Sunday, August 31, 2008
A test for our times
This is the post at Daily Kos that alleges, with photographs, that Trig Palin is Sarah's grandson, not her son. It is persuasive enough that one has to allow for the possibility that it is true (partial refutation here).
One question will be whether the press leaves the story alone to bounce around the tabloids and the lefty blogs, or the mainstream media devotes resources to its resolution. Drudge has it, so the mainstream media may well pick it up.
If the story does turn out to be true, it is not obvious what the political consequence will be. I suspect it turns on how the Palin family reacts in the moment. Insofar as the story is wholly consistent with her convictions, Americans might respect her more for this.
In fact, is there a chance that the story is true and that John McCain knew it was true before he selected her? In a strange way, Palin's choice (if she did in fact falsify her last pregnancy to save her daughter and, in many ways, her grandson) is the sort of sacrifice that McCain would admire and see himself making in a similar situation. He might well have decided that if the story came out it would strengthen his ticket rather than damage it.
Brace yourselves.
CWCID: Andrew Sullivan, who has more than a little Palin Derangement Syndrome and is to some degree staking his reputation for seriousness on this story (if you doubt that, see Update #2 to this post). (MORE: Damage done, at least according to Dean Barnett.)
MORE: Sullivan is backing away, via the Anchoress.
39 Comments:
By 
Chris Lawrence, at
Sun Aug 31, 10:39:00 PM:
Sullivan still has a reputation for seriousness? Really? He's been in full meltdown mode ever since he came back from his vacation.
By 
, at
Sun Aug 31, 10:43:00 PM:
I agree that if the rumors or true, it might reflect positively on Palin....as a woman and mother, but not as a governor or a candidate.
We're talking about a sitting governor who _may_ have been walking around with a (small) pillow under her suit, maintaining an elaborate public deception for months.
If Palin feels so strongly about the moral issues involved with abortion and teenage pregnancy that she’d be willing to maintain this deception, how would we be able to take seriously anything she said, as candidate or VP, on these subjects ever again? As President, can we imagine what kind of litmus tests she might impose on judges and other appointees?
And one has to wonder - what else does she care about deeply enough to systematically deceive the public?
If the rumors are false and Palin's own account true, her decision not to seek care when her water allegedly broke in Texas - as a 44 year old woman in premature labor and already expecting complications - calls her judgment into serious question.
-mattt
By Ray, at
Sun Aug 31, 10:46:00 PM:
This is *hilarious*.
Does anybody think that Palin is egomaniacal, self-centered, and suicidal enough to accept a vice presidential pick if any story remotely like this one were true? We're not talking about somebody who's demonstrated the sliminess of John Edwards, here.
The weight of probability is overwhelmingly against this one. Still, I'm glad to see lefty bloggers occupying their time on something like this. Keeps them from thinking up useful responses.
By TigerHawk, at
Sun Aug 31, 10:48:00 PM:
mattt, I do not understand this:
If Palin feels so strongly about the moral issues involved with abortion and teenage pregnancy that she’d be willing to maintain this deception, how would we be able to take seriously anything she said, as candidate or VP, on these subjects ever again? As President, can we imagine what kind of litmus tests she might impose on judges and other appointees?
The story, if true, would be perfectly consistent with her views on both subjects, would it not? I think it makes her more serious on the issue, rather than less.
Your last point -- that her flight back to Texas reflected poor "judgment" -- is really dumb. Is it a stupider or riskier medical "judgment" than Barack Obama's smoking? Do Democrats really want to start pecking to death the medical decisions of Republicans when their own candidate is obviously an idiot when it comes to personal medical judgments?
By , at
Sun Aug 31, 10:52:00 PM:
I find it a bit odd that a 16 year old, if pregnant, would wear a form fitting outfit (b/c 16 year old girls are notoriously conscious, and pregnant ones even more so....)
But doesn't the birth certificate conclusively resolve the issue???
And what, the allegation would be that she lied to....say that she is the mother when she isn't; as opposed to edwards who lied to say he is not the father when he is???
The only part that seems odd is the water breaking part. If one is having a baby that is Downs Syndrome, I suspect the probability of a miscarriage is higher, and people try not to announce until they are pretty darn sure....
Still, she lacks Obama's deep voice, and something in our Reptilian brain likes a deep voice in a leader. that's the bottom line. (and we know something in Andrew Sullivan likes a deep voice....)
