Wednesday, January 10, 2007
Divide and Conquer
Luttwak correctly observes that, as a result of the current administration's activist intervention in Iraq, two important and ironic alliances for the US have been created in the Middle East. The first is with Hakim's SCIRI, the leading Shiite political faction in Iraq; the second is with the current Lebanese Prime Minister, Fouad Siniora. The reverberations are critical. Arab Sunnis afraid of the liberation and empowerment of Arab Shiites and their potential alliance with Iran need the US to support and defend them. The newly empowered Arab Shiites continue to need American support to prevent Sunni revanchism and outright civil war.
Luttwak's observations are useful because they point to the way in which deft diplomacy -- the force card having been credibly played -- can now conceivably be used to isolate Iran from Syria and therefore limit Iran's regional power.
Cool stuff.
4 Comments:
By 
D.E. Cloutier, at
Wed Jan 10, 11:47:00 AM:
Thailand's new military-installed government has decided to reduce the ability of foreigners to control Thai companies. Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez has revealed plans to nationalize his country's electrical and telecommunications companies. Former revolutionary Daniel Ortega has returned to power in Nicaragua.
"America the Role Model" continues to suffer blows in other parts of the world as the country pursues its rope-a-dope strategy in the Middle East.
By Dawnfire82, at
Wed Jan 10, 03:32:00 PM:
OP: That article is Subscriber's Only, unfortunately. But being able to play both ends like you suggest is offshore balancing at its theoretical finest. But do we now keep them divided, or pick one and help them win?
Reg DEC: There was a recent article in Foreign Affairs (I think... either that or The National Interest) talking about worldwide signs that globalization had peaked and has begun its decline but that it's unlikely to reverse itself as completely as the last time we had a globalizing trend because of the successful institutions set in place to control and encourage it. (like the WTO, etc.) Examples from Europe, Asia, and North America were all used.
But it doesn't ring true that Thailand's domestic economic policy is determined by our antics in Iraq, and you don't need a Middle Eastern crisis for a socialist-cum-dictator-of-the-month (Chavez) to start nationalizing everything. They just kind of do that on their own.
By D.E. Cloutier, at
Wed Jan 10, 05:41:00 PM:
"But it doesn't ring true that Thailand's domestic economic policy is determined by our antics in Iraq..."
I didn't say it was.
My point: Because of America's preoccupation with the Middle East, the U.S.government is not paying enough attention to developments in parts of Asia and Latin America.
The Thai military grabbed control of the Thai government last September, and the U.S. State Department did little more than shrug.
By Cardinalpark, at
Thu Jan 11, 01:53:00 PM:
DF - I don't think we have much of a say on the state of their division (as to your question about "keeping them divided"). They are divided, both by class and belief, and we ain't gonna resolve that in our lifetime.
However, I do think that shared interests and shared prosperity over time will have the effect of calming the division to levels of acceptable societal argument (i.e. politics) versus violence. That is, I think, what is happening now.
Those less knowledgeable about the region don't understand that the political empowerment of the Shia in an Arab country is a REVOLUTION. Of course, the lefty revolutionaries who should be totally supportive of it don't get it, opting instead for a reactionary defense of the status quo, which happens to be tyrannical and sunni.
Whatever.
As even Time Magazine noted, the Iraqi economy is growing rapidly and noticeably. Kurdistan is booming, emerging as the next regional Israel. The south of Iraq is similarly booming, wtih significant investments in oil and energy infrastructure ongoing.
The tides of history will overwhelm today's footprints in the sand, and the media cacaphony about this failure and that will be washed over. Iraq will emerge as the most prosperous and most free of all the Arab nations, with the Sunni and Shia divided, yes, but not killing each other (at least not for the sectarian reasons we are talking about here:)).
