Wednesday, July 23, 2008
Movements Afoot?
As a single act, the Israeli government's decison to release this criminal seems to fly in the face of typical Israeli policy, and stands as an insult to the victims.
However, I am not inclined to see this as an isolated act. Something's clearly going on. Israel bombs Syria; Syria arranges Mugniyah's demise; Iraq settles down materially with the Surge; Assad is invited to and attends a European conference arranged by Sarkozy; Hezbollah and Israel engage in the aforementioned prisoner exchange. There are many small fragments suggesting tremendous effort to defuse regional tensions among the Arab nations and with Israel.
Alongside this keep in mind we have 4 political leaders in search of legitimacy and a legacy - Assad, Abbas, Olmert and Bush are all late in their political lives. Furthermore, Assad (western educated) may be tired of his isolation and Syria's impoverished condition, fearing the personal impact of both Western enmity and domestic instability. Having lost Lebanon as a wealthy colony, Assad is rumored to have ended the domestic fuel subsidies which allowed his cronies to profit from overseas fuel sales at market - he can't let them get away with it anymore.
Of course, all of this may mean nothing. But it does seem to me that these disparate and perhaps unconnected acts suggest that Syria may be weighing coming in from the cold.
10 Comments:
By 
, at
Wed Jul 23, 02:51:00 PM:
Well, yes. If the Israelis plan to bomb Iranian nuclear sites (and they must credibly threaten it for diplomacy to work, and actually do it if it does not) then detaching Syria from Iran is critical, as is neutralising Hezbollah. Iran's main counter to Israel is indirect through Syria, Hezbollah and Hamas (backed by Syria). To do that abandoning Lebanon to joint Hezbollah/Syrian control would be a price worth paying for the US and Israel, as it was in 1990 ahead of the second Gulf War. As would be offering the Golan Heights. Neutralising Iranian special groups in Iraq (needed anyway) is also important as it reduces their ability to counter an attack with deniable actions. That reduces Iran to threatening to attack oil routes in the Gulf - something they will NOT do, since it would destroy their own exports and hence economy and bring massive US retaliation - albeit they will threaten it energetically as a bluff to try to deter any attack. Whether the joint approach works is an open question, but it seems clear to me that is what is intended.
By , at
Wed Jul 23, 03:36:00 PM:
Syria still has to earn the right to come in from the cold.
Mugniyah was only a start, and offing Kuntar would be a fitting continuation.
By , at
Wed Jul 23, 03:48:00 PM:
Forget about Israel (please), but what about Feinstein?
Diane Feinstein, that red-dog, lying, conniving, egg-sucking traitor to all things good and appropriate that remain in this country keeps sending me badly generated computer missives (more than likely composed with the help of another perfidious back-stabbing computer-geek tool of the Capitalist scum who secretly run this country after installing their latest turncoat puppet stooge) informing me not only that she received my latest diatribe describing in no tentative or vague terms just what I think of her salacious and duplicitous actions, but also informing me in full-on “spin” mode of formless and misleading lies she surely must have hauled from her ass, as if offering trinkets and glass beads to impervious primitives. She does this frequently, and sometimes I think she does it in a malicious manner, as if to, in the common parlance of the street, blow smoke up one’s backside, not to mention it’s a breach of the publics trust and against the better desires of her constituents who elected her to that apex of government service with the design that she would perform her allotted duties faithfully, only to taint the once honorable position with her own exacting style of mendacity and belial.
Perhaps next time one of youse are in D.C., you would have a free minute to stop by her senate office and thereby deposit upon the outer doorsill of her den of perdition one ordinary paper bag filled with the personification of my sum totality of feelings about her job performance, courtesy of both Lily (Chihuahua) and Kobe (Border Collie) after their early morning “constitutional”, ignited with the help of one commonplace BIC lighter, and henceforth, after knocking on said office door, run like those other treasonous red-dog infidels, who at the very least, I hope they don’t get anything they asked for on Christmas!
By , at
Wed Jul 23, 04:04:00 PM:
"I am not inclined to see this as an isolated act. Something's clearly going on."....Ah, hope springs eternal. I would like to be able to share your hope, but, unfortunately reality too often intrudes. Hope for the best, or at least better, and prepare for the usual. I'm not yet inclined to offer common sense on the part of the Syrians just yet.