By Steve M. Galbraith, at
Sun Aug 31, 10:52:00 PM:
her decision not to seek care when her water allegedly broke in Texas - as a 44 year old woman in premature labor and already expecting complications - calls her judgment into serious question.
Serious question?
Serious? As in important?
Lordy, it is election season isn't it?
In an interview she'll confuse the EU with NATO and all of this will be so much nonsense.
By , at
Sun Aug 31, 10:53:00 PM:
Oh, and you are absolutely right about OBH's smoking - but I'm not sure the airplane travel after water broke would be the greatest idea - can't we find an OB/GYN - I'll check with one by next week.
By Larry Sheldon, at
Sun Aug 31, 10:54:00 PM:
I am starting to enforce a policy of dropping blogs from my list where the authors persist in quoting Sullivan, referring to Sullivan, or in any way, shape or form suggest that Sullivan's "emanations" are somehow important.
By Diane Wilson, at
Sun Aug 31, 11:10:00 PM:
Those pictures are no evidence at all. Sarah Palin runs marathons; she's not going to put on weight the way non-runners would. And she's certainly dressing to look professional, which would minimize the pregnancy until fairly late-term.
As for the daughter, she looks normal. There's less evidence for pregnancy there than on her mother!
This is just pure nastiness. With the usual corollary about ad hominem attacks indicating that Kos Kids, Sullivan, et. al. don't have anything real to back them up.
There's always value in reading what the (responsible) other side has to say, but Kos and Sullivan have been vast wastelands for years.
By , at
Sun Aug 31, 11:11:00 PM:
Wife wife was six or seven months pregnant before anyone even noticed. Maybe Palin agrees to DNA testing after Rielle and Edwards ... lol.
By , at
Sun Aug 31, 11:11:00 PM:
I think I'm with Larry. And since we're allowing for the "possibility" that this vile and scurrilous rumor is true, then I guess we have to allow for the "possibility" that this blog is hoping to drive traffic to its site by posting about it. Because there is no evidence whatsoever, just a despicable attempt to smear the woman in such a way that her candidacy will be derailed fighting off grotesque attacks on her family.
It's interesting to find that male bloggers have such old-fashioned attitudes about pregnancy and child-bearing. Because pretty much only a man would think that a 21st century mother would find it necessary to "hide" her daughter's pregnancy in this way to even consider this bizarre rumor as worthy of investigation.
By TigerHawk, at
Sun Aug 31, 11:31:00 PM:
Not trying to "drive traffic" or anything else, and I think that a comprehensive reading of this blog will indicate my strong support for John McCain and Sarah Palin. I do, however, read and link to lefty blogs, and not only to mock them. You have to know what the other side is thinking, and I believe in engaging in the conversation when I have the time (as I do over Labor Day weekend). In this case, I first thought that the stories were complete nonsense (see my post about Colmes below), and still think that the "judgment" argument is really, really dumb. But I also found the Kos post harder to discount entirely than I expected it to be, and that made me wonder what the political consequences of it might be. Sorry to have offended Sally and Larry.
By , at
Sun Aug 31, 11:52:00 PM:
Just to clarify:
From my understanding, she was leaking amniocentotic fluid. I'm not sure that this was a full-fledged "water broke"? When my first son was born, it was pretty obvious that my wife's water had "broken". The advice of her OB-Gyn was to:
1) Relax
2) take a shower and clean up
3) take your time and get to the hospital safely.
4) "Water" breaking does not always signify the immediate onset of labor. Perhaps Mrs. Palin had long periods of labor in the birth of her previous four children?
Sarah Palin has born four children before Trig. Maybe she knows her own body? Isn't that some kind of slogan of the Pro-choice movement, except in this case, I guess?
She had NOT gone into premature labor. When she arrived home (Alaska), labor had to be induced. Trig was born several weeks early.
This is a new low of the sort of misogyny that I thought was only supposed to be typical of Rethuglicans, like me. What moves people to think up this sort of trash, then publish it for thousands to read, with your name beside it?
Such as the Edwards scandal. That's depressing and sad beyond measure. I really don't wish to wallow in that either. I loathe John Edwards, but the things written about his "affair" seem incredibly cruel to his wife and family, considering the tragedy of her cancer. What's happened to us as a people that we seek out this vulgarity and infliction of pain on people in the public square? It's no wonder that many reasonable people would shun politics, and the concommittant ugliness and prying.
