Wednesday, September 03, 2008

The odds on Sarah 

Continuing the spate of media attacks, Yahoo has put on its home page the apparently important news from Bloomberg that London bookmakers have shortened their odds that John McCain will dump Sarah Palin, deeming those who bet that he will "the smart money."

I would take the other side of that action all day long. Bloomberg's "smart money" understands neither John McCain nor the personal appeal of somebody like Sarah Palin. John McCain is no George McGovern. There is simply no chance that he is going to throw in the towel over child-rearing decisions, personal medical decisions, or some sharp elbows thrown in state politics.

MORE: I just read Gary Wills' absurd op-ed piece about McGovern's decision to choose and dump Thomas Eagleton, and how Sarah Palin should remember that Eagleton went on to have an honorable career, dying last year "respected and beloved."

Gary Wills is a piece of shit. McGovern should not have dumped Eagleton, and the idea that John McCain could or would dump Sarah Palin -- at least for the revelations to date -- is offensive.


By Blogger Purple Avenger, at Wed Sep 03, 08:40:00 AM:

I'd take that action all day long too. I've already offered a "friendly" $1,000 wager to one moonbat and got no response.  

By Blogger Anthony, at Wed Sep 03, 08:51:00 AM:

The patronizing condescension of people like Wills and others making the "Eagleton case" is just appalling.  

By Anonymous Anonymous, at Wed Sep 03, 08:59:00 AM:

If you know anything about McCain, sixty days of this he can do standing on his head.

But the defeat of McCain-Palin is already foretold, I am afraid. And the new Age of Obama is about to descend on us.

I would convert as much money into gold as I could, if I were you.


By Anonymous Anonymous, at Wed Sep 03, 09:08:00 AM:

David: And who believes it after Presidents Gore and Kerry? It's going to be a very tight race, that's certain. In the end, and assuming McCain gets the message out, Americans will vote for the kind of hope and change that's characterized the life of one guy in this race.

It's cool to consider that we might elect a black President, but he's just not the one. If he is elected, he'll still need Congress to enact his inane ideas. And four years later, after the world's thugs have slapped the USA around, we'll see another Reagan-like American President.  

By Anonymous Anonymous, at Wed Sep 03, 09:13:00 AM:

If your enemy wants to you to take the low road, it is advisable to break a trail through the woods. Sarah Palin's difficulties pale in comparison to having attended a racist church for 20 years or having a close working relationship with a domestic terrorist, and lying about it, but I don't see the left dropping Obama from the ticket. Sarah Barracuda will do just fine.  

By Anonymous Anonymous, at Wed Sep 03, 09:18:00 AM:

Yahoo News really sucks. A few hours after Sarah was named VP they shifted to the same old Paris Hilton kind of headlines about some actress. I tend to ignore it. I wish I could customize their news feed to get me real news instead of their Democratic Party news summary.  

By Blogger K. Pablo, at Wed Sep 03, 09:31:00 AM:

And the damnable thing is, the betting house in question (PaddyPower) does not accept U.S. customers!!  

By Anonymous Anonymous, at Wed Sep 03, 09:38:00 AM:

Don't mess with Texas, or Alaska for that matter. But above all,


By Blogger D.E. Cloutier, at Wed Sep 03, 09:42:00 AM:

Re: Voters

If every McCain supporter converts one--just one--Obama supporter, McCain gets 84 percent of the vote.  

By Blogger K. Pablo, at Wed Sep 03, 09:54:00 AM:

Not to be hammering away at this particular topic, but I just tried to set up an InTrade account and got blocked. The explanation is that U.S. banks, due to "recent legislation", cannot be used.

My question is, did InTrade acquire this reputation for infallibility before or after this "recent legislation"? That would exclude a lot of stateside savvy, and I find it hard to believe foreigners would be adept at calling these odds.  

