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Thursday, June 04, 2009

Will we have a "V-shaped" recovery? 


Here's an interesting deck of slides that uses graphs to set forth the arguments for and against a "V-shaped" economic recovery, which would certainly be more fun than a "U-shaped" recovery or, Allah forfend, an L-shaped situation, which would not be a recovery at all. Scroll through them.


6 Comments:

By Anonymous JT, at Thu Jun 04, 07:24:00 AM:

Interesting that it's posted by Tyler Durden ... I like the line in that flick that "given a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero".

Given a long enough timeline, we will recover to whatever our new economic reality is, but the data presented to us daily is laughable. New and existing home sales up!!! oh, but they're for houses selling at 200K that used to be 600K ... but on a % basis, we're closing on a lot of them. Grab the stack of credit cards, let's go do some hope/change spending kids.  

By Blogger Simon Kenton, at Thu Jun 04, 10:56:00 AM:

I did scroll through them, as you suggested. There is a problem. The caption writer was not looking at the same graphs Durden posted.  

By Blogger Fellow American, at Thu Jun 04, 11:03:00 AM:

Here's a good article by FPA's Robert Rodriguez that takes a stab at this question. I thought it was a good read. His answer to a V shaped recovery is NO, and he has a good deal to say about our wonderful leaders to boot. Bit of a screed actually.

Reflections and Outrage

Scroll down to the "Outlook" section for his talk of the V shaped recovery.  

By Blogger Purple Avenger, at Thu Jun 04, 01:28:00 PM:

I think the Spendulus pretty much waxed any hopes of a V-shape recovery  

By Blogger Georgfelis, at Thu Jun 04, 01:36:00 PM:

Frightening to see that this economic dump has plunged us farther down in economic growth than about anything else in current history. Good thing we have a president who is cutting taxes and regulations for businesses, restricting government spending, and extending his hand to help the economy climb back out of this massive hole or we could be seeing a plunge into poverty that could shake the whole country to the foundation.

Oh, wait, that was Reagan. God I miss him.  

By Anonymous Anonymous, at Fri Jun 05, 02:35:00 AM:

I'm hoping for a S-shaped recovery, since that would mean we have acquired the ability to travel backwards in time  

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