-David
By , at
Sun Aug 31, 11:55:00 PM:
Why would it be difficult to discount? What motive would the Governor have to hide her daughter's pregnancy? Or are we also to credit the idea that the child is a product of incest?
That's the other part of the narrative. Daddy rapes daughter, impregnates her and Mommy pretends to be pregnant to prevent it from being known. Keeping in mind that people who were really this depraved would simply have the baby aborted, not pursue some convoluted charade to hide the baby's existence.
And to credit this rumor, one has to believe that an anonymous poster at a lefty website is the only one who has the truth on this. No one in the Alaskan media or the governor's enemies in the state (and she has a few) would ever have picked up on any gossip like this. Doctors, medical staff, family members, neighbors, schoolmates, teachers, many others would have to have been complicit. Or completely bamboozled. But then Alaskans are a bunch of ignorant rednecks anyway, right?
And the really horrible part is that there's not really an effective way to knock this down. Shall we have the teenage daughter undergo a hymen check? Since the rumor is that Dad is the Dad, DNA wouldn't do it, right? Would testimony from the delivery room nurse and doctor would do that? But they could have been bought off or confused or just lying.
All that really matters here is that once this goes viral it tends to have the desired effect, it gets out there, in the consciousness of people who don't read blogs, who don't really follow the news. The Governor is a liar, her husband is a child rapist. Didn't I hear something like that, I don't know, maybe I shouldn't vote for her.
I agree that sunshine is the best disinfectant for these kinds of rumors. But I think those who are going to post responsibly about it should do some investigating first, and not just pass it on as a hmmm...what's this about rumor.
By csl222, at
Sun Aug 31, 11:55:00 PM:
When I came to this topic I thought I had stumbled onto a kook blog - very disappointing when I associate you with special insights into people and situations. That makes your credulity here hard to accept. Obviously Palin's enemies are hurting her where they know she is vulnerable, through her children. Despicable! Your post has just unwittingly helped them do it by spreading the poison.
I have been annoyed since Colmes wrote his "danger to the infant" screed. What do people think happens when a woman's "water breaks"? It is not a crisis situation in and of itself and its usually just a leak. But the cushy fluid cradling the baby is no longer sterile so one wouldn't want the condition to go on for more than a day or two. Riding home in a private plane, to have the baby with one's family and personal doctors was not a risky thing to do. Plus, Gov. Palin was a veteran of 4 previous births and knew what to expect!
Regards from a mother of 3
By Georg Felis, at
Sun Aug 31, 11:57:00 PM:
Two things I'm positive about: One, the official Obama campaign has absolutely nothing to do with this wacky conspiracy theory. Two, now that the seed is planted, expect to see no end of weird oddball stories that say Palin's child is really the cloned Bigfoot baby brought to term in a secret Alaska lab by genetic manipulation with the support of Saudi money in order to (fill in total wackjob plot here). Now that the seed of doubt is planted, no amount of "proof" can disprove it, no photos, no ultrasound, no sworn testimony of the doctor, no video of the delivery, nothing.
I would like to apologize to Sarah Palin on behalf of humanity for the behavior of the non-potty trained people in the rumor industry. The really bad news? You will be representing them in the White House too.
By Dawnfire82, at
Mon Sep 01, 12:02:00 AM:
I can't believe that you give/gave this absurdity any credit. Don't you have a bullshit detector? And doesn't it work at DailyKos of all freakin' places?
I *hope* this goes mainstream, so the McCain/Palin campaign can brutally destroy it and expose the rabid, indescribably disgusting behavior that the liberals have vomited forth in the last few days in response to Gov. Palin's selection, which I can only surmise is the result of panic.
That'll be a bounce worth watching.
Ref: http://ace.mu.nu/archives/272062.php
By janemariemd, at
Mon Sep 01, 12:11:00 AM:
This is just so preposterous on so many levels. The creator and perpretrators clearly don't know much about 1) pregnancy, 2)teenage girls, and 3) the rather common occurrence of out-of-wedlock births these days, that are no longer considered shameful.