By Anonymous Anonymous, at Wed Sep 03, 09:56:00 AM:

What the smart money say abut Obama replacing Clueless Joe. There was a writer the other day (didn't flag it, sorry) who PREDICTED that Hussein would fall so far behind that Biden would drop out at the last minute for some previously unknown but vague medical reason and be replaced by Hillary.  

By Anonymous Anonymous, at Wed Sep 03, 10:01:00 AM:

the idea that John McCain could or would dump Sarah Palin -- at least for the revelations to date -- is offensive.

And if you ask Sarah, against God's will too:

"In her speech to the Wasilla Assembly of God in June, Ms. Palin said it was “God’s will” that the federal government contribute to a $30 billion gas pipeline she wants built in Alaska."

Heaven help us.  

By Blogger Anthony, at Wed Sep 03, 10:12:00 AM:

Oh, please. She's an Evangelical Christian speaking before her Evangelical congregation and putting things in language they have in common. What should she have done, use the Beltway Bureaucratese dialect?  

By Blogger D.E. Cloutier, at Wed Sep 03, 10:26:00 AM:

Remember the Bradley Effect.

From Wiki (in this case it's accurate):

"The name Bradley effect is derived from a 1982 campaign involving Tom Bradley, the long-time mayor of Los Angeles, California. Bradley, who was black, ran as the Democratic party's candidate for Governor of California against Republican candidate George Deukmejian, who was white. The polls on the final days before the election consistently showed Bradley with a lead. In fact, based on exit polls on election day, a number of media outlets projected a Bradley win that night; early editions of the next day's San Francisco Chronicle featured a headline proclaiming 'BRADLEY WIN PROJECTED.' However, Bradley narrowly lost the race. Post-election research indicated that a smaller percentage of white voters actually voted for Bradley than polls had predicted, and that voters who had been classified by those polls as 'undecided' had gone to Deukmejian in statistically anomalous numbers."

It won't happen in every state, but it could easily happen in a key state such as Pennsylvania.

The Bradley Effect may have been the reason Obama lost New Hampshire to Hillary. (Some analysts disgree.)

I am a Republican. I knew and liked Tom Bradley. I expected him to win.  

By Anonymous Anonymous, at Wed Sep 03, 10:34:00 AM:

I may be helping a group build it's budget for the next couple of years and have a question for you. A colleague believes that, if elected Vice President, the cost of Biden's influence will rise. I disagree. The money paid to his son for Biden's influence as a Senator, should be HIGHER than the money paid to his son for Biden's influence as Vice President. What say you? And, please keep this quiet; we'd not want Biden to realize the possible decrease in his trade value and do something rash.  

By Anonymous Anonymous, at Wed Sep 03, 10:43:00 AM:


I think the Bradley Effect is real, especially in states such as Ohio, Michigan, Florida, etc.

But my reason for gloom is this: If the media can get away with what they have done to Sarah Palin and family, and not be reigned in by their corporate masters, then yes indeed, anything is possible.

We all tend to cocoon ourselves, to varying degrees, with the blogs and opinions that we agree with, to a degree. Go read Kos or Firedoglake for a week and come back and tell me how optimistic you can be about America and the future. Those sites are filled with pure hate. Obama knows exactly what those people are like, he went to church with tme for 20 years, and he knows how to use them. And that, my friends, is the shape of things to come.


By Anonymous Anonymous, at Wed Sep 03, 10:59:00 AM:

There's an awful lot of people and electoral votes between NY and California. Most of the likely democrat votes for Obama (blacks, gays) live in the big cities in those states that aren't really in play (NY, CA). Those votes are neither part of the GOP base nor pursued. There's a very low rate of return to chase them.

The other half of America understands that there's no free lunch and that ultimately they're footing the bill. I expect them to show up in mass and vote. And I'm not writing off the younger voters. I was never a liberal, but I would've done a Bradley effect and pretended I was if it got me some liberal poon.

I suspect, thus, that there are many young voters who are not liberals.  

By Blogger D.E. Cloutier, at Wed Sep 03, 11:00:00 AM:

Politics has always been a contact sport, David.

