Wednesday, August 20, 2008

Poll mania: McCain jumps out in front 

Sitting as I am in the north woods, I am going to let more connected bloggers tease the meaning from the latest polling news, that John McCain has pulled in front of Barack Obama. Memeorandum round-up here.

OK, I cannot resist a couple of comments.

Apart from the top line result, there is at least one bit of bad news for Obama, qualified as it is by an almost unbelievably snarky aside from al-Reuters:

McCain now has a 9-point edge, 49 percent to 40 percent, over Obama on the critical question of who would be the best manager of the economy -- an issue nearly half of voters said was their top concern in the November 4 presidential election.

That margin reversed Obama's 4-point edge last month on the economy over McCain, an Arizona senator and former Vietnam prisoner of war who has admitted a lack of economic expertise and shows far greater interest in foreign and military policy.

Maybe a 20 year senator and former Navy aviator who admits "a lack of economic expertise" is just more credible than a 4 year senator and former law professor who does not. Ever think of that, Reuters?

Republicans should not get cocky. The Democrats will have to run the most screwed up convention in a generation for Obama not to get a huge bounce next week. And the press is going to be fighting for him all the way.

In any case, Glenn Reynolds points to one crucial -- perhaps dispositive -- factor in Obama's favor.


By Anonymous Anonymous, at Wed Aug 20, 10:20:00 AM:

Trust and integrity.

I think at the end of the day what people say they're going to do, and do when they vote their conscience, are two different things.

John McCain is far from perfect, and not my first choice, but I sure trust him more, and can measure the broader documented life experiences and Senatorial experience/record. Obama has too many questions around his mentors and associations, and zero history in public office. He's not a leader, he's just a celebrity.

And in a world dealing with new aggression with Russia, the ongoing WOT and the global economic issues, who wants to hear about getting their pocket picked to fund more social programs?

In the end, I think McCain pulls this out, even if he picks someone who the far right is wetting their pants over.  

By Anonymous Anonymous, at Wed Aug 20, 10:28:00 AM:

Bu..bu..bu..but...hope! And change! And hope! Chaaange!!!!!  

By Anonymous Anonymous, at Wed Aug 20, 10:40:00 AM:

And what is the economic expertise of a guy who will raise capital gains tax because it's "fair" to do so even if it results in net loss of revenue to the government?


By Blogger Counter Trey, at Wed Aug 20, 11:14:00 AM:

I also expect Hussein to get a bounce from his convention, but did you see the lineup? Carter, Gore, and Kerry? And now he's allowing the Clintons to stage a potential coup? Don't underestimate his ability to screw up his own convention. I think he already has.  

By Anonymous Anonymous, at Wed Aug 20, 11:19:00 AM:

ditto counter trey --

The pre-convention polls are suspect -- they could just as easily be sandbagging Obama's drop in order to tout the post-convention bump.  

By Anonymous Anonymous, at Wed Aug 20, 11:22:00 AM:

... and emphasize the get out and vote early and often strategy.

I believe most Americans know that the hand-outs Obama has in mind will not make it to them, so they're going to pay more to get less. That doesn't resonate generally, and especially in periods that are not economically favorable.  

By Anonymous Anonymous, at Wed Aug 20, 11:57:00 AM:

Wow, Jesse 'cut your nuts out' Jackson will be speaking on Monday night. And Al Goreacle and Jean Fraude Ketchup will be speaking on Thursday night in the Obamadome.
Djimmah Car(bombersuppor)ter will also be speaking along with Bill Clinton. The only ghosts of dem president nominees-socialists' past who doesn't have a spot right now are Dukakis and Mondale. I guess those failed candidates are too far to the right of the Obamanation? Wonder when Wonder Woman from San Francrisco will be speaking, or Harry 'used car salesman' Reid?
With the Obamanation's poll numbers plunging, I wonder who are receiving speed dial calls from the Clinton's campaign this week?
Wonder how large buyer's remorse is setting in the dhimmicrat party? Trouble is both the top spots on the nomination are horrific prospects-tweedledum and tweedle hillary.
This is soooo cool, the dems are twisting in the wind, but are trying to put a brave face on disaster. Will they march like lemmings off the cliff at the convention? Imagine if the delegates and superdelegates actually switch to Clinton, heads will explode and a 50 megaton bomb will detonate that will tear the dem party apart for years to come? Time for the popcorn.  