Here's the deal on 1) pregnancy, as I see it:
This was Ms Palin's 5th (FIFTH!!!!) pregnancy; she is very fit, running many miles per week in between pregnancies at least; she knew what she was doing and was in touch with her doctor; she leaked amniotic fluid a month early per a newspaper article, and so wasn't at term (and therefore bigger with her pregnancy). Pregnant women can vary greatly in their silhouettes. I saw at least one picture of her in a sharp suit and she certainly looked pregnant to me.
The rate of Down Syndrome babies in 40-something mothers is quite high compared to younger women--something like 1 in 20. I'm sure an occasional teenage mom has a Down's baby too, but it would be a much MUCH more rare an occurrence.
2) Many if not most teenage girls have a bit of a rounded tummy, unless they are dedicated athletes or dancers--it's called ESTROGEN! Alot of 'em also have what I consider to be horrendous taste in clothes (I'm not talking about the Palin girl here specifically)--so these things show. Just go hang out in your local mall and watch the packs of teenagers mill around, and you'll see what I mean.
Finally, 3) Why would the Palins hide a pregnancy in a daughter, and go to all that trouble to SECRETLY adopt their grandson--this just doesn't sound like something they would do, and why should they? We live in times where it is common for teenagers to have their babies and they are raised by grandparents; who hides this anymore? And really, is it possible to hide such a thing in their local community? Could they be such a happy-appearing family with such a thing kept secret?
Obviously I am deeply skeptical about all this. To me the real question is this:
When does a public figure have to address a potential scandal, that appears to be a complete and scurrilous fabrication?? That is created out of thin-air by feverish opponents??
By , at
Mon Sep 01, 12:16:00 AM:
Here's some evidence contra the "possibility" that the rumor is true. Posted by a blogger on 4/29/08 about meeting the Governor on 4/27/08:
"Of course I had to check out the “Hottest Governor in the US” and quickly turned to see her pregnant (she has since had her baby) with bags and daughter in tote. Then it struck me as odd. Why is the Governor of Alaska in the airport and preparing to get onto my commercial flight?"
http://www.polartrec.com/node/3944
By Papa Ray, at
Mon Sep 01, 12:26:00 AM:
Yea, count me as one disappointed by this post. I would have never, ever expected it.
One other thing. My daughter has had two children. One was born early and it was over 24 hours that she spent in the hospital before they induced birth. Her second child came 6 hours after her water broke (not leaking) but a flood.
That is not conclusive proof of anything but my experience with births. It has been too long for me to remember the time lapses in my own two children.
CRS is creeping up on me each day.
Papa Ray
West Texas
USA
By , at
Mon Sep 01, 12:30:00 AM:
Clarification: the meeting in the Fairbanks airport was in March 2008. The reporter is thinking about while she sits in another airport in April, 2008.
"While delayed in the New Orleans Airport, I reflect back to my airport surprise when leaving Fairbanks after the PolarTREC Orientation in March."
The report then goes on to mention seeing the Governor, noting her pregnancy and that she had already had the baby.
http://www.polartrec.com/node/3944
By Assistant Village Idiot, at
Mon Sep 01, 12:31:00 AM:
When a woman's water breaks, OB/GYN's like to have delivery within 24 hours because of increased risk of infection. Labor will be induced if it does not start spontaneously.
Ack, why am I saying this? There must be an OB/GYN who blogs and is covering this already.
Take a breath, folks. Think how many people would have to be in on this scheme to pull it off, and how many of them would have their careers ruined for participating in it.
By , at
Mon Sep 01, 12:33:00 AM:
"The story, if true, would be perfectly consistent with her views on both subjects, would it not? I think it makes her more serious on the issue, rather than less." -TH
Of course the question here is not of consistency or seriousness, but of deception.
"Is it a stupider or riskier medical "judgment" than Barack Obama's smoking?" - TH
Yes, by a very wide margin. I'm not an OBGYN, but for 15 years I've worked as a fireman-EMT, assisted in the delivery of a handful of babies and in transporting scores more expecting mothers to the hospital. Gov. Palin would have to have been either grossly undereducated or grossly irresponsible - again, as a 44 year old woman with four previous children, expecting complications and a month premature - even to keep the speaking engagement in Texas after her water broke, let alone embark on a multi-leg cross-country plane flight that prevented her from getting medical care for (according to one timeline) 22 hours. {@ another commenter - "leaking amniotic fluid" means the sac has been breached, and is treated the same as a full flow of waters for purposes of emergency dispatch by my agency.)
