed by the author.
By D.E. Cloutier, at
Tue Mar 06, 01:20:00 AM:
The war already has been going on a long time inside the Muslim world, Anonymous. After all, radical Islamists obtained a fatwa and killed Anwar Sadat in 1981. As a supplier of military aviation products, I have been working with Muslim governments in their fight against radical Islamists for roughly 20 years. The U.S. government and most Americans showed little ongoing interest in the problem until 9/11.
The fight will continue. Generally people in other cultures do not move with the speed of Americans. The decentralized structure of Islam makes reform difficult. But I see progress in numerous places around the world.
"Patience is a necessary ingredient of genius," Benjamin Disraeli once said.
By , at
Tue Mar 06, 01:01:00 PM:
DEC, the world has changed. Technology has made new things possible. Soon it will be possible (probable) to arm 50 believers with weapons that can kill millions.
The risks are much higher now, and believing that they are not is not a good thing.
By D.E. Cloutier, at
Tue Mar 06, 01:11:00 PM:
That's life. You better start making more friends rather than more enemies.
By , at
Tue Mar 06, 03:59:00 PM:
Be careful. Constantly reading alarmist right-wing stuff can turn you into Gollum, my dear Smeagol.
So, other than right wing alarmist stuff, what would you say would balance the content?
The fight will continue. Generally people in other cultures do not move with the speed of Americans.
That may be so, but it seems AQ and other hot-heads are able to move faster than the hierarchies.
We do not have the luxury of operating at their speed. The cancer (and don't forget it is state sponsored through ME TV and education) is already planted in western societies.
If the umma were logical, one would expect the message of western society to have been transmitted back to the homeland. I see the opposite. The second generation islamics are more radical than the first.
The decentralized structure of Islam makes reform difficult. But I see progress in numerous places around the world.
I look around the world, and everywhere islam contacts other cultures, there are problems.
Where are the signs that you see, of progress in numerous places around the world?
Nice argument BTW <:-))
By D.E. Cloutier, at
Tue Mar 06, 05:10:00 PM:
Anonymous: "...what would you say would balance the content?"
This blog is a good place to start. TH almost never rings alarm bells. And the ring-wing and left-wing commenters here are some of the best in the blogosphere.
Read relevant news and commentary at the Web sites of the top English-language newspapers in the major business centers of the world. Cover China, the Philippines, Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, India, Australia, and the Middle East. Visit the Web sites of the BBC, Voice of America, Canadian Broadcasting Company, and China's Xinhua news agency. Visit the Web site of IRIN, the UN news agency. Read the Web site of Iran's Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA). Read the online International Herald Tribune in Paris. The IHT is owned by the NY Times. Both papers have many of the same stories, but the Herald Tribune (in my opinion) often does a better job of presentation for someone with interest in international affairs.
This jumpstation will get you started:
http://www.world-newspapers.com/
There are others. You will find them over time. Once you start reading publications like the Jakarta Post regularly, you will start to notice the progress yourself.
Do us all a favor, Anonymous. Put some kind of name at the bottom of your comments. It is hard for the rest of us to tell one anonymous person from another.
By D.E. Cloutier, at
Tue Mar 06, 08:22:00 PM:
Anonymous, that "world newspapers" Web site doesn't seem to be working at the moment. Here is the Web address of a similar site:
http://www.worldpress.org/gateway.htm
By D.E. Cloutier, at
Tue Mar 06, 08:29:00 PM:
P.S. That should read right-wing, not ring-wing, in my earlier comment (about this blog). Sorry for the typo.
By , at
Wed Mar 07, 09:39:00 AM:
DEC, I agree that we should try to make friends, try to be friends. The problem is that there are factions in Islam that need to be addressed. If Islam itself doesn't do it, then others will, to the detriment of the entire religion.
The question is, what support for dealing with these factions is there inside Islam? Are they willing to stand up, to face the sword? Personally, I don't think there is, because the religion is based on bringing their word to the world, if not through persuasion, from the point of a sword. That is a historical and current truth. Thats the basis of the fight.
I know now we hear about the wars that were fought in the name of Jesus, but to tell you the truth, Jesus wasn't the guy leading the army. Who was leading the wars of early Islam? The answer to that really makes a difference, and people ignore that at their risk.
By D.E. Cloutier, at
Wed Mar 07, 12:35:00 PM:
Anonymous, there are problems all over the world that need to be addressed. Look at IRIN, the UN news agency:
http://www.irinnews.org/
Visit the Web sites of a wide range of major overseas newspapers and news agencies every day for the next three months. Or take your next vacation in Egypt, the cultural center of the Arab world. You will change your views. Until then, we will simply have to agree to disagree.
Thanks for the discussion. This is my last comment on this thread.
