Saturday, July 22, 2006
Hezbollah: Dumbing down victory
The Associated Press is publishing a bit of Hezbollah spin under the headline "Survival may equal victory for Hezbollah." Basically, reporter Hamza Hendawi has accepted Hassan Nasrallah's absurd definition of "victory" and spewed it back to the A.P.'s readers. The idea, obviously, is to make it impossible in advance for Israel to be perceived as having won no matter how well the war goes from its perspective. By Hezbollah's standard Israel has always "lost" and always will, because there are always going to be Arabs who will take up arms against Israel. If there are states that choose to give those Arabs ranged weapons, they will be fired in to Israel. There is no "once and for all" with Islamist fanatics.
So how will Israel win? Same as always -- by weakening its enemy Hezbollah sufficiently that it will take years to recruit, arm and train new soldiers. The article hints at this victory condition when it observes:
On paper, Hezbollah's chances of surviving a military setback and regrouping to fight again are good. Most of its estimated 5,000-6,000 fighters are hardened by years of combat against Israel during its 18-year control of a border strip in southern Lebanon.
Israel needs to kill as many of those 6,000 veterans as possible. If it does that, it will buy itself the space of de facto peace until Hezbollah builds itself back up and tries again. The rebuilding period will take much longer if the governments in Iran and Syria change their policies to back away from Hezbollah, whether voluntarily or otherwise. Either way, Israel plays an odds game. Since there is no way over the short term to extinguish Islamist terrorists, Israel "wins" by buying time that can be used to interdict or undercut state support for those Hezbollah fighters who survive.
The last paragraph of the article discusses why it is that Arabs will see Hezbollah as having "won" by losing:
[Nasrallah] also taunts his critics in the Arab world, led by key U.S. allies Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Jordan.
"I say to Arab leaders: I don't want your swords and I don't want your hearts ... Leave us alone."
Such undiplomatic talk resonates with many Arabs. His fiery rhetoric harkens back to Gamal Abdel-Nasser, Egypt's late president who led his nation to disastrous military defeat by Israel in 1967. But Nasser's political resilience and charisma made him a respected Arab nationalist leader until his death in 1970.
"Nasrallah is doing what Arab governments are unwilling or incapable of doing — fighting Israel. He is embarrassing them," said Vali Nasr, an expert on Shiites who lectures on national security affairs at the U.S. Naval Postgraduate School in Monterrey, Calif.
"Many people in the Middle East reward courage, not wisdom," said Nasr.
I had never thought of it quite that way. That last sentence may explain both the popularity of suicide bombing and the profound failure of Arab economies to produce anything useful other than the raw materials they extract from the ground.
5 Comments:
By 
Purple Avenger, at
Sun Jul 23, 12:17:00 AM:
Nasrallah's schtick hasn't thusfar impressed the Saudi's or Kuwaiti's.
I think he's made a foolish gamble based on a regional political dynamic that may have existed 6-7 years ago, not the dynamic that exists today.
By Papa Ray, at
Sun Jul 23, 12:55:00 AM:
Arabs (and Persians) value honor and "courage" above all things except Allah.
Their pride is what drives them. It even extends to cheating and corruption. They take pride in putting something over on someone, especially if it is an infidel.
Papa Ray
West Texas
USA
By Final Historian, at
Sun Jul 23, 01:24:00 AM:
Cutting the strings is not enough. We must, in the end, go after the hands as well.
By Escort81, at
Sun Jul 23, 02:45:00 AM:
The AP story has an element of truth to it. In the Middle East, Arabs win by winning (1983 suicide bomb taking out the Marines, or Israel quitting Lebabnon in 2000 -- "Allah has driven the Great Satan out") and they win by losing (99% of the rest of the time -- "look at how the Colonialist Imperialist Zionists kill innocent women and children"). It's a strange version of heads I win, tails you lose.
It's also true that Israel still have rockets launched at its cities once in a while until it deals with those supplying the rockets to the people firing them off in Gaza and South Lebanon. Not to state the obvious, but Israel will find it difficult to ever have true security (such as in pre-9/11 U.S.) as long as there are many Arabs and Persians who do not wish it to exist. Israeli leadership is probably at the point where it could live with the infrequent suicide bomb attempt, but won't tolerate rockets or border skirmishes.
By cakreiz, at
Tue Jul 25, 06:57:00 AM:
Courage instead of wisdom- precisely. Vanity and pride are ME cultural icons. Look at Saddam's blustering- a tad bit of pragmatism would saved his sorry ass. This is all reminiscent of the Black Knight in Monty Python's Holy Grail.
