Monday, April 06, 2009
History Returns
If North Korea is to be deterred or reformed, it will spring from a Chinese decision that arises out of a concern over Japan. Ultimately, a Japanese drive to rearm and defend itself - and cease its post WWII pacifism - will lead to more sensible and humane behavior from NK.
In the Middle East, though more complex, the US will increasingly leave Israel to fend for its own interests insofar as those interests don't collide with American objectives. The US under the Bush Administration did not preclude Israel from bombing Syria or re-entering Gaza, for instance, to defend itself. It is less clear how the Obama Administration will handle Israeli actions, especially with respect to Iran. But I would not be surprised to see the current Administration have a hands off policy. I would imagine Israel would still be subject to an American veto over certain actions for which it seeks permission. But Netanhayu may elect not to ask for such permission if it feels compelled to act on Iran.
And the Georgian lesson should not be lost on the rest of Europe, especially Germany. If Russia intends to attempt to flex its regional oil and gas muscles, the US will not provide an explicit or even implicit shield. Even missile defense is up for discussion. The Germans - the "Europeans" - will have to fend for themselves.
It is a journey back in time as we march forward - one with various spheres of influence with leadership derived from the logal hegemon with only occasional American imposition.
4 Comments:
By 
Kurt, at
Mon Apr 06, 12:17:00 PM:
As long as B.O. is our president, I'm skeptical of your assertion that the U.S. will protect its own vital interests. Protect our borders? Unlikely. Protect the resources that we need for our economy to function? That depends on who is threatening them and what options exist for appeasement.
By Dawnfire82, at
Mon Apr 06, 01:00:00 PM:
I'm sure he'll pursue US interests. Just the interests that he sees as important, which don't necessarily match up with others'. He's already broken a string of promises with regard to Iraq, for example, because someone managed to convince him that his stated policies during the campaign were retarded. He recently (yesterday?) restated a commitment to European missile defense.
By 
MAS1916, at
Mon Apr 06, 01:01:00 PM:
The real danger here is that it has already become evident that the UN is powerless to take meaningful action. Obama has put his faith in the UN body and has stated that nations must uphold their agreements. Obama has called the DPRK out on their actions. The DPRK - as well as the rest of the world - are laughing at him.
Obama just showed his cards and they are all blank - right along with his international intellect.
By Unknown, at
Mon Apr 06, 05:16:00 PM:
Leaving "Israel to fend for its own interests" doesn't make any sense when one considers that the people who are going to be BUYING the missiles that North Korea seems able to produce are likely to be targeting that state. See: http://www.newsy.com/videos/the_mixed_nuclear_reaction/
The real question should be how quick can NATO respond with a workable ABM system for mid-rangers that still pop up into space?