Really it's difficult to believe Palin would be either that undereducated, or that unmindful of her responsibilities to her family and her constituents - it would be out of character for a woman who is in many ways really quite impressive, even to this Democrat. Which is the main reason I find the rumors credible.
-mattt
By TigerHawk, at
Mon Sep 01, 12:35:00 AM:
Sorry to have disappointed those of you who have objected to the post. I was trying to speculate about the underlying political consequences, and was fairly certain that since it appeared on Drudge (with 24 million readers per day the last time I looked) I was not actually spreading the rumor to any meaningful degree. Still, it certainly was not my intent to lend the story any credence.
By Andrew X, at
Mon Sep 01, 12:37:00 AM:
TH - I do have to express some surprise about this post. Props for "read(ing) and link(ing) to lefty blogs, and not only to mock them. You have to know what the other side is thinking, and I believe in engaging in the conversation when I have the time"...
Doing the grunt work so we don't have to.
But this is a preposterous story. The very idea that a governor of a state could even begin to think she could pull off such a stunt, and keep it a secret pretty much forever, is absurd. And commenters are correct that if it did come to light, we can respect her morals all day long... her political career is finished. Done. Over. Kaput.
She and McCain are smart enough to know this. She wouldn't do it, and she sure as hell would not have accepted his VP offer if she had. ("Gosh, I've successfully embezzled one million dollars over the past year. Let me now go ahead and accept that new job that will entail microscopic scrutiny of my finances and job performance over that very same year. Yeah, that's a smart plan!")
I should speak for the record and say that as Tom Cruise is a Scientologist, bin Laden is a crazed Muslim fanatic, and Al Gore is a militant warmenist, I am a rabid, foam-at-the-mouth, inusfferable ANTI-conspiricist. They are (damn near) every one of 'em, absolute horse-s#@t, spoken by bunches of people for the sole purpose of setting themselves apart from, and ABOVE (no small thing) "the masses" who are too dumb to see the truth, yabba yabba yabba, blah blah blah.
Conpiriacies are VERY difficult to maintain forever, and thus are rarely embarked upon. And they get blown more than likely when they do. (Three, count 'em three, people knew about Bill and Monica. That was one too many.) The baby thing as spelled out, is a preposterous scenario, and no one with any sense should buy it for a minute.
By Andrew X, at
Mon Sep 01, 12:39:00 AM:
By , at
Mon Sep 01, 12:49:00 AM:
In re Mr. Matt, the fireman/pregnancy expert:
Yet another man weighs in with expert analysis of of the Governor's pregnancy.
So according to Mr. Fireman we must countenance the rumors of some weird cover-up or conclude that the Governor is an irresponsible nitwit.
That the child was born healthy (leaving aside the Down syndrome) is apparently not evidence enough that the Governor understood the situation well enough to make proper judgments.
By Peter, at
Mon Sep 01, 01:03:00 AM:
I'm with Druu222. Look at the number of people who would have to keep quiet for this to work.
If people didn't ever talk it would be one thing. They do talk, though. For the grand pregnacy caper to work Governor Palin would have had to send her daughter out in the woods to have the baby by herself. Someone would talk, otherwise. We don't need an OB-GYN, we need a few mothers to report on the number of folks that see a women from the time she checks into the hospital to the time she leaves.
By , at
Mon Sep 01, 02:38:00 AM:
Hmmm. I despise trashy talk as much as anyone, but if I were a betting man...
Better call Houston.
By , at
Mon Sep 01, 09:25:00 AM:
Insofar as the story is wholly consistent with her convictions, Americans might respect her more for this.
Respect her? For what? Allowing her grandson to call the wrong woman Mommy? Encouraging their daughter NOT to take responsibility for her actions? Denying her the ability to parent her child while at the same time burying her in shame for the rest of her life? This is the makings of a B movie. A very bad B movie.
Despite the religious right's giddiness (along with the majority of voters who think with their d*cks), this selection is a collosal mistake. Listening to the right spin her credentials is hilarious if not frightening:
Cindy McCain on Fox yesterday: Gov. Palin has foreign policy experience because of Alaska'a proximity to Russia. Oh. My. God.
