Friday, May 15, 2009
The Republicans need to beat Jon Corzine in November
On June 2, New Jersey Republicans will nominate either Chris Christie or Steve Lonegan to run against sitting Democratic governor Jon Corzine in November's general election. The bad news is that neither Republican candidate is obviously a war horse. See, e.g., the Star-Ledger's account of their debate (which I will watch at some point, but have not yet), in which Christie offered mathematically impossible solutions to the state budget problems, while Lonegan declared himself against progressive taxation and took other positions calculated to lose the general election in this, the "bluest" state in the country.
The good news, though, is that both Republicans are running ahead of Corzine in the polls, Lonegan within the margin of error and Christie considerably above it.
As a resident of New Jersey, one would think that I would care a lot about this race on the substance. I do not. I have little confidence that either Republican could push through the structural reforms necessary to put this state in a sound, or simply not-catastrophic, fiscal condition. However, if the Republicans were to win their way into Drumthwacket in November it would make headlines all over the country and substantially change the narrative for the federal mid-term elections in 2010. The New Jersey gubernatorial election holds the possibility of a national impact, and the national GOP ought to do anything and everything within its power to help the winner of the June 2 primary.
So the question is, which of these candidates is more likely to beat Jon Corzine? On the math as we know it today, you have to go with Christie. He is better known than Lonegan, and he is, at the moment, running better against Corzine in the polls. Of course, that does not mean that Christie would ultimately run the better campaign, but that is what we have so far. Also, we have this, from a diarist at the lefty uber blog Daily Kos:
Democrats are probably secretly hoping for a Lonegan upset, and there is at least a little evidence that they may still get it. Rasmussen also polled the primary, and found Christie with just a ten-point lead over Lonegan (39-29).
Well, that is almost good enough for me. Whether or not one should, in the abstract, vote for the candidate, the race for the New Jersey statehouse certainly ought to be a partisan war for national marbles. Let's hope the Republicans clue in and make it one.
9 Comments:
By 
, at
Fri May 15, 08:12:00 AM:
From Link:
Christie's winning would be a national holy shit headline and a wake-up call for the saner Democratic members of Congress -- that's where the leverage is right now. Good luck!
By , at
Fri May 15, 08:18:00 AM:
Maybe so Link, and for that reason alone I'll hold my nose and vote for the fat stiff. Lonegan doesn't have a prayer in my opinion.
If Christie were to fully expose the cost of an average government worker, including the actuarial value of future health and retirement costs, and make that his central campaign issue I'd be more excited.
I'd like to see a Constitutional Convention. Corzine toyed with the idea briefly. At that convention I'd like to see a provision passed that requires all public employees the state over to be paid all employee compensation in W-2 form, and let the unions offer benefits. That way, citizens would know exactly what these clowns are costing us. I'd also like to see Citizen Initiative passed in the state.
By , at
Fri May 15, 08:34:00 AM:
Dems are pretty worried about this. Enough so that Christie is being called to testify before a House Subcommittee about "deferred prosecution agreements" and from the looks of it, this is happening because two NJ Democrats, including Frank Pallone, are sponsoring legislation that is clearly aimed at undermining Christie. Here's the link:
http://www.politickernj.com/max/29619/house-subcommittee-sets-may-19-date-dpa-hearings
By 
Christopher Chambers, at
Fri May 15, 08:42:00 AM:
AS Tip O'Neill said, "All politics is local." Even if the GOP takes back Drumthwacket, it'll be over you all's insane parochial stuff (and Corzine's strangeness). Nationally, you all are still stuck with Rush and Cheney.
Of course my fantasy baseball card is Corey Booker...
By TigerHawk, at
Fri May 15, 08:44:00 AM:
I like Booker, too. He is my favorite New Jersey Democrat.
By , at
Fri May 15, 08:49:00 AM:
If Corzine would get out of the way, Booker would be unbeatable.
By Mike, at
Fri May 15, 10:41:00 AM:
The Republicans should draft Booker across party lines - he thrills me and I'm well to the right of the Republicans.
Ironically, Corzine decided to leave Washington because it wasn't enough fun being Senator in a minority party. I'd criticize his political foresight, but I also thought the Dems were exiling themselves to the permanent minority with all their nutroots talk. Turns out it works!
By Chris Wysocki, at
Fri May 15, 10:54:00 AM:
The biggest problem with New Jersey Republicans is New Jersey Republicans. They always manage to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Why? Because they can't articulate a coherent message and they can't put aside their differences to win elections.
As you noted the real issue in this election is to drive a stake through the democrats heart. We need to WIN. Ideological battles for "GOP purity" are counterproductive. If we were already in the majority and had the luxury of choosing the most "republican" or most "conservative" candidate then that's one thing. But when you're in the wilderness and you've got a guy who can win decisively, it's dumb to waste time and resources in internecine warfare.
That's why I'm behind Chris Christie. He may not be perfect, but he's a damn sight better than Jon Corzine.
By , at
Fri May 15, 11:25:00 AM:
Stop with the National ramifications B.S.,that's like a prizefighter focusing/discussing the fight AFTER his upcoming bout. New Jersey elections are won Ward by ward, block by block.