The news media seldom plays fair in politics beyond the local level. People know that.

You may be right. Anything can happen. (Fortunately, I have a second home in Singapore.)

But the fight isn't over. To me, it's just starting to get interesting.  

By Blogger Andrew X, at Wed Sep 03, 12:43:00 PM:

Do you ever get the feeling that, in Western society, there really are basically two tribes, and it's not that they don't see eye to eye, it is that they live on two entirely different planets?

It gets scary not when you watch the left chuck every single solitary thing they have ever said about "privacy of families", "female empowerment", and "experience doesn't matter that much" over the side in a heartbeat. I mean.... politics.... whatever.

What gets scary is when you realize that they honestly, genuinely, in their core, do not feel the SLIGHTEST bit of dissonance when they do so. The idea that they are saying the exact opposite of what they have said for years simply never even enters their radar screen.

And when they look at everything we ALL know about John McCain, even some things we don't like and some things that might cause him to lose, does any sane person on THIS planet think that throwing Sarah Palin under his own bus (currently uncrowded in comparison) is something that is going to happen? Yeah, McCain can handle flaming carriers, broken arms, fractured spines.... spitting on offers to go home if it means dishonor.... but a couple of US Magazine covers and catty news anchors are going to send him cowering under a desk, begging Mitt Romney or whoever to make that woman go home and come save him?

Again.... what freekin' PLANET do these people live on??  

By Blogger RebeccaH, at Wed Sep 03, 02:00:00 PM:

The McGovern/Eagleton thing happened in a different era, when not many people understood psychiatric care and thought it was something shameful. This is a new day and age, and a teenaged daughter's accidental pregnancy is a different situation.

After all the hooplah, John McCain wouldn't dare dump Sarah Palin, even if he wanted to. And I think she's too tough to bail.  

By Blogger Elise, at Wed Sep 03, 03:16:00 PM:

"In her speech to the Wasilla Assembly of God in June, Ms. Palin said it was “God’s will” that the federal government contribute to a $30 billion gas pipeline she wants built in Alaska."

That's what the New York Times says. That's not what Governor Palin said. Her comments about this begin around 3:55 into the video. She's talking to the Master Candidates (not explained but they sound like congregants beginning a period of proselytizing) about striking a deal with them, essentially splitting up God's work and Caesar's:

I can do my part in doing things like working really, really hard to get a natural gas pipeline - about a $30 billion project that's going to create a lot of jobs for Alaskans and will have a lot of energy flowing through here. And pray about that also. I think God's will has to be done in unifying people and companies to get that gas line built, so pray for that.

Clearly, those comments can interpreted in more ways than one. I'd have more faith that the editorial you quote is an honest interpretation if they had either quoted the exact comments or provide a link so readers could decide for themselves.

I read Palin's comments to mean not that the pipeline is God's will but that in order for the pipeline to be built it must be God's will that people and companies be unified so she asking her audience to pray that such unification is God's will. I'd say my interpretation is backed up by later remarks where Palin expresses astonishment that her pastor prayed for her to be governor rather than praying for God's will for the governorship be done.  

By Anonymous Anonymous, at Wed Sep 03, 03:27:00 PM:

McGovern should not have dumped Eagleton..

Perhaps McGovern should not have dumped Eagleton for not having informed him about his hospitalizations for depression. Had McGovern known that Eagleton was the anonymous Democratic Senator source for the “acid, amnesty, and abortion” description of McGovern, McGovern would never have had him on the ticket in the first place.