By , at
Mon Sep 01, 10:07:00 AM:
BTW, rumors of her non-pregnancy have been swirling in the Alaska press/public since Trig was born. The left bloggers simply stumbled on it and ran with it, which kind of makes you wonder how well the Governor was vetted. This, along with TrooperGate, and comments like this:
Alaska Business Monthly: We've lost a lot of Alaska's military members to the war in Iraq. How do you feel about sending more troops into battle, as President Bush is suggesting?
Palin: I've been so focused on state government, I haven't really focused much on the war in Iraq. I heard on the news about the new deployments...."
I heard on the news about the deployments...?
Well, golly. I'm sure all the soldiers from Alaska were thrilled to know she listens to the news. Let's give her points for that! Heck, let's make her VP.
God help us.
By , at
Mon Sep 01, 10:16:00 AM:
This story is obvious trash.
The fact that anyone gives it serious thought is only because they inwardly want more dirt to come out during the elections. Proverbs 26 says that the words of a gossip are like choice morsels going down to a man's inmost parts.
Our press is known for making things up but this is just gross character assassination.
Dave
By , at
Mon Sep 01, 10:29:00 AM:
This is lefty nonsense and can probably be traced back to Hussein and his staff. However, it does open up an old issue that has never been adequately addressed, Chelsea Clinton's paternity. Sullivan mentions "the release of medical records" for presidential candidates. Well, Willie NEVER released his. The most likely fact he was concealing was that he was impotent. That, coupled with the fact that Chelsea has a jaw line that matches that of Webster Hubbell and the\at Hillie and Web had a close personal relationship at Rose Law firm while Willie was hustling black hookers, should be enough to raise Chelsea's paternity to the same level of the baby's maternity.
By Larry Sheldon, at
Mon Sep 01, 10:40:00 AM:
On driving traffic to people like Sullivan--in the old days we called that feeding the trolls. And Sullivan in not even a roll. He has nothing coherent to say. I can understand (not to be confused with "agree with") an assertion that a commentator needs to read Kos and people like him. I don't understand feeding people like Sullivan and Colmes at all.
On "her decision not to seek care when her water allegedly broke in Texas - as a 44 year old woman in premature labor and already expecting complications - calls her judgment into serious question."
What happened to "between a woman and her Doctor?"
We had three so I think I am as qualified as any male to comment--as I understand the story, it was not a "burst", it was a "leakage". She did call the doctor. Now here I start guessing....I'm guessing that the flight she took home was the next one available to her and that the doctor said something like "absent [list of possible symptoms] you should be OK doing what ever is comfortable for you. If {list of things] happens, or you don't feel comfortable, you should probably check in at a hospital for evaluation there."
It may surprise some of the youngsters in the crown, but pregnancy is not a debilitating disease, Down syndrome is not a complication of pregnancy, and women have been managing without doctors and males telling them how to do it for quite a while. Some of my close kin were born, lived and died never having been in the same airspace as a doctor.
So, back to the point I am really upset about--if you "need" to drive traffic to people like Sullivan, and you "need" their drivel and drool to fill your own space, then you don't need me and I don't need you.
Your choice. I'm out (and gone, if it comes to that.)
By , at
Mon Sep 01, 11:22:00 AM:
I'm very disappointed that Tigerhawk would lend credibility to this vile rumor by repeating it.
By , at
Mon Sep 01, 12:17:00 PM:
With due respect to the regular posters, I don't see linking this story as any way out of line. In fact, exposing these types of vile rumors and the bloggers behind them are just what needs to happen. Destroy any illusion of credibility they have, and demonstrate just how swarmy and low the Left is. The hypocrisy of these types of attacks disgusts me.
By , at
Mon Sep 01, 12:24:00 PM:
Well, well, well. Looks like Sarah Palin may want to rethink her abstinence only position!
Please pass the popcorn....
P.S. I too agree with TH's decision to post about this story.
By , at
Mon Sep 01, 12:57:00 PM:
Well, ain't that a kick!!
But of course to the conservative right, it won't matter that she turned her back on her abstinence only schooling, or that she had sex outside of marriage, or that she had unprotected sex. The only thing that matters is that she's keeping the baby!! Heckuva job, Sarah.
Pity that she won't be able to have a WH wedding:)
By , at
Tue Sep 02, 02:13:00 AM:
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