Monday, November 13, 2006
The odds move in Hillary's favor... again
This, I think, is shrewd:
But one thing stood out for me that has been little noted: The decision by Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack to seek the Democratic presidential nomination. This decision is a huge gift to the campaign of Hillary Clinton. With Vilsack in the race, all other Democratic candidates can declare the Iowa caucuses his territory and bail out of there. The quirky state won't play a big role, and that only benefits the 800 lb. Gorilla.
Iowa is a lot of things, but "quirky" isn't one of them. Still, I agree with J-Pod that Vilsack's announcement favors Hillary.
There is are two additional points. First, Tom Vilsack's decision will cost the innkeepers and restauranteurs of the Hawkeye State a huge amount of money in the next 15 months. I wonder how many of them have realized that yet?
Second, if Vilsack isn't on the Democratic ticket in 2008, his announcement this week may well tilt Iowa -- which has been very closely divided in recent elections -- toward the Republicans in the general election. Why? Because there will be far more Republican candidates visiting Ames, Marshalltown, Storm Lake, Ottumwa, Des Moines, Cedar Rapids, Iowa City, Council Bluffs, Sioux City, Davenport, and Bettendorf than there will be Democrats between now and early 2008. That will give the Republicans a huge local advantage in exposure and organization which could very well make the difference in November.
1 Comments:
By 
Assistant Village Idiot, at
Tue Nov 14, 10:26:00 PM:
Given the possible downsides you describe, the term "favorite son candidate" may become even more archaic.
