Monday, March 24, 2008
Obama's popular vote in context
This is very interesting:
In the race for the most popular votes in the Democratic Party's presidential primary contests, Sen. Barack Obama's lead over Sen. Hillary Clinton is about 711,000 votes -- not including Florida or Michigan -- according to Real Clear Politics.
Of Sen. Obama's 711,000 popular-vote lead, 650,000 -- or more than 90% of the total margin -- comes from Sen. Obama's home state of Illinois, with 429,000 of that lead coming from his home base of Cook County.
That margin in Cook County represents almost 60% of Obama's total lead nationwide.
Now, the "popular vote" in an aggregation of Democratic primaries and caucuses spread over -- dare we say "many" -- months is not technically or legally relevant. I am not even sure that it reflects the popular will within the Democratic party, given all its inherent limitations. The aggregated popular vote, though, has taken on some significance in the argument over whether the Democratic "super delegates" ought to vote in accordance with their individual preferences, those of their own constituents, or the popular vote across time and space. In other words, the aggregate popular vote is largely fodder for spin, and that is why this deconstruction is so interesting.
10 Comments:
By 
, at
Mon Mar 24, 10:31:00 PM:
Not the first time Cook County has played a pivotal role. Recall Mayor Daley the Elder's remark regarding JFK's carrying Illinois with a little help from his friends.
Which may help explain why my downstate Illinois grandfather had a visceral dislike of Chicago politicians.
By 
D.E. Cloutier, at
Mon Mar 24, 10:46:00 PM:
"fodder for spin"
Still shilling for Hillary, TH? Where is the post about Hillary's claim that she ran across a tarmac to avoid sniper fire?
By TigerHawk, at
Tue Mar 25, 05:25:00 AM:
"Still shilly for Hillary, TH?"
Not really. Like most Americans, I had talked myself into not being disgusted with her a couple of months back, but that bit of optimism was ephemeral, and my more cynical readers were right. Indeed, one of the new joys of this campaign season is watching the left declare that they are "shocked, shocked, to find that the Clintons will do anything, no matter how harsh, to win."
Anyway, I first heard the sniper story on "the Factor" last night; Mrs. TH and I were having a good time with it, actually, so perhaps I should have blogged that as well. Oh well, we miss a lot of stories around here.
By Georg Felis, at
Tue Mar 25, 09:22:00 AM:
No, Hillary will not do "anything, no matter how harsh, to win." She will do anything she thinks she can get away with, no matter how harsh, to win. Admittedly she thinks she can get away with anything, so its a very small difference...
By , at
Tue Mar 25, 11:29:00 AM:
Obama would have us believe he "has it won", on the strength of his victory in Cook County, but Hillary and Obama are actually both in exactly the same spot-- neither has it won, or can win it, short of the convention.
Right now there's this huge push to try to get one of them to retire from the field, just so the lucky winner (whomever that is) can turn their attention to McCain, and start "moving to the center" for purposes of winning in the the fall. But, really, why? The Democrat will win anyway, most probably, and not either one of Obama or Hillary has yet convinced a majority of Democrats to support them. I look forward to a continuing contest and a meaningful convention.
Obama's issues with Rezko, Wright, Meeks and others yet to come dictate we not cede anything to him.
By honestpartisan, at
Tue Mar 25, 12:56:00 PM:
If we're going to discount states or counties that give their candidates a "favorite son (daughter?)" edge, then why not apply the same to Arkansas and New York?
By , at
Tue Mar 25, 03:24:00 PM:
If we're going to discount states or counties that give their candidates a "favorite son (daughter?)" edge, then why not apply the same to Arkansas and New York?
Good point. This also brings up the failure of "favorite son" Al Gore to carry his home state of Tennessee in 2000.
You do realize that Obama managed to be the only one on the ballot for his first legislative campaign ,don’t you? Chicago, Chicago….
By , at
Tue Mar 25, 06:06:00 PM:
...and, also his second campaign.
By , at
Tue Mar 25, 07:14:00 PM:
C'mon, you wanta see votes for Hussein? Wait until the Pennsylvania primary! Philadelphia, alone, will deliver several million Obama votes. So important is the democratic process to Philadelphia voters that many of them will vote two or three times, with some precincts delivering for Obama, perhaps, vote totals more than 120% of the total registered voters.
Philadelphia will deliver more votes for Obama than Chicago, Detroit and New Orleans combined!
By , at
Tue Mar 25, 08:09:00 PM:
And this is why the Presidential elections are determined by the electoral system...
