Friday, February 03, 2006
Syria to establish formal diplomatic ties with Iraq
Syria and Iraq will reestablish diplomatic relations, broken off a quarter of a century ago, as soon as a new government is formed in Baghdad, Syrian Foreign Minister Faruq al-Shara said Thursday.
The two countries "will name ambassadors after the formation of the next Iraqi government", Shara told Iraqi journalists in Damascus, the official SANA news agency reported.
Syria and Iraq, brothers in Ba'athism, have not had formal diplomatic relations since Syria backed Iran in the Iran-Iraq war. Assad pere and Saddam Hussein hated each other's guts, which fact trumped their similar ideology (Arab national socialism in form, cult of personality in fact).*
Nobody should jump for joy that Syria is coming in from the cold, but we can take this as validation of the American belief that the insurgency in Iraq is not going to succeed. After three years of rejectionism, Syria recognizes that it probably will have to deal with the new government of Iraq and the United States for years to come. Syria's recognition of Iraq is at least a vote of declining confidence in the insurgency. It will also make it harder for Syria to support the insurgency, since to do so is the equivalent of waging war.
Syria may also view this as an inexpensive way to lower the heat from the United States. The West is preoccupied with Iran, which means that the Assad government probably hopes to diffuse some of the pressure against it by keeping its head down and playing nice for a while. Also, it has to have occurred to Damascus that the Western confrontation with Iran might end badly for the government in Tehran, Syria's best friend in the region.
Any other thoughts?
_________________________________
* Friendly observation that the Assad-Hussein split is indirect but true refutation of the anti-war cant that ideology would have prevented Saddam Hussein from dealing with Islamists. Just as Hussein would set off a blood feud with his ideological soul-mate, he was willing to deal with anybody whom he thought would defend and extend his power, including both the United States and al Qaeda. Ideology was quite irrelevant to him.
3 Comments:
By 
Cardinalpark, at
Fri Feb 03, 08:46:00 AM:
It cannot be forgotten that Hafez Assad also sided with the US in PG I against Hussein. Assad's Syria drew most of its financial support from the Soviet Union in the ocntext of the Cold War. With the demise of the Soviet Union, Syria needed new friends and benefactors - Hafez, bastard that he was - was a shrewd guy understood he needed the US. The son is literally a political retard. He just figured it out, I think.
At a minimum, he is hedging against the possibility that he loses Iranian sponsorship. As an Alawite minority ruler, he is also straddling between the various cultural divides among sunni, shia and others...
Maybe he is growing up,
CP
By 
, at
Fri Feb 03, 02:09:00 PM:
Hmm... I do have to wonder about this "hatred on sight" between the leaders of Iraq and Syria. We have been hearing rumors of WMDs sent from Iraq into Syria in the lead-up to OIF. There is some evidence to support this, yet if the claim in this blog post is true, would Saddam really send his most effective toys to the country of someone he hates?
It is to wonder...
By TigerHawk, at
Fri Feb 03, 09:43:00 PM:
Saddam got along much better with the younger Assad, and besides, desperate times require desperate measures. If he needed to sneak them out to a nearby country, Syria -- as the only reliably anti-American country in the area other than Iran -- was the best bet. I see your point, though.