On April 25, 1972, George McGovern won the Massachusetts primary and journalist Bob Novak phoned Democratic politicians around the country, who agreed with his assessment that blue-collar workers voting for McGovern did not understand what he really stood for.[4] On April 27, 1972 Novak reported in a column that an unnamed Democratic senator had talked to him about McGovern.[5] "The people don’t know McGovern is for amnesty, abortion and legalization of pot," the Senator said.[5] "Once middle America - Catholic middle America, in particular - finds this out, he’s dead."[5] The label stuck and McGovern became known as the candidate of "amnesty, abortion and acid."[4][6]
Novak was accused of manufacturing the quote.[5] To rebut the criticism, Novak took Eagleton to lunch after the campaign and asked whether he could identify him as the source.[5] The senator said he would not allow his identity to be revealed.[5] "Oh, he had to run for re-election", said Novak.[4] "The McGovernites would kill him if they knew he had said that." Novak added.[4]
On July 15, 2007, Novak disclosed on Meet the Press that the unnamed senator was Thomas Eagleton.[4] Political analyst Bob Shrum says that Eagleton would never have been selected as McGovern's running mate if it had been known at the time that Eagleton was the source of the quote.[4] "Boy, do I wish he would have let you publish his name. Then he never would have been picked as vice president," said Shrum.[4] "Because the two things, the two things that happened to George McGovern—two of the things that happened to him—were the label you put on him, number one, and number two, the Eagleton disaster. We had a messy convention, but he could have, I think in the end, carried eight or 10 states, remained politically viable. And Eagleton was one of the great train wrecks of all time."[4]

What Eagleton got from McGovern was poetic justice. Eagleton was less than candid to McGovern about his hospitalizations, and he was less than candid to McGovern about his conversation with Robert Novak. Poetic justice.  

By Blogger Elise, at Wed Sep 03, 03:34:00 PM:

Oh, and about that Wills piece. A day or two ago I read a blogger who claimed that the "concerned observers" urging Palin to drop out were starting to sound an awful lot like the "concerned analysts" who had urged Hillary Clinton to drop out. I wasn't buying it then but I'm starting to.

I'm not sure who Wills insults more: McCain by calling him a liar and a fool or Palin by suggesting she lied and should quit to "minimize her own humiliation". Ugh. I'm afraid I have to agree with your description of Wills.  

By Anonymous Anonymous, at Wed Sep 03, 04:19:00 PM:

It's much more likely that Slow Joe Biden will be tossed under the bus, than Sarah Palin.

Already there's an open whispering campaign that he's a drag on the ticket. Especially since he's wandering around praising McCain as "completely ethical" and saying that Palin is "absolutely qualified to be VP".

I'd be willing to bet that the odds of Joe being jettisoned by Barry O. are five or six times higher than those of Palin.

Think it can't happen?

One word: Torricelli!  

By Blogger Dawnfire82, at Wed Sep 03, 05:17:00 PM:

Biden = Hillary operative?

Wheels within wheels.


By Anonymous Anonymous, at Wed Sep 03, 05:37:00 PM:

Uh oh. Noonan calls it for what it is: bullsh*t.

Drip, drip, drip.  

By Anonymous Anonymous, at Wed Sep 03, 05:50:00 PM:

Well, shit G, if Noonan says it over then it must be. You know everyone in the GOP walks in lockstep, so if one person says it was a hail mary, then it must be, right?

C'mon clown. Just how many Democrats are cursing that Hillary didn't get the not? How many are cursing with that idiot Biden on the ticket?

Just because the Dems are writing talking points around every little thing doesn't change the fact that deep down, people have to vote for a black man for President. And more than that, a man with virtually no preparation to lead. That's the 'audacity of hope' here ...

BTW ... I like the misdirection of swapping out biden for hillary. That'd be priceless.

I'm expecting a good speech by Palin tonight.  

By Blogger Barry Dauphin, at Thu Sep 04, 12:48:00 AM:

Garry Wills is the author, most recently, of “What the Gospels Meant.”

How can you criticize Garry Wills, since he's the only one who knows what the gospel meant? No wonder he supports The One.  

By Blogger Miss Ladybug, at Thu Sep 04, 01:43:00 AM:

Following a link to InTrade from HotAir - the odds that Palin will be thrown under the bus are down 10.8 to 8.1%.

Odds of BO being elected is down 2.2 and odds for McCain is up 2.3  

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