Monday, November 03, 2008
November 4th
John McCain will be our next President. I say this despite residing in Manhattan, a place where the echo chamber is so resoundingly prObama that it is difficult to maintain one's sense of proportion. But let me restate why I believe McCain will win, and why I think he will capture - comfortably - the popular and electoral votes.
1) The US electorate is no less center-right today than it ever has been, either on economics or foreign policy matters. It has been a core polling assumption that this is not the case. I simply don't buy it.
2) Obama is the candidate most reflective of a hard liberal left agenda than the US has seen since Henry Wallace. He is articulate, and very smart, but has failed to make the case that he is a center left moderate. McCain and Obama have become clearly distinguishable from a policy and experiential perspective, and McCain's stances are more aligned to the US electorate.
3) Turnout will be high for both candidates, not merely Obama. The McCain selection of Palin, dismissed by the northeastern media and pols as flawed, in fact energizes conservative turnout, especially in critical areas western Pennsylvania and in Ohio. In fact, it is altogether possible that Obama turnout suffers from premature celebrations, both by gaudy pre-election day poll leads, and misleading early exit poll information.
4) The "undecided" vote we have heard so much about breaks decidedly for McCain. This is precisely what consistently happened during the Democratic primary season, whereby late undecideds broke for Clinton, even though she was in no position to win the nomination. This prevents Obama from getting to even 49% of the electorate.
This is been a lengthy and remarkable election season. John McCain has been routinely underrated and written off by both conservative and liberal pundits, in part precisely because he is a man of the center. Though he probably only had the support fo 40% of Republican primary voters, he benefitted from a split between Romney and Huckabee voters. Now he has the full support of his constituency, further energized by his Palin selection. But because he is experienced and a proven moderate, he will reach into the moderate, blue dog Democratic vote which is not embarrassed to vote McCain as a safe set of hands. Obama has run an extraordinary, Cinderella campaign. He exploited Clinton's organizational shortcomings and developed a media love affair which carried him to the edge of the Presidency, a place where by politics and experience alone he did not belong. But through charisma and a sense of aspiration, he found great enthusiasm for his candidancy more than his policy agenda. In the end, this will not be enough for him to secure a majority.
What a great country!
19 Comments:
By 
Dawnfire82, at
Mon Nov 03, 04:01:00 PM:
"recapitulate"
Re-surrender?
I agree with your reasoning. I called bullshit on those polls many weeks ago, and contemporary wisdom has caught up to me. I also predicted the PUMA phenomenon back in the Spring. Things are a lot closer than everyone seems to think they are.
But I'm not so confident as you about victory. Indeed, I suspect a close Obama victory. But it'll probably depend on how many of his 'young new voters' will bother to go do the deed. I offer 'Obama girl' as exhibit A.
By 
, at
Mon Nov 03, 04:11:00 PM:
#5 ... we see some unrest in major cities as a result.
I think in the privacy of the voting booth, the 'undecideds', who likely include the McCain leaners who don't care to engage in accusations of being racist, etc. just show up and vote their conscience. It's the 3 am question of Hillary ... and the people trust the old guy, with the war experience, middle-right stance, longer tenure in the Senate more.
For every person scared by Sarah, there's another (like me) scratching the head trying to figure if Biden isn't neurologically impaired.
By Charlottesvillain, at
Mon Nov 03, 04:45:00 PM:
Very interesting post, CP. It is hard to believe it was forged in the leftist cauldron of UWS Manhattan.
DF: "PUMA phenomenon?" Isn't this when older women hit on young guys in bars?
JT: Come on, Biden as veep would be the gift that keeps on giving (at least for bloggers). Worth a lever pull for the material alone. Maybe that's too cynical, but that's where I am now.
I'm scared to death of Obama but have always detested McCain, and see no evidence that as president he will do anything to win me over. The last time I felt this way was '92 and I voted for Perot. Wish he was running now.
I am one of those last minute undecideds I've been reading about. At this stage it is "pick your poison and pray" and I can't wait for the damn thing to be over.
By Cardinalpark, at
Mon Nov 03, 04:46:00 PM:
DF - recapitulate is the lengthened verion of "recap", to provide a summary.
Far be it from me to capitulate (or surrender) once, twice or ever.
