Thursday, June 04, 2009
Here's an interesting deck of slides that uses graphs to set forth the arguments for and against a "V-shaped" economic recovery, which would certainly be more fun than a "U-shaped" recovery or, Allah forfend, an L-shaped situation, which would not be a recovery at all. Scroll through them.
Interesting that it's posted by Tyler Durden ... I like the line in that flick that "given a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero".
Given a long enough timeline, we will recover to whatever our new economic reality is, but the data presented to us daily is laughable. New and existing home sales up!!! oh, but they're for houses selling at 200K that used to be 600K ... but on a % basis, we're closing on a lot of them. Grab the stack of credit cards, let's go do some hope/change spending kids.
Here's a good article by FPA's Robert Rodriguez that takes a stab at this question. I thought it was a good read. His answer to a V shaped recovery is NO, and he has a good deal to say about our wonderful leaders to boot. Bit of a screed actually.
Reflections and Outrage
Scroll down to the "Outlook" section for his talk of the V shaped recovery.
Frightening to see that this economic dump has plunged us farther down in economic growth than about anything else in current history. Good thing we have a president who is cutting taxes and regulations for businesses, restricting government spending, and extending his hand to help the economy climb back out of this massive hole or we could be seeing a plunge into poverty that could shake the whole country to the foundation.
Oh, wait, that was Reagan. God I miss him.