Tuesday, November 02, 2010
I think you know what you need to do today. Unless, of course, you've already done it. See you back here this evening to natter on about election returns.
Net 55 in the House.
Ding Dong the Witch is Dead! Nancy retires after the 111th Congress adjourns. Boehner gets the next cover on Time.
Ding Dong the Witch is Dead! Barney Frank loses, as his Brookline base stays home.
On paper, the remaining House Democrats will lean even lefter. So who do they pick to replace Nancy? The crystal ball is getting cloudy ....
Net 8 in the Senate.
Reid out. Speaker of the House is Chuck Schumer. Schumer has a pragmatic side. He could emerge as an influential counter to Obama and the House Democrats.
Lame Duck Congress? Gridlock?
The outgoing 111th Congress still has to pass a budget for FY 2011. Expect a big fight over tax cuts and last gasp earmarks while Boehner proposes spending cuts. It'll be the opening battle in a war that will go on for years. It'll escalate on December 1 when the Deficit Reduction Commission reports. Finally, MSM will start reporting on how the numbers don't add up for either side. Congressman Ryan will get quoted a lot. Obama will get Angry a lot -- his personal popularity will drop to 35%.
The Fed will launch the QE2 -- up to a trillion in direct purchases of US debt. Many think it will turn into $2 trillion. The dollar will drop another 20%.
Unemployment won't go down.
GM will file its pricing amendment for its upcoming IPO today. Coincidence? Not. The pricing range will imply a market cap of $50 billion to $60 billion, down from the $70 billion or more that we were initially led to think. Ford has climbed to $49 billion from around $40 billion in recent months. A GM valuation of $70 billion gets the USA to break-even on our investment. GM was never going to be valued higher than Ford -- we've been lied to all along. None of the money being raised is going to GM -- some will go to the USA and Canada, the rest will go to the UAW Retiree Benefit Fund ... that's the real scandal.
The crystal ball is getting cloudy ...
Ignoramus - I think you mean Schumer would become Senate Majority Leader, not Speaker, assuming Reid loses the Nevada election. In the House, Steny Hoyer from Maryland would be next in line to become House Minority Leader, assuming the Republicans re-take the House and Pelosi calls it quits. It is possible that the Democratic caucus could bypass Hoyer and elect entirely new leadership.
It will be interesting to see how the politics plays out between the White House and the House. There certainly is a possible scenario where the rhetoric between the president and his surrogates on one hand, and Boehner and Cantor on the other, becomes quite heated very quickly. Nothing gets done and the 2012 campaign starts right away. The temptation for both sides to engage in that strategy will be strong, and it might be the best means of survival for the White House, though not the path that is most constructive for the nation.