By , at
Mon Nov 03, 04:48:00 PM:
I think Cardinalpark's reasons are accurate. The youth vote is overrated, the polls were skewed to reflect Obamania. Moderate voters will choose McCain and do not respond to polls. They aren't so fanatical about expressing their politics resulting in lower McCain counts.
By Escort81, at
Mon Nov 03, 04:48:00 PM:
CP -
Well, we'll know if you are correct in a day or so.
If you are in fact correct, what possible use is there for polling organizations (at least, the ones that try to be straight shooters)? I realize you touch on this in your point (1), and I have taken graduate level statistics courses, and I understand the complexities of sampling and sample bias (Iowahawk has a funny and accurate post on that a week or so ago), but, man, all of the pollsters would show themselves to be completely useless.
Why would they stay in business after such a debacle -- the debacle not being Obama's loss per se, but the pollsters' unanimously incorrect forecast. I mean, and I am assuming you make hiring and firing decisions of employees and vendors on a fairly routine basis -- would you retain a person or an organization that was historically bad at its job?
By Dawnfire82, at
Mon Nov 03, 04:50:00 PM:
"DF: "PUMA phenomenon?" Isn't this when older women hit on young guys in bars? "
Nah, that's the Cougar phenomenon. The PUMA phenomenon is when older women flock to an older man out of jealousy or contempt for a younger man.
By , at
Mon Nov 03, 04:53:00 PM:
If wishes were horses, beggars would ride.
CP, you are undoubtedly a very bright man, much smarter and more successful than myself. I don't begrudge you that. As are many of the more optimistic posters here (such as DF82).
But what are you smoking? Really. :)
I live in Ohio and I can tell you that McCain MIGHT carry the state, but it will be a near-run thing, if he does. I don't foresee a landslide for Obama, but really, can ALL the polls be THAT WRONG?
On Rush Limbaugh's show today (I caught a few minutes while at lunch), he stated that Charlie Cook said he would quit as a political polster and get a job working at a fast food restaurant if he was wrong in his polling (picking Obama, of course).
I admire McCain greatly as a man, and I think Obama is a real schmuck in a lotta ways. And I will vote for McCain and Sarah! tomorrow. But I have no expectation that he will win. I vote to keep a clear conscience with myself, and everyone I ever knew who ever served, who sustained my right to vote. Brave men paid with their lives to keep us a free people. It is a sacred trust with me.
But sorry, John McCain just ain't gonna win. And it won't be any kind of "I told you so"; I wish I would be wrong come Wednesday morning.
-David
By , at
Mon Nov 03, 05:33:00 PM:
CP:
Whatever you're taking, can I get some?
Seriously, I hope that you are right, and I hope that this is another "Dewey defeats Truman" moment, with McCain winning. I also hope that if Obama wins and say garners only 51% of the popular vote, that the Democrats realize they don't have a mandate, moderate their legislative stance, think of the swing districts, and don't suffer from the hubris that the Clintons did in the early 90's and the Bush Administration did about a decade later and act reasonably. Otherwise, voters will flock to the Republicans in both 2010 and 2012.
Keep fighting the good fight.
The Centrist
By Cardinalpark, at
Mon Nov 03, 05:40:00 PM:
In response to the question regarding polling -
I have taken stats classes, and am not an expert, but I do remember that a cardinal rule of sampling to test a hypothesis was that you had to have a random sample. Polling does not succeed, however much they may try, in developing random samples. There is sampling bias - and I would posit it is dramatic - by both the sampler and the samplee. In the classic jar of marbles, the sampled marble can't throw itself back in the jar ir lie to you.
In order to adjust for these biases, different polling organizations do different things to adjust or the bias. But that only exacerbates the problem since the callers, statisticians and all the players (including media interpreters) are themselves contributing to sample bias.
In the end, its all horseshit.
Polls are a waste of time. The electorate is pretty simple. Each player is almost sure to get at least 45-48% unless they're a schmuck or fighting a successful incumbent. Any poll that says otherwise is BS. Especially if you accept that we're center right and that hasn't changed. McCain hasa better pitch to middle 4%-10% than Obama does. Let's face it, anyboy who's voting for Obama knows it and is bragging about it. So I suspect most of that middle breaks to McCain for lots of reasons - safety, experience, taxes, terrorism, etc.
But we'll see tmrw. At least gimme some credit for cojones. It's certainly not conventional wisdom.
By Dawnfire82, at
Mon Nov 03, 05:47:00 PM:
Modern polls almost always overstate Democratic leads. I'm sure you've seen reference to how far ahead Kerry was in the polls in 2004. He lost. Gore was ahead in 2000. He lost, too.
Only a few weeks ago the polls showed Obama with a 15 point lead in PA when it had previously been a tie. (which was the particular poll I called bullshit on) That gigantic lead has mysteriously evaporated. Obama in particular has been consistently over-estimated throughout this campaign when comparing polls to actual results. He lost states where he was ahead by 5 and 6 points 'in the polls' to Hillary.
So it's not unreasonable to think that states that are tied in 'the polls' will go McCain. It's also not unreasonable to think that states shown as 4-6 point leads for Obama will be virtually 50-50.
"Why would they stay in business after such a debacle... would you retain a person or an organization that was historically bad at its job?"
People still pay for palm and tarot readings and astrological maps.
Polls are useful for following large trends on relatively simple subjects, but they don't foretell the future. Unfortunately, that's what everyone wants.
I see polling organizations as an institutionalized augury-reading priesthood, like in ancient Rome. People look to them for wisdom on momentous decisions and they work their arcane little rituals to extract omens. When the omens are good for you, you wave and cheer and say, 'look, the polls agree with me!' When they don't, you say, 'you really believe that voodoo garbage?'
*shrug*
By , at
Mon Nov 03, 05:51:00 PM:
I thought until the October surprise of the supposed economic meltdown that McCain would win handily. I hope that will still be the case, though the nascent ascending trend he was enjoying to that point has undoubtedly been disrupted, largely because the blame for that fiasco was largely and inexplicably laid at the feet of the Republicans and hence on McCain. I think after digesting more information people are lately rethinking their assumptions and coming to different conclusions leading perhaps to new political preferences. We shall see.
In any case, I'm not convinced that an Obama win will be a total and unmitigated disaster. Long term it may be just what this country needs to discredit the illiberal far left and revivify conservatism.
(Interestingly, my verification word for this comment is pingink. Someone has a sense of humor.)
By , at
Mon Nov 03, 06:12:00 PM:
CP,
I'm with you. In my heart of hearts I expect that McCain/Palin will win. I'm glad to see someone who is willing to make these statements.
By , at
Mon Nov 03, 06:37:00 PM:
CP ... which is why the Obama camp is squirming with the lead the polls say they have. They do not believe it's enough to carry the day. I hope they're right.
By Jeff, at
Mon Nov 03, 07:24:00 PM:
McCain picks Palin and ties in the polls!
The economy collapses and he slides down.
He fights his way back up and the polls tighten.
The night before the election, Obama Grandma dies.
I think God wants Obama to be President. Not because He likes Obama. But because there isn't any way to get up the mountain without going all the way to the bottom first...
By , at
Mon Nov 03, 09:22:00 PM:
I admire your spirit, Cardinalpark, but I just can’t believe all the polls could be so far off. I’d be happy if Obama wins the popular vote by only about 5% and the Democrats wind up with about 55-58 Senate seats. The Senate is really important; it may be the only sanity check left after January 20.
By , at
Mon Nov 03, 09:41:00 PM:
I'd like to think you've nailed it, and my only real worry is the change in party ID (of about 3 points in the Dems favor) since the last election. Absent that change I'd bet the election would be a repeat of the last tilt, but I think McCain is going to have a tougher go. For the good of the country though, I hope you are right.
By CMT, at
Tue Nov 04, 01:36:00 AM:
While I too hope for a McCain victory, I find myself in the uncomfortable BLUE state of CT and hoping for what the pundits are calling an inside straight. Are the CNN talking heads being sincere or do they just want you to tune in from 6-9:30? Maybe they're playing both sides so they can later claim they called it, I think it's all uphill but I am not optimistic.
An interesting correlary to the argument that an Obama victory wouldn't be that bad because it would expose the liberals is that Reagan needed Carter. What 2012 GOP candidate would emerge from an Obama victory? Would Newt be the guy or would they tap a younger sort to go mano e mano against O2? Does Sarah become the resumptive GOP front-runner - even if Mac wins?
By , at
Tue Nov 04, 07:33:00 AM:
For a little dose of (realistic) optimism...