By 
Dawnfire82, at
Wed Jul 23, 04:06:00 PM:
"Assad, Abbas, Olmert and Bush are all late in their political lives"
Assad only came to power (officially) in 2001 and is merely 42. He's got plenty more years to go.
And Syria has a long history of pretending to play, and then backing away until they get some goodies, and then pretending again. Given the nature of Western political systems, (a new crew every few years; i.e. fresh rubes) this continues to work.
"The Truth About Syria" by Barry Rubin is a harsh but clear and rational examination of the Syrian system and the practices that keep that system running. The central thesis is that the Syrian regime has evolved in such a way that it actually requires a state of conflict in order to maintain itself. (if that sounds absurd to you, perhaps the news that Egypt has been in a 'State of Emergency' that grants supreme control to the President for 26 years now will also shock you)
http://www.amazon.com/Truth-about-Syria-Barry-Rubin/dp/1403982732/ref=pd_bbs_sr_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1216843410&sr=8-1
By Cardinalpark, at
Wed Jul 23, 07:04:00 PM:
DF 82 and others: all fair comments. a couple of responses.
Hope alone doesn't spring eternal, but Israeli direct bombing of Syria is a relatively new escalation which might change Syria's historical notion of "pretending to play." If Qaddafi could flip, this guy could do so much more easily. Bombs fell on his poker game.
And while he may be young, I think his time runs short. This is not his father's son. If the local junta types aren't getting creased, and his domestic people are building shantytown's, the clock is ticking. And if the stuff hits the fan, I think he'd rather liver in London or Paris than Tehran. So I think he's trying to make a deal.
It's a speculation, but not crazy. His old man would have done it. Shoot, his old man did it in PG I.
By Dawnfire82, at
Wed Jul 23, 08:41:00 PM:
"but Israeli direct bombing of Syria is a relatively new escalation"
Israeli-Syrian 'incidents' are actually pretty common. From fighter dogfights to SAM strikes to buzzing the President's house to cross-border shootouts... both nations are still technically at war and they behave like it. The details of this one were just leaked in order to justify it. (esp. since the Syrians claimed it was an agricultural facility that was hit)
"His old man would have done it. Shoot, his old man did it in PG I."
That's exactly the kind of 'pretending to play and then backing off' that I was referring to. That particular bait and switch game got special mention in the book I referenced precisely because it convinced so many people.
Not to say that the Syrians are incapable of making a deal, but why would they? Funding trouble through proxies and acting belligerent has paid off for them so far. Allowing arms shipments to Hezb Allah and knocking off the occasional Lebanese has influential people convinced that the 'road to peace runs through Damascus.' That's a position of strength.
Things'll have to get a lot more dangerous before the Syrians will crack.
By Steve M. Galbraith, at
Wed Jul 23, 09:30:00 PM:
It seems to me that the (near) silence in Iraq is indicative of some Iranian and Syrian action (or non-action).
I simply can't believe that if Iran wanted to keep things boiling a bit, that they couldn't.
The folks at Stratfor say that some grand agreement between Iran and the US is in the works.
I'm sceptical.
By , at
Wed Jul 23, 10:39:00 PM:
The one thought I haven't heard yet is: Did anyone consider the Syrian Strike was intentional on Syria's part in that Iran set up Assad so they Iran could observe and see 1) what type of weapon israel would strike with; 2) what their stategy would be. This possibility seems more plausable to me.
Assad and his intelligence service's assassination of Hariri has too much of an overt intention to be written off, as a bad choice. There was greater intention there.
I will be truely convinced that Assad wants to come out of the cold when he tosses the terrorists out of Damascus such as Hezbollah who is supplied from Iran via Damascus.
I mean really if Assad wants to come out of the cold, do you really Pelosi taking credit for it since she met with him???
DTG
By , at
Fri Jul 25, 06:11:00 PM:
You are ahead of the curve, CBS just posted the following story validating your post.
http://www.cbsnews.com/blogs/2008/07/25/roundup/entry4294629.shtml?source=search_story