By Anonymous Anonymous, at Wed Aug 20, 12:09:00 PM:

Eagle ... wasn't yesterday's news that Pelosi broke her foot (?) and would not make the convention?

I'm holding out for a guest appearance by the Breck Girl with his illegitimate child in tow. Now that'd make for some entertainment.  

By Anonymous Anonymous, at Wed Aug 20, 04:34:00 PM:

Where are the democrat pimps, the party masters who, behind the scenes manipulate the useful idiots? Where are the super-delegates? They are supposed to save us from weak, ultra-left wing candidates who will set the party back another 20 years.  

By Anonymous Anonymous, at Wed Aug 20, 09:17:00 PM:

What sayeth the famous Univ of Chicago pollster at this point in time?  

By Blogger Charles Edward Frith, at Wed Aug 20, 09:43:00 PM:

I just get a little confused as to the hero thing with McCain. Hero's are good I guess in heroic situations but as far as I can work out McCain's heroic situation was being chained to a radiator.

Worthy of pity but stretching the heroic thing for me at least.

Then I start to way up some basic stuff, like I've never heard John McCain say anything incisive or dare I say it intelligent. Everything I've ever seen McCain leads me to conclude that he's a politician first and a leader second. The hero thing just muddies the situation for me.

Of course I've seen some talk that the U.S. needs a politcian more than a leader in some elements of the blogosphere and all I can say is one gets the leader one deserves.  

By Blogger Dawnfire82, at Wed Aug 20, 10:55:00 PM:

I dunno, Charles, I always figured that denying offered special treatment from your captors and thereby suffering horrific tortures that neo-hippies can only fathom in their darkest nightmares and then returning to duty to complete your career as a naval officer qualified as heroic.

"Injured and ill, McCain was denied medical assistance until his captors learned that he was an admiral's son, and even then treatment was rudimentary. His father's position also prompted the North Vietnamese to offer him early release in June of 1968. McCain refused, as the U.S. Military Code of Conduct required that prisoners accept release on a first in/first out basis, and there were more than 100 POWs ahead of him. His refusal resulted in a round of torture that included knocking his teeth out, hanging him by his broken arms, and beating him almost around the clock for a week. Although the abuse never succeeded in convincing McCain to accept early release, he did break down and sign a confession that he was a "black criminal" and an "air pirate." The shame of the confession led McCain to contemplate suicide at the time, and stayed with him years after the fact. "The only thing I can say is that the code says you will resist to the best of your ability," he told Pierce in 1998. "But I failed myself. I failed my fellow prisoners. I failed my family, and I failed my country. Is there anybody else?" Most did not judge McCain as harshly as he judged himself; many, indeed, found his ongoing determination to remain in prison heroic. He was finally released on March 14, 1973, and returned home with a Silver Star, Bronze Star, Legion of Merit, Purple Heart, and the Distinguished Flying Cross."

So what DO you consider "heroic?"  

By Blogger TigerHawk, at Thu Aug 21, 07:33:00 AM:

And then the intelligent bit - I personally think he is just about the only American politician who has been right about Iraq at every major juncture. Yes, we should invade; yes, we need more troops; yes, we should support David Petraeus; yes, withdrawal should be conditions-based.

Of course, opinions may differ.  

By Blogger Mrs. Davis, at Thu Aug 21, 04:08:00 PM:

Wait till after the debates. Saddleback was only a preview for the junkies. McGovern will look like a strong candidate by the time Big Mac is finished with Barry.  

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