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Monday, November 13, 2006

Realism? 

There is much chatter as to the meaning of the return of James Baker and Robert Gates to the center of American foreign policy in the Middle East. Much of that chatter is pretty obvious - it recounts their involvement in the decisions made during the Reagan and Bush I administrations which bolstered Saddam as a counterweight to Iran. There seems to be a consensus building that the Baker report will lead to a sellout of the new Iraqi government.

Beats me. If Baker and Gates were both mischievous and Machiavellian in their support for a strong Saddam, their intentions were to counter Iran. That doesn't seem such a bad idea. Might they propose to support a new strongman (likely a Sunni) to run Iraq? Hey, we support Musharraf in Pakistan, right? Anything is possible.

But one thing to me seems almost inevitable about the return of Baker and Company. Israel will no longer feel as though it is a safe, well regarded ally of the US. It was, after all, during the Reagan administration that Israel felt compelled to bomb Osirak (a French developed Iraqi nuclear facility), much to Washington's dismay. It was during Baker's tenure as Secretary of State that the Bush I Administration forced Israel to toe the Oslo line, a line which led predictably to Intifada II and the growth and emboldenment of Hezbollah.

I think that the odds have increased that Israel will feel compelled to act much more aggressively and unilaterally to defend itself viz. Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran. Baker and the traditional CIA elites are no friends of Israel, and Israelis know it.

3 Comments:

By Blogger skipsailing, at Mon Nov 13, 05:31:00 PM:

timins is everything. Olmert is in DC and the French are in Lebannon.

I wonder how the average Jacques is going to deal with a real battle when Hezbullah finally overreaches and starts another war.

These guys scare me, Baker and Co. They strike me as losers from a failed one term administration. I"m not convinced that W will act on their reccommendations at all. he knows that his father lost, he knows why and he knows who was there.

This is a sop to the Democrats and other assorted peace weanies.  

By Blogger D.E. Cloutier, at Mon Nov 13, 06:44:00 PM:

Meanwhile, here is the suggestion from Steve Forbes on how to deal with Iraq:

"The only way that Iraq can hold together--absent an oppressive, mass-murdering regime à la Saddam Hussein's--is by setting up Swiss-style autonomous regions. In Switzerland the German, French and Italian communities have lived peaceably side by side for more than seven centuries, while in the rest of Europe the three groups fought one another incessantly until the end of World War II."

That leaves the question of how to deal with the oil in Iraq. Forbes says: "An Alaska model would neatly and equitably deal with that: Every Iraqi living in the country would get a cut, regardless of where he or she resided."  

By Anonymous Anonymous, at Mon Nov 13, 07:57:00 PM:

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and finally
this
A long read indeed, but explaines many thing of interest to all here, including our host TH
Please do read.  

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