Sunday, August 31, 2008
The Law of Conservation of Bounces
On the eve of the Republican convention, a new national poll suggests the race for the White House remains dead even.
A CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll released Sunday night shows the Obama-Biden ticket leading the McCain-Palin ticket by one point, 49 percent to 48 percent, a statistical dead heat....
“The convention — and particularly Obama's speech — seems to be well-received. And the selection of Sarah Palin as the GOP running mate, also seems to be well-received. So why is the race still a virtual tie? Probably because the two events created equal and opposite bounces — assuming that either one created a bounce at all,” says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland.
"Equal and opposite bounces" - I love that.
Or maybe political polls in August mean nothing.
8 Comments:
By 
Anthony, at
Sun Aug 31, 11:38:00 PM:
Or maybe political polls in August mean nothing.
That's my guess. Typically the Democrat leads in the summer, yet Republicans have won most of the time over the last 25-30 years.
Then again, if Democrats typically lead in the summer and Obama is only tied, maybe August polls do mean something.
By Assistant Village Idiot, at
Mon Sep 01, 12:09:00 AM:
Rasmussen has been accurate in the past. Take all others with doses of salt.
By D.E. Cloutier, at
Mon Sep 01, 01:17:00 AM:
Obama's campaign is in trouble. You can smell it.
1.That is one possible explanation for Andrew Sullivan's recent blogging behavior.
2. The recent behavior of Sullivan and others like him will prompt more women to support McCain and Palin.
3. McCain should get a small bounce from the Republican convention.
4. If I remember correctly, the Presidential candidate who is ahead in the polls on September 10 usually wins the general election.
5. The turnout of young voters at the polls often has been a disappointment to their favorite candidates in previous general elections.
6. On election day the "Bradley Effect" may come into play.
(I always thought Hillary was the tougher Democratic candidate. That's why I wanted to see her lose the race for the Democratic nomination.)
By davod, at
Mon Sep 01, 07:48:00 AM:
With a partisan media, Obama's funding will make a difference during the last weeks of the campaign.
The use of e-mail ad text mail may well increase the turnout of young voters.
The Republicans, or one of the surrogates, should be asking those on Dems text lists how many times a day they are text'd. How much money is automatically deducted from their credit cards. Just think what it will be like if Obama is elected. Being tracked by the Dems (Now the government), being told what to do all all the time by text.
By Dawnfire82, at
Mon Sep 01, 10:55:00 AM:
I simply don't trust that Obama's legions of 'young voters' can be trusted to get off their asses and actually vote. I suspect that part of Obamamania is simply trendiness, and many will stay home to sleep off hangovers or do homework and rationalize it because they are 'sure' that he'll win. After all, everyone they know likes Obama. Who in the world would vote for that old white guy?
By D.E. Cloutier, at
Mon Sep 01, 11:20:00 AM:
Jules Crittenden today:
"No wonder the latest polling as of today gives Obama only a 1-2 point lead. Which, when moderate Dem lying is weeded out, translates to a 10-point deficit."
Link:
http://www.julescrittenden.com/2008/09/01/attractiveness-gap-narrowing/
By 
, at
Thu Oct 23, 03:15:00 AM:
こちらいいですねー不動産投資
By , at
Thu Oct 23, 03:17:00 AM:
幸せに暮らすー浮気調